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Predictions: June 21st - 25th System (SiSFM Market - Greta)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    The models are really struggling with the position of the trailing high which is reflected in the current models.

    We have a strong low moving in from the Indian Ocean towards Perth on the 18th (mon) that is messing with the trailing high.

    Tues sees a south ocean low heading NE towards perth to inject some cold air.

    By Thurs, the Indian Ocean low is peaking below the WA hook.

    By Sat, the Indian Ocean Low is hitting the west Vic coast and is carrying some nice cold air thanks to the southern ocean low on Tues.

    I can see some decent snow Sat and Sun followed up by 2 or 3 fronts early next week (25th - 27th).

    The best part of this system is the follow up fronts for Mon and Tues IMO.

    Strong SW conveyor Mon & Tues IMO
     
  2. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    This evening's EC run ramps up the precipitation on Thursday/Friday - possibly 30-40cm of snow although temps aren't brilliant IMO. Super-cold airmass follows thru on June 24-26 with temps forecast to be -7 or so at Hotham and Buller! Will be interesting to see how all this pans out IMO.
     
  3. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Precip for the first front is looking sweet.

    Timing on this one will slow a day or two imo so the initial system should hit Sat IMO.

    For the sake of putting my balls on the line, I am thinking 60cm of fresh by the 28th
     
  4. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Temps and moisture looking good. LM might get some substantial snow.(IMO) [​IMG] Finally! [​IMG]
     
    #54 snow777, Jun 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Not looking as good on the BOM charts though. Hopefully all models line up with the best scenario!!
     
  6. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    I don't see this as looking too good early. Wednesday/Thursday/Friday will be warm and precip totals appear limited, which may be a blessing. Looking to Sunday 24th and onward for some quality.
     
  7. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    BOM is still pessimistic saying snow only higher than 1700m
     
  8. Austin powers

    Austin powers Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    So nothing above 1700M? [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #58 Austin powers, Jun 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  9. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Things usually get worse before they get better IMO.

    Look back to the 23 July 2003 event at Buller - it rained & rained and drove it to the brink, then it went berserk and continued well into october.
     
    #59 CarveMan, Jun 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  10. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Yep agreed. That's the famous night it started snowing at Falls and they got over 100cm in about 48 hours.
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/posts/1088969
     
    #60 themaninblack, Jun 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO EC still looking good.

    yr.no showing 40 to 50cm from the 21st through to the 25th.
    First front is not so cold, so I think that will work for 1500m up, but the follow-ups are plenty cold enough to snow to reasonably low levels.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #61 Claude Cat, Jun 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  12. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    06Z GFS suggests 850HPa temps down to -4degC over Vic by Monday June 25. Some decent precipitation too, although ACCESS-G isn't so interested. IMO one thing is for certain - a cold outbreak is coming...
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    [​IMG]
     
    #63 Claude Cat, Jun 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  14. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    smokin'
     
  15. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Looking good for Thursday/Friday. Might be a season starter for Buller & Lake Mountain.
     
  16. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    That's what I'm hoping for. I like the 50-75mm in CC's map up there.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Looking great on EC this morning, IMO
    Snow for 5 days, season starter.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    GFS from 3am run

    22nd front

    [​IMG]

    Front for the 25th

    [​IMG]
     
    #68 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    No reason to comment further on this one, IMO [​IMG]
     
    #69 Vermillion, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  20. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    mmm mmm embedded lows
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    [​IMG]
     
    #71 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    I'm worried by the ensemble forecasts via the spag.
    [​IMG]
     
    #72 Donza, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Please explain
     
  24. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Looking at the comparitive charts at the moment ACCESS, EC and the UKMO have almost identical MSLP and thickness values at +96 and +112 hours. ACCESS suggests little pre-frontal rain as well.

    The system on the 25th arguably looks even better, although for this run ACCESS and GFS are more bullish than EC in terms of MSLP and the amount of southerly fetch.

