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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.
First week of July last year it rained at Buller at -4c in a Westerly
Yes i'll agree with this one. With a solid embedded set of systems you'll get snow at buller without crazy low temperatures. With a W flow you will get rain, last year it was -2C in the village and raining then freezing hard once it hit something.
IMO looks like a typical NW on the 21st
Before swinging to the SW later on the 22nd
This arvos GFS
wait to you see it rendered on WZ
(it looks meh on expert sorry CC)
has some crazy cold pool tracking around the NW alps.
right on cue for selwyn
Thats the link
pr0n IMO. I may steal that for my blawg.
Well, I really stuffed up the progression of this one.
Things look to have sped up a lot since Sat thanks to the leading high drifting East now and not drifting SE. It is also moving on a lot quicker than progged a few days back.
I'll stick with my 60cm call (PB) and sit back to enjoy the show.
Thickness of 534 on Saturday, nice.
Yeah thats what I was looking at.
Would be prob sub 5340 as well.
Thats a funny cold bubble.
Even sunday the 534's get pushed up from the South.
Great chance of snow for Jindy and surrounds on that sorta setup.
IMO that would see to below 800m.
IMO 24th looking pretty special too.
Snow down to 600m or less in Tasmania
Looking good for my cheapy trip to Selwyn in a few weeks, but... what's everyone's thoughts on skiing this weekend? Will the weather be too crap to enjoy freshies?
When was the last time we seen a system with sub 5400 thickness over the Alps for a Duration longer than 72 hours..?
Off the top of my head I'm struggling.
August 25th 2010 was around 84 hours or so...
June 22th last year..around 72 hours...maybe more..
but besides that...
The whole setup reminds me of a particularly epic week in August 2001, IMO.
Work with a cloud seeder who has just been called in for a Thurday night midnight 12 hour shift.
Yep that one was a ripper. Buller went from grim snowmaking to full cover almost overnight. Ran into dibl0c on Bull Run bowl on 'Big Wednesday'.
Then about a fortnight later I ruined my ankle & missed the rest of the season, but it melted as quickly as it arrived.
EC progression on afternoon run, is pure snow porn. IMO
850hPa temps of -4 on the 25 right over the alps.
This is obviously Jane's "persistent snow will continue for days and days, becoming heavier for each front or trough that comes through. Freeze levels are 1200 metres or below from Thursday afternoon"
Looks too good to be true... Could well be the season starter. 60cm will open up a lot of terrain at PB.
60cm will open up a lot of terrain at the You Yangs or Mt Dandenong!
And fix the grass at Thredbo and Buller!
4 day bom chart is the best looking chart I have seen in ages. Not one big fall but successive 10-15cm falls I reckon- and 3 or four at that. Hope its cold enough for the first lot of pre frontal as well.
Looks to be not too windy either on the Thursday. Could be good accumulation on all aspects.
if only GFS would plot this chart correctly
2/GFS moisture is the general rule imo
Really starting to look good now IMO. Sunday is peaking just a little late though... a slightly earlier peak will see snow to 500m IMO. Although it will be down to 1000m at least next weekend, I'm thinking.
It's all happening just after my last exam... no stopping me now!!!
I think we will see a little snow down to 500m as it currently stands on Sunday. Lets see how it pulls up in a couple of days, but 850hPa temps of <-4 (EC) and <-5 (GFS) are showing up for Sunday.
(IMO of course)
I'm just getting nervous for the next downgrade which is bound to happen (I'm guessing it'll come tommorow morning with all this excitement building). From past experience/fizzer's, it seems systems never deliver the amount predicted in the best set of charts.
IMO it's important not to get hung up on totals - microclimates and last minute eventualities can lead to disappointment. Look at this one holisitcally - very good chance of a reasonable fall of snow that will be followed up by good snowmaking temperatures.
Is someone able to pass on an IMO for Baw Baw for this period. Might head up before the school holidays start. Thanks
More often than not, it seems like its the microclimates that deliver the exceptional snow totals that aren't actually in the forecasts (except for buller). When large amounts of moisture, cloud seeding and very cold temperatures come together, fascinating things can happen.
IMO Baw Baw will do well in the later days of the storm as it swings more SW. Snow levels no worries.
Check this out & look as it transitions to Sunday's part of the storm: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2012061800_ANZ_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_RH
Correct. IMO Baw Baw should get about 20cm from Sunday through Tuesday. I'm not sure how much of Thurday's front will fall as snow for Baw Baw, but I'd suspect 10cm from that alone.
Thanks for that will see what happens over the weekend and take it from there. Cheers CarveMan
And people, please remember, we're not actually up to the first "actual" day of winter yet, so anything we've had, or that we get, prior to June 22nd is a complete bonus! Even up to the start of July it's a bonus.
Perisher was lovely today, I snuck one of the last lifts in and once I was off the hill at around 5.05pm could already see snowmaking on Front Valley. It's much colder here in Jindy than this time last night...
I am predicting 1.5m of snow accumulations above 1800m in lee of the wind or above from Tuesday til Tuesday week. This system feels like last July all over except two weeks early. Hence this season will be finished by mid July. IMO
Its gonna be a windy series of embedded fronts. Perisher and Thredbo will get the most as they benefit from the Main range.
Cheers I was just looking at the thickness lines... following a front it is often the case the thickness rises above 5400, but snow is still falling at 1200m. That's even better.
This is already shaping up to be fantastic... to me moisture is the only question. Models have consistently been suggesting no shortage of cold air IMO... I'd say 10cm as an absolute minimum out of this period at this stage.
Then Perisher and Thredbo will get ripped apart by Sundays southerly. Mmm were to go. Any Secret spots.
Relax! We can't say anything about the rest of the season based on an early season weather pattern. I've been foolish enough to pick a bad season based on April weather, when it's turned out alright. Just wait and see!
If you see the isobars in the synoptic charts 10cm would get vaporized by the wind. No one is talking about the wind. Charts suggest very windy conditions.
I was being cynical
Strictly that is not true.
Officially in Australia winter starts on June 1st.
From an astronomic sense you are correct. In UK the solstice is considered mid-winter.
Meteorology seasons start on whole months, so that would be 1st of June. Apparently.
Stay on topic
Don't reckon Thursday will be that windy. 15 kntsish imo atm on bom
Wind and snow is fine anyway
anyone wanna have a stab at a wind prediction for southern end of pittwater on Sunday between 1.30 and 3.30