Predictions: June 21st - 25th System (SiSFM Market - Greta)

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Ok this one has been split out of the June 15 thread.
Looks like a corker on EC this afternoon, IMO

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!228!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012061200!!chart.gif



msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012061200!!chart.gif


msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012061200!!chart.gif
 
Last edited by a moderator:

badabing

Hard Yards
Jun 13, 2011
189
0
66
120
Sydney
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

I'm liking this more and more... Better than the closer system. Temps look colder lower and snowier. Looking at maybe 15-25cm IMO
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!228!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012061212!!chart.gif


Looking exceptional on this mornings EC run.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

MickM

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2001
4,446
3,735
363
Gordon, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Yep, I like EC & GFS while BOM has nothing.

Hopefully the majority win!
 

Vermillion

Pool Room
Ski Pass
Nov 13, 2005
74,245
29,577
1,563
120
Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

AXS has been over this one for almost a week now. I have liked it from the start. LWT is lining up nicely now, it was a bit slow to pick this up but i'm seeing more agreement on later model runs. >30cms with a nice SW flow at the end, this is a system for everyone (well every resort).
 

Donza

Pool Room
Apr 21, 2004
72,779
16,620
1,525
45
wollongong
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

spag looks kinda flat this arvo...
hence arvo gfs runs look meh

wait for EC
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

IMO 3pm EC has pushed this out to the 23rd.
Not looking as nearly as cold either.
frown.gif
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Gerg

One of Us
Sep 8, 2001
1,061
237
213
Brissy
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Scratchy pessimist (IMO). Ensemble is divergent == wait...

spag_f192_shsm.gif
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Bugski

A Local
Jul 15, 2003
18,970
7
638
Hot Ham
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Two things.

1) This will be awesome
2) What the hell is with the IMO in every post, Has everyone lost their marbles since I was away?
 

Dacer

Hard Yards
Mar 19, 2008
356
17
68
Sydney
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Bugski said:
2) What the hell is with the IMO in every post, Has everyone lost their marbles since I was away?

Green people get angry if you don't use them.....IMO
 
Last edited by a moderator:

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,201
11,478
813
Bonbeach, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Bugski said:
Two things.

1) This will be awesome
2) What the hell is with the IMO in every post, Has everyone lost their marbles since I was away?

1. MAYBE
2.CC makes us do it..... Apparently the public takes our comments as fact.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Bugski

A Local
Jul 15, 2003
18,970
7
638
Hot Ham
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Most of the public wouldn't know what IMO stood for. The safest course is always to follow whatever Sandy, WJ or Conservative Forecaster say anyway, if they are still around. Verm's not bad either.
 

badabing

Hard Yards
Jun 13, 2011
189
0
66
120
Sydney
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Well most of the public are idiots if they take a prediction as a factual event that is going to happen.

It's true a lot of people wouldn't know what IMO would mean... especially the older generations.

On topic, I think this system could give quite a lot of snow. And down to low levels too. But the 21st is looking marginal... IMO
 

filski

Pool Room
Ski Pass
Mar 14, 2011
41,066
24,219
1,563
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Gerg said:
Scratchy pessimist (IMO). Ensemble is divergent == wait...

spag_f192_shsm.gif

This. Look at the difference between the controls only 12hrs apart. It's got no idea.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Vermillion

Pool Room
Ski Pass
Nov 13, 2005
74,245
29,577
1,563
120
Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Bugski said:
Most of the public wouldn't know what IMO stood for. The safest course is always to follow whatever Sandy, WJ or Conservative Forecaster say anyway, if they are still around. Verm's not bad either.

Sandy doesnt post up much in AUS winter weather threads. WJ doesnt much either and I havent seen CF in ages here. I was actually thinking the other day all the good guys have left
frown.gif
I've been off the mark this year aswell, although I still think this one has some goodness in it.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
70,025
27,855
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

IMO, this one doesn't look like pushing far enough north and the pressure not getting low enough for a big dump. Should be cold enough in the SW flow that follows though....
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

IMO still lots of variations in the models.
GFS has it earlier, EC later ...

12062018_1312.gif


mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!228!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012061312!!chart.gif


Certainly not looking as strong as it was earlier.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Majikthise

Sage
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1970
32,429
19,443
1,063
Blue Mts
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

we have entered into the model dip zone for the period, so showing anything mildly promising is a plus.
in janes words..
"Signs of a big, strong, cold low late in the week."


 

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,707
1,487
1,063
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Friday 22nd

GFS

bcf72041.png
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

IMO EC is looking healthier today for this period, especially the 23rd and 24th (looks cold).
 

Katanga

First Runs
Jun 12, 2011
509
1
0
Unina Beach
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Models seem to be showing the leading high ridging South into the Tasman on Wed/Thurs which is similar to what happened in the lead up to the current system (14th to 19th).

If the leading High is squeezed south again, it would lead to a slowing of this system as the models seem to have shown over the last few days and it could force the best parts SE before they hit the Alps.

