Predictions: June 21st - 25th System (SiSFM Market - Greta)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,723
    Likes Received:
    42,230
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    First week of July last year it rained at Buller at -4c in a Westerly [​IMG]
     
    #101 CarveMan, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    72,329
    Likes Received:
    27,028
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Yes i'll agree with this one. With a solid embedded set of systems you'll get snow at buller without crazy low temperatures. With a W flow you will get rain, last year it was -2C in the village and raining then freezing hard once it hit something.
     
    #102 Vermillion, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    72,329
    Likes Received:
    27,028
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    [​IMG]
     
    #104 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO looks like a typical NW on the 21st

    [​IMG]

    Before swinging to the SW later on the 22nd

    [​IMG]
     
    #105 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    #106 Donza, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  7. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,723
    Likes Received:
    42,230
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    pr0n IMO. I may steal that for my blawg.
     
  8. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2011
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Unina Beach
    Well, I really stuffed up the progression of this one.

    Things look to have sped up a lot since Sat thanks to the leading high drifting East now and not drifting SE. It is also moving on a lot quicker than progged a few days back.

    I'll stick with my 60cm call (PB) and sit back to enjoy the show.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    #109 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    Yeah thats what I was looking at.
    Would be prob sub 5340 as well.
    Thats a funny cold bubble.
    Even sunday the 534's get pushed up from the South.
    Great chance of snow for Jindy and surrounds on that sorta setup.

     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO that would see to below 800m.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO 24th looking pretty special too.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Snow down to 600m or less in Tasmania
     
    #112 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2010
    Messages:
    169
    Likes Received:
    55
    Looking good for my cheapy trip to Selwyn in a few weeks, but... what's everyone's thoughts on skiing this weekend? Will the weather be too crap to enjoy freshies?
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    Concur.

    Pop quiz
    When was the last time we seen a system with sub 5400 thickness over the Alps for a Duration longer than 72 hours..?
    Off the top of my head I'm struggling.
    August 25th 2010 was around 84 hours or so...
    June 22th last year..around 72 hours...maybe more..
    but besides that...
     
    #114 Donza, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  15. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    2,035
    Likes Received:
    1,071
    The whole setup reminds me of a particularly epic week in August 2001, IMO.
     
  16. loweee

    loweee One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,849
    Likes Received:
    676
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Work with a cloud seeder who has just been called in for a Thurday night midnight 12 hour shift.
     
  17. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,723
    Likes Received:
    42,230
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Yep that one was a ripper. Buller went from grim snowmaking to full cover almost overnight. Ran into dibl0c on Bull Run bowl on 'Big Wednesday'.

    Then about a fortnight later I ruined my ankle & missed the rest of the season, but it melted as quickly as it arrived.
     
    #117 CarveMan, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC progression on afternoon run, is pure snow porn. IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    850hPa temps of -4 on the 25 right over the alps.
     
    #118 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  19. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2004
    Messages:
    2,620
    Likes Received:
    448
    Location:
    Victoria
    This is obviously Jane's "persistent snow will continue for days and days, becoming heavier for each front or trough that comes through. Freeze levels are 1200 metres or below from Thursday afternoon"
     
    #119 kimberlee81, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  20. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    36,265
    Likes Received:
    14,659
    Looks too good to be true... Could well be the season starter. 60cm will open up a lot of terrain at PB.
     
  21. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2004
    Messages:
    2,620
    Likes Received:
    448
    Location:
    Victoria
    60cm will open up a lot of terrain at the You Yangs or Mt Dandenong!
     
  22. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2011
    Messages:
    189
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    And fix the grass at Thredbo and Buller!
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    4 day bom chart is the best looking chart I have seen in ages. Not one big fall but successive 10-15cm falls I reckon- and 3 or four at that. Hope its cold enough for the first lot of pre frontal as well.
     
  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Looks to be not too windy either on the Thursday. Could be good accumulation on all aspects.
     
  25. Scarecrow86

    Scarecrow86 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2004
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    [​IMG]

    mmm tasty

    if only GFS would plot this chart correctly [​IMG]
     
    #125 Scarecrow86, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    .
    2/GFS moisture is the general rule imo
     
    #126 The Plowking, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  27. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Really starting to look good now IMO. Sunday is peaking just a little late though... a slightly earlier peak will see snow to 500m IMO. Although it will be down to 1000m at least next weekend, I'm thinking.

