1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Predictions: June 21st - 25th System (SiSFM Market - Greta)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,616
    Likes Received:
    1,706
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    anyone wanna have a stab at a wind prediction for southern end of pittwater on Sunday between 1.30 and 3.30 :)
     
  2. Style Doggie

    Style Doggie Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    213
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    I think a sou-wester with a sneaky sou-easter from Careel Bay as you sail past.
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,803
    Likes Received:
    1,413
    Location:
    South
    [​IMG].

    Look at the new synoptic charts issued from your reliable sources and the wind vanishes. He He.

    At least it doesn't look like last years July blast anymore. Brrrrr

    Who knows.
     
    #153 7wombathead, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,803
    Likes Received:
    1,413
    Location:
    South
    Something moderately big could happen
     
  5. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    If we predict Baw Baw to get, say, 10cm by Sunday and more in the following days, how would St Gwinear do from this system? From what I understand, Gwinear does not always do well from Baw Baw systems...
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    GFS has gone "all in" on this one this morning.

    [​IMG]
     
    #156 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    69,401
    Likes Received:
    49,485
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    That's a pretty significant upgrade on moisture, even from what was suggested yesterday no??
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO GFS is still bouncing this around. 9pm run was a downgrade.
    72 hours out GFS goes all in, it's SOP for this model.
    EC remaining pretty consistent.
     
  9. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    11,645
    Likes Received:
    11,698
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    Forecast from yr.no has backed off on moisture for Fridays front. Outlier IMO, next EC will be interesting. Will it ramp up moisture similar to GFS? Sunday is certainly looking very cold though, 850-hpa temps approaching -6 on the Mainland and -8 in Tasmania, thickness of 5200 at the peak. Sea level snow for southern Tassie?
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,827
    Likes Received:
    25,117
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    GFS all over this one, looking at 20cms on Thurs and Fri then top ups the next few days then Monday up to 20cms again before clearing. LWT flat for this period, weird. I'm talking main range/perisher here.
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    69,401
    Likes Received:
    49,485
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Pretty!!!!
    [​IMG]
     
    #161 mick chopps, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    9am GFS has the high moving in and squashing the follow-up on Sunday south. IMO no other models are showing this.
    Jane still likes it too.
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Location:
    wollongong
    9am is the worst model
    Imo.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    9am & 9pm in the same boat.
     
    #164 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,942
    Likes Received:
    250
  16. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Really looking fantastic this morning IMO. Thursday is looking very good precip wise, I can't really see too much of it falling as rain over most resorts, BoM forecasting snow to 1200 metres.

    Sunday is looking like a very good follow up, a cold surge of air which looks to me like snow to quite low levels in Tasmania, probably to about 800 metres in southern Victoria.

    Tuesday looks like yet another follow up, but I'm afraid the high will move in too quickly. If Tuesday does hit hard, I would expect parts of Gippsland to have flood problems again [​IMG] If not, at the very least it will be cold for the next week or so.
     
    #166 ice_man, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 8, 2012
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    71
    IMO that tuesday follow up will deliver only 5-10mm in Vic and slightly less in NSW but it will be cold. Light consistent flurries material IMO. I think GFS is underestimating how far south the high will push the moisture.
     
    #167 Cubed, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  18. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2000
    Messages:
    15,104
    Likes Received:
    593
    Location:
    Space..traveling through the vast non emptiness
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    As I said above, the 9am GFS is showing this quite significantly, IMO. Although it's not supported by any other model at this stage.
     
    #169 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    How do ya like them apples?

    [​IMG]
     
    #170 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,942
    Likes Received:
    250
    You beat me to it CC, was waiting for that chart to update

    30-40cms for Perisher IMO

    Open MOUNT P - RAGE
     
  22. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,296
    Likes Received:
    9,742
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Thurs Friday would be about as set in stone as a good snowfall here could be imo
    Dunno bout Sunday though CC. Access hints at high ridging as well as GFS IMO.
    Though when you look at maps of Friday then sat on both thes models it doesn't seem a logical progression IMO.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC from this morning.

    [​IMG]

    We'll see what comes up this afternoon.
     
    #173 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. Mils

    Mils One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    1,144
    Likes Received:
    57
    Location:
    Gold Coast
    so very very very much [​IMG]
     
    #174 Mils, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  25. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2000
    Messages:
    15,104
    Likes Received:
    593
    Location:
    Space..traveling through the vast non emptiness
    Thu
    Jun 21 8-18cm
    Fri
    Jun 22 5-10cm
    Sat
    Jun 23 5-10cm
    Sun
    Jun 24 2-8cm
    Mon
    Jun 25 8cm

    potential total = 54cm, likely = 25cm

    ...snowgasmic forecast from the agent for Thredbo based on my studies of the patterns and taking a forecast shot.

    that's all folks.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    3pm GFS (6h precip)

    [​IMG]

    Starting look like this GFS run will also have the high pushing the moisture south on Sunday. IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #176 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    #177 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  28. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    How does this relate to Baw Baw or St Gwinear? Do these places get a look-in for a decent snowfall in relation to higher resorts?
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO it's not ideal, because most of the rain is coming from the NW, WNW. Baw Baw will be somewhat in the rain shadow.
    Still possibly good enough for 25cm.
    That's if the GFS scenario holds firm.
     
    #179 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  30. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    Thanks for that CC, so still plenty of skiable cover? Question from before: how does Gwinear shape up in comparison to Baw Baw re snowfall systems, is there a difference?
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I'm sorry, I don't know the topology of Gwinear vs Baw Baw. I'm not really convinced there is much difference.
     
  32. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    Thanks for the thought anyway. I've always been curious about whether snow for BB = snow for Gwinear. Does anybody have any ideas about this?
     
  33. weerab

    weerab One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    3,559
    Likes Received:
    981
    Location:
    Beautiful Altona Victoria
    I haven't got a map in front of me but I think the problem is that the carpark at Gwinear is quite low and about a 3km hike IIRC to the plateau. It's only a few km to Baw Baw so should get similar amounts of snow on the plateau proper.
     
  34. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,714
    Likes Received:
    468
    Location:
    Beaconsfield,Victoria
    In my (limited) experience, stridercdh, Gwinear can sometimes do better from the NW systems (as can Falls Ck).BB likes a SW/Southerly system, like last week. But from the charts etc. that the experts are posting in the last day or 2, this event looks on for just about everywhere. I note that Teckel is calling this w/e the start of the season for LM. Bring it on, I say. A little jaunt through LM to Merrijig and beyond could be on next week.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    GFS is suggesting freeze levels of 800m over the mainland Friday night, & IMO 400 to 600m for Tasmania at the same time
     
  36. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    Cheers guys. Just curious because I note from previous falls that while BB received enough snow to cover, some of which still remains, Gwinear on the other hand has around 4cm at the summit and a 3km walk to the so-called "snow line". I'll be up there this weekend and am looking forward to it - it is a special area I think.
     
  37. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    356
    Likes Received:
    17
    Location:
    Sydney
    Another good point about this system, the heaviest falls over thurs/fri look to be occurring with very little wind which should allow a much more even cover of snow over the normally wind scoured areas which usually stay uncovered until later in the season [​IMG]
     
    #187 Dacer, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    UKMO still looks good for Sunday IMO
    A much more believable progression than GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #188 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO EC tonight has gone with GFS, nothing too much beyond Saturday onwards if that comes through. Mind you Thursday & Friday look brilliant.
    Possibly a weak-ish front on the 26th?
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    This is reflected in yr.no; 40cm for Hotham and Buller through to Friday night, and only a few cm to follow over a few days.
    IMO
     
  41. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 8, 2012
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    71
    IMO the cold air after this system will be amazing. The fronts could chill the air enormesly and then the remaining high to the SW and the low to the SE, below NZ, will channel a lot of antarctic air northwards straight into us IMO. The cooling will probably suck most of the moisture out of the air and the High will push the majority of it further south-east anyhow, otherwise there could have been good falls, but relatively clear skies will add to the cooling at night. IMO could be some very cold nights close to -10 at Thredbo AWS, as this would be north of the cloud cover IMO.

    [​IMG]

    Looks beautiful for monday night temps! Especially considering how far south those winds flowing up the western edge of that low are coming from. Good for preserving those bigger falls through the weekend. Should remain cold for the bulk of the week too.

    IMO IMO IMO
     
    #191 Cubed, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Big change in BoM forecast temperatures for Buller and Hotham from today's 00Z model runs. Forecast for Hotham is below zero temperatures for the next six days.
     
  43. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 8, 2012
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    71
    Also could be potential for some cloud seeding for the fizzer front on sunday/monday IMO
     
  44. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Agree here... here's hoping the Sunday and Tuesday systems come back. I've got an inkling they will.
     
    #194 ice_man, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Location:
    wollongong
    Kinda what spag was saying yesterday sorry guys
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    #197 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    BOM have issued SWW for Gippsland tomorrow. Hold your hats

     
    #198 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,794
    Likes Received:
    49,077
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    9pm GFS looks better for Sunday. 10cm+ IMO
     
    #199 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  50. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,942
    Likes Received:
    250
    GFS also downgrading the precip to 25mm for Thredbo

    For 180 hours