This one has major potential IMO but I am not sold at the moment.
 

Bugski

A Local
Jul 15, 2003
18,970
7
638
Hot Ham
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Katanga said:
If the leading High is squeezed south again, it would lead to a slowing of this system as the models seem to have shown over the last few days and it could force the best parts SE before they hit the Alps.

True. But I wouldn't worry about that happening with this IMHOWDNMABUWTIAGA
biggrin.gif
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

IMO looking terrific on EC this morning.
Cold, plenty of moisture.

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!180!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012061412!!chart.gif


msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012061412!!chart.gif


seems to be translating to 30cm for Hotham & Buller, 40cm for Thredbo on yr.no

GFS starting to come on board too

image.php


12062200_1412.gif
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Donza

Pool Room
Apr 21, 2004
72,779
16,620
1,525
45
wollongong
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

spag_f192_shsm.gif


Spag showing better trends. Obviously some divergence..
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Majikthise

Sage
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1970
32,429
19,443
1,063
Blue Mts
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

i reckon this will only look better 4 days out, and it's looking pretty f'n good now.
 

toughnut

Hard Yards
May 18, 2008
206
52
98
41
Sydney
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Pretty good alignment between GFS and ACCESSG for this period of time IMO. Haven't seen a system this season with good convergence between models this far out as what's showing now. Everything crossed for this one
tongue.gif
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Hermon

One of Us
Aug 24, 2008
2,290
1,555
363
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

00Z GFS looks very nice- All systems GO from about midday Thursday IMO with a deep Low just South of Tasmania and 850HPa temps down to around -2 degC. Let's hope there is decent precip associated with it.
 

Katanga

First Runs
Jun 12, 2011
509
1
0
Unina Beach
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Likeing this one a lot more today.

GFS is now showing the leading high drifting SE over NZ rather that sliding directly south between Tas and NZ as it was yesterday.

Access looks even better showing the leading High remaining Nth of NZ so this is all systems GO IMO.

GFS is also showing signs of a Low forming off Perth on Thursday with the low pushing south in front of the Trailing High.

This has major potential of stalling the trailing high for a day or two and allow some additional fronts to sneak in front of the trailing high and give us a solid few days of snow.

This is looking good for the first system on Thurs/Fri and I think we could possibly get a good surprise for follow up fronts IF the WA low does stall the trailing high.

Spag plot also looks good IMO.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Dunno, GFS appears to showing it slipping south like this weekend's system

12062300_1500.gif


Mind you I don't have a lot of faith in GFS, so defer to EC run out shortly.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Katanga

First Runs
Jun 12, 2011
509
1
0
Unina Beach
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

No doubt that the low will slide SE as it gets closer to Tas, but I dont think the southerly slide will be as drastic as we saw with the first few fronts of the current system.

The thing that killed this weekends system is the position of the leading high centered well south of NZ as seen below.

The current charts for the 21st system has the high a lot further Nth and further east so it is looking good IMO.

IDY00030.201206150000.png
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Mmm, EC pushing the goodness out further IMO
Although it still looks ok on the 21st & 22nd.

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!228!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012061500!!chart.gif


msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012061500!!chart.gif


eek.gif
850hPa temps of -4 !
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Hermon

One of Us
Aug 24, 2008
2,290
1,555
363
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Latest ACCESS-G looks sweet IMO. Very cold temps and sustained Southwesterlies with a deep fetch for several days. The synoptic almost looks like August 10 2005... IMO.
 

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2000
18,201
11,478
813
Bonbeach, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Hermon said:
Latest ACCESS-G looks sweet IMO. Very cold temps and sustained Southwesterlies with a deep fetch for several days. The synoptic almost looks like August 10 2005... IMO.
Fetch does look good. Looks open to further frontal progression given the position of trailing high. Like.
Make believe tho.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Rush

Pool Room
Jul 26, 2000
45,291
13,663
1,525
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

This afternoon both ACCESS and GFS were both predicting huge bombing lows passing over Tasmania. EC had nothing to do with it.
 

FourSquare04

A Local
Sep 11, 2001
6,504
4,219
563
40
Wollongong
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

IMO going on the latest EC run, it looks to be struggling with the system a little which is odd for EC, anyway let's see how it goes with the next 24 to 48hrs of runs.....

Feel free to post ACCESS or GFS charts for some eye candy anyone....
 

MickM

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2001
4,446
3,735
363
Gordon, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

I have the right month now Foursquare !!

I am no expert but the models seem a little confused this morning. One thing though, there is potential for a sustained cold period IMO
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

IMO looking a little weaker on EC this morning.
Looking plenty cold, but moisture might slide south.
mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!192!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012061512!!chart.gif


GFS just looks a little weird, but you'd still say snow for this period
12062306_1518.gif
 
Last edited by a moderator:

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,707
1,487
1,063
Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

Gfs looks great for fri sat imo
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass