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Predictions: June 21st - 25th System (SiSFM Market - Greta)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ok this one has been split out of the June 15 thread.
    Looks like a corker on EC this afternoon, IMO

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    I'm liking this more and more... Better than the closer system. Temps look colder lower and snowier. Looking at maybe 15-25cm IMO
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Nothing showing up on GFS for this as of yet. IMO
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    [​IMG]

    Looking exceptional on this mornings EC run.
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Yep, I like EC & GFS while BOM has nothing.

    Hopefully the majority win!
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    AXS has been over this one for almost a week now. I have liked it from the start. LWT is lining up nicely now, it was a bit slow to pick this up but i'm seeing more agreement on later model runs. >30cms with a nice SW flow at the end, this is a system for everyone (well every resort).
     
  7. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #7 skiflat, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    spag looks kinda flat this arvo...
    hence arvo gfs runs look meh

    wait for EC
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO 3pm EC has pushed this out to the 23rd.
    Not looking as nearly as cold either. [​IMG]
     
    #9 Claude Cat, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  10. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Scratchy pessimist (IMO). Ensemble is divergent == wait...

    [​IMG]
     
    #10 Gerg, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  11. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Two things.

    1) This will be awesome
    2) What the hell is with the IMO in every post, Has everyone lost their marbles since I was away?
     
  12. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Green people get angry if you don't use them.....IMO
     
    #12 Dacer, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    1. MAYBE
    2.CC makes us do it..... Apparently the public takes our comments as fact.
     
    #13 The Plowking, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  14. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Most of the public wouldn't know what IMO stood for. The safest course is always to follow whatever Sandy, WJ or Conservative Forecaster say anyway, if they are still around. Verm's not bad either.
     
  15. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Well most of the public are idiots if they take a prediction as a factual event that is going to happen.

    It's true a lot of people wouldn't know what IMO would mean... especially the older generations.

    On topic, I think this system could give quite a lot of snow. And down to low levels too. But the 21st is looking marginal... IMO
     
  16. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    This. Look at the difference between the controls only 12hrs apart. It's got no idea.
     
    #16 filski, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Stay on topic.

    Refer to Weather Forum Winter rules if in doubt.
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Sandy doesnt post up much in AUS winter weather threads. WJ doesnt much either and I havent seen CF in ages here. I was actually thinking the other day all the good guys have left [​IMG] I've been off the mark this year aswell, although I still think this one has some goodness in it.
     
    #18 Vermillion, Jun 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    This mornings trailing high positioning on GFS is almost perfect.
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO, this one doesn't look like pushing far enough north and the pressure not getting low enough for a big dump. Should be cold enough in the SW flow that follows though....
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO still lots of variations in the models.
    GFS has it earlier, EC later ...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Certainly not looking as strong as it was earlier.
     
    #21 Claude Cat, Jun 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    we have entered into the model dip zone for the period, so showing anything mildly promising is a plus.
    in janes words..
    "Signs of a big, strong, cold low late in the week."


     
  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Friday 22nd

    GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #23 skiflat, Jun 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Snow forecasting porn
     
  25. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO I like that a lot.
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #26 skiflat, Jun 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO EC is looking healthier today for this period, especially the 23rd and 24th (looks cold).
     
  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    noice!
     
  29. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Models seem to be showing the leading high ridging South into the Tasman on Wed/Thurs which is similar to what happened in the lead up to the current system (14th to 19th).

    If the leading High is squeezed south again, it would lead to a slowing of this system as the models seem to have shown over the last few days and it could force the best parts SE before they hit the Alps.

    This one has major potential IMO but I am not sold at the moment.
     
  30. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    True. But I wouldn't worry about that happening with this IMHOWDNMABUWTIAGA [​IMG]
     
    #30 Bugski, Jun 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  31. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    This system is looking good for tassie snow!
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO looking terrific on EC this morning.
    Cold, plenty of moisture.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    seems to be translating to 30cm for Hotham & Buller, 40cm for Thredbo on yr.no

    GFS starting to come on board too

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #32 Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    [​IMG]

    Spag showing better trends. Obviously some divergence..
     
    #33 Donza, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    i reckon this will only look better 4 days out, and it's looking pretty f'n good now.
     
  35. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Pretty good alignment between GFS and ACCESSG for this period of time IMO. Haven't seen a system this season with good convergence between models this far out as what's showing now. Everything crossed for this one [​IMG]
     
    #35 toughnut, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  36. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    00Z GFS looks very nice- All systems GO from about midday Thursday IMO with a deep Low just South of Tasmania and 850HPa temps down to around -2 degC. Let's hope there is decent precip associated with it.
     
  37. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Likeing this one a lot more today.

    GFS is now showing the leading high drifting SE over NZ rather that sliding directly south between Tas and NZ as it was yesterday.

    Access looks even better showing the leading High remaining Nth of NZ so this is all systems GO IMO.

    GFS is also showing signs of a Low forming off Perth on Thursday with the low pushing south in front of the Trailing High.

    This has major potential of stalling the trailing high for a day or two and allow some additional fronts to sneak in front of the trailing high and give us a solid few days of snow.

    This is looking good for the first system on Thurs/Fri and I think we could possibly get a good surprise for follow up fronts IF the WA low does stall the trailing high.

    Spag plot also looks good IMO.
     
    #37 Katanga, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Dunno, GFS appears to showing it slipping south like this weekend's system

    [​IMG]

    Mind you I don't have a lot of faith in GFS, so defer to EC run out shortly.
     
    #38 Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  39. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    No doubt that the low will slide SE as it gets closer to Tas, but I dont think the southerly slide will be as drastic as we saw with the first few fronts of the current system.

    The thing that killed this weekends system is the position of the leading high centered well south of NZ as seen below.

    The current charts for the 21st system has the high a lot further Nth and further east so it is looking good IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #39 Katanga, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Mmm, EC pushing the goodness out further IMO
    Although it still looks ok on the 21st & 22nd.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] 850hPa temps of -4 !
     
    #40 Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  41. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Latest ACCESS-G looks sweet IMO. Very cold temps and sustained Southwesterlies with a deep fetch for several days. The synoptic almost looks like August 10 2005... IMO.
     
  42. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    That would be quite nice
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Caveat. 7+ days out.
    Current make believe system does look good tho.
     
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Fetch does look good. Looks open to further frontal progression given the position of trailing high. Like.
    Make believe tho.
     
    #44 The Plowking, Jun 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    This afternoon both ACCESS and GFS were both predicting huge bombing lows passing over Tasmania. EC had nothing to do with it.
     
  46. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO going on the latest EC run, it looks to be struggling with the system a little which is odd for EC, anyway let's see how it goes with the next 24 to 48hrs of runs.....

    Feel free to post ACCESS or GFS charts for some eye candy anyone....
     
  47. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    I have the right month now Foursquare !!

    I am no expert but the models seem a little confused this morning. One thing though, there is potential for a sustained cold period IMO
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO looking a little weaker on EC this morning.
    Looking plenty cold, but moisture might slide south.
    [​IMG]

    GFS just looks a little weird, but you'd still say snow for this period
    [​IMG]
     
    #48 Claude Cat, Jun 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  49. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    It's a weird one this one. I think it's quite hard to pick where the majority of the moisture will end up.
     
  50. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Gfs looks great for fri sat imo