    EC Ensemble shows most of Victoria and lower NSW with 850 hPa temps < 0 from +96 hours onwards.

    Much reason to be optimisitic for Victorian skiers at this point.

    IMO blah blah blah
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    I would have expected a bit more.
    Considering the models have such a deep southerly fetch pushing up on sunday I would expect to see quite a bulge in the 500hpa temps.
    Yet its showing a ridge?.
    weird
     
    #75 Donza, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Your spaghetti was not showing before, now it is!
     
    #76 skiflat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  27. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    The Frog isn't getting too excited about this period, but has some interesting predictions out past Friday 29th... Is anyone else seeing this? New prediction thread?

    Snowatch 7-14 Forecast
     
    #77 PowWow, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  28. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    the frog will jump on board once he knows everyone else has.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Stay on topic.
     
  30. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #80 skiflat, Jun 18, 2012
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  31. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Well Jane Bunn has laid it on the line: She's going for 45-75cm for the coming week. A bit optimistic IMO, particularly given the flop of the past few days...
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    IMO I'd be disappointed with less than 30cm out of this one. 50cm or more is certainly possible.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Oh easily possible
    I don't think the last system was a flop at Perisher.
    She called it 100% correct.
     
  34. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    I think there is too much under-forecasting going on these days. IMO it seems like most forecasters lately go really low on the estimates to play it "safe" or something, but I don't think they seem to realize that putting out very low estimates for every system makes them totally wrong for every system, not simply "cautious forecasters". I say, if it looks like it'll produce 30-50cm, forecast it that way, why play it safe?

    And to keep it on the topic of this time period:
    50cm+ totals look to be on the cards atm, especially considering the surprises we've seen recently in terms of more precip then progged (did not see the approx 12mm on sunday at perisher anywhere in the charts, and again good one jane).
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    As of this mornings charts im happy to call 2 feet + at Perisher and the top of Thredbo, and somewhere around 30-40cms for Buller.
     
  36. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    What does the freezing level look to be like at NSW resorts, mainly Thredbo?
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    Looks around 1400m on the 21st.
    (IMO)

    [​IMG]

    Down to 800m after than and again around 1400m on the 25th

    [​IMG]
     
    #87 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  38. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    It looks like Thredbo could be top-to-bottom (almost) this weekend based on the above charts (IMO). I also predict that I might be making an early dash Saturday morning and do the Demo Days for SkiMag at Perisher [​IMG]
     
    #88 PowWow, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: June 21st - 25th System

    WeatherChaser experimental GFS forecast

    [​IMG]
     
    #89 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    5 day duration for perisher could be a 3 feet storm
     
    #90 Donza, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence why I said 2 feet+. Could be 7 days straight of snow.
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Say we say 5 day duration- this is perisher focus
    Now ...say we say a .5cm per hour average over that five days.
    Now...when the freezing level is 800 we times it by 4...1000 x 3 1200 x 2
    Thats my rough maths.
     
  43. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Hmm Tossing up heading down this weekend. Roads will be insane hey?
     
  44. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This - everybody looked at the complete upside of her forecast and IMO made arses of themselves. She qualified it with 1700m snow levels and got it pretty right.
     
    #94 CarveMan, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  45. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS upgrades precipitation and depth of the cold pool over Vic. Keeps the flow fairly Westerly- thus Buller, Falls and Hotham could fare very well IMO.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did you say Westerly and Buller 'well'?
     
  47. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting discussion with a long time Buller regular the other day, he contends that Westerlies are fine if they contain embedded fronts. But a plain Westerly flow is poo.
     
  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The westerly belt has to be at a higher latitude for this to happen.
    It used too.
    It seems to hover around 50 degrees south nowadays.
     
    #98 Donza, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  49. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    With 850HPa temps being consistently below 0 degC - yes IMO.
     
    #99 Hermon, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    well thats a pretty set of lines
    train track synoptics
     
    #100 Donza, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013