    It's all happening just after my last exam... no stopping me now!!! [​IMG]
     
    #127 ice_man, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I think we will see a little snow down to 500m as it currently stands on Sunday. Lets see how it pulls up in a couple of days, but 850hPa temps of <-4 (EC) and <-5 (GFS) are showing up for Sunday.
    (IMO of course)
     
    #128 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  29. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    356
    Likes Received:
    17
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'm just getting nervous for the next downgrade which is bound to happen (I'm guessing it'll come tommorow morning with all this excitement building). From past experience/fizzer's, it seems systems never deliver the amount predicted in the best set of charts.
     
  30. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,723
    Likes Received:
    42,230
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    IMO it's important not to get hung up on totals - microclimates and last minute eventualities can lead to disappointment. Look at this one holisitcally - very good chance of a reasonable fall of snow that will be followed up by good snowmaking temperatures.
     
  31. priderock

    priderock Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2010
    Messages:
    115
    Likes Received:
    13
    Is someone able to pass on an IMO for Baw Baw for this period. Might head up before the school holidays start. Thanks
     
  32. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    356
    Likes Received:
    17
    Location:
    Sydney
    More often than not, it seems like its the microclimates that deliver the exceptional snow totals that aren't actually in the forecasts (except for buller). When large amounts of moisture, cloud seeding and very cold temperatures come together, fascinating things can happen.
     
    #132 Dacer, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  33. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,723
    Likes Received:
    42,230
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    #133 CarveMan, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Correct. IMO Baw Baw should get about 20cm from Sunday through Tuesday. I'm not sure how much of Thurday's front will fall as snow for Baw Baw, but I'd suspect 10cm from that alone.
     
    #134 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  35. priderock

    priderock Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2010
    Messages:
    115
    Likes Received:
    13
    Thanks for that will see what happens over the weekend and take it from there. Cheers CarveMan
     
  36. priderock

    priderock Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2010
    Messages:
    115
    Likes Received:
    13
  37. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2004
    Messages:
    2,620
    Likes Received:
    448
    Location:
    Victoria
    And people, please remember, we're not actually up to the first "actual" day of winter yet, so anything we've had, or that we get, prior to June 22nd is a complete bonus! Even up to the start of July it's a bonus.
     
  38. motbackwards

    motbackwards First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2012
    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    0
    Perisher was lovely today, I snuck one of the last lifts in and once I was off the hill at around 5.05pm could already see snowmaking on Front Valley. It's much colder here in Jindy than this time last night...
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    okay

    I am predicting 1.5m of snow accumulations above 1800m in lee of the wind or above from Tuesday til Tuesday week. This system feels like last July all over except two weeks early. Hence this season will be finished by mid July. IMO
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    Its gonna be a windy series of embedded fronts. Perisher and Thredbo will get the most as they benefit from the Main range.
     
  41. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Cheers I was just looking at the thickness lines... following a front it is often the case the thickness rises above 5400, but snow is still falling at 1200m. That's even better.

    This is already shaping up to be fantastic... to me moisture is the only question. Models have consistently been suggesting no shortage of cold air IMO... I'd say 10cm as an absolute minimum out of this period at this stage.
     
    #141 ice_man, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    Then Perisher and Thredbo will get ripped apart by Sundays southerly. Mmm were to go. Any Secret spots.
     
  43. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    [​IMG] Relax! We can't say anything about the rest of the season based on an early season weather pattern. I've been foolish enough to pick a bad season based on April weather, when it's turned out alright. Just wait and see!
     
    #143 ice_man, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    If you see the isobars in the synoptic charts 10cm would get vaporized by the wind. No one is talking about the wind. Charts suggest very windy conditions.
     
  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,826
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Location:
    South
    I was being cynical
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Strictly that is not true.
    Officially in Australia winter starts on June 1st.
    From an astronomic sense you are correct. In UK the solstice is considered mid-winter.
    Meteorology seasons start on whole months, so that would be 1st of June. Apparently.
     
    #146 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  47. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2011
    Messages:
    189
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    [​IMG] Stay on topic
     
    #147 badabing, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Don't reckon Thursday will be that windy. 15 kntsish imo atm on bom
    Wind and snow is fine anyway
     
    #148 The Plowking, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Fixed [​IMG]
     
    #149 The Plowking, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  50. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,733
    Likes Received:
    1,979
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    anyone wanna have a stab at a wind prediction for southern end of pittwater on Sunday between 1.30 and 3.30 :)