Predictions: June 21st - 25th System (SiSFM Market - Greta)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    http://www.mountainwatch.com/Forecasts/Australia/Falls%20Creek

    Computer says 1m for Falls

    Grasshopper says that's best case and the Frog has finally decided this is 1/2m system

    IMO there is almost no chance of less than 40cm and my optimistic gut says much more. I don't think 1m somewhere is out of the question.

    If I get up the mountain I will post obs as of thurs arvo/night.
     
    #201 Karicta, Jun 20, 2012
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  2. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dump of the last ten years?
     
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Neg. We've had better ones that this.
     
    #203 Vermillion, Jun 20, 2012
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  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I expect to see 40cms of fresh at Buller by Sat morning, and probably 2 feet at Perisher/top of Thredbo. Sunday/Monday/Tuesday may look a little less likely but the 29th looks great this morning.
     
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    No way - IMO last year's early July dump was better than what this is shaping up to be...I'm sure there are others that have happened over the past 10 years (2004 comes to mind).
    Still, I'm not complaining, this is definitely a season starter IMO and will produce fantastic conditions for the busiest 3 weeks of the season - school holidays.
    I think we will see somewhere between 50 and 70cm at Perisher but it will be heavily wind affected, with big drifts to form.
     
    #205 FourSquare04, Jun 20, 2012
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  6. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh last year's late june/early july had multiple front come through which delivered over a meter at Perisher. I dont think this will even get close. It looks good though, unfortunately the follow ups on Sunday and Tuesday look to be squeezed out by the ridge of high pressure.
     
  7. BH

    BH One of Us

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    On todays charts you couldnt say more then 30cm for NSW IMO...Will be cold though.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO EC has been fairly consistently saying 40cm+ for this system.
    GFS has been 100mm+ for the last two days & remains so.

    [​IMG]
     
    #208 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2012
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  9. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Loving the non-stop snow forecast on BOM for Perisher through to next Tuesday, but it doesn't seem to be talking up big falls for Thursday / Friday IMO - http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml

    I'll be at Perisher doing the SkiMag Demo Days on Saturday / Sunday. Predicting I'll be having fun with non-stop freshies... [​IMG]
     
    #209 PowWow, Jun 20, 2012
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  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC has progged an interesting cutoff for sunday night.
    Near Gabo island.
    That might be something to watch.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not seeing it, charts?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #211 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2012
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  12. weerab

    weerab One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Way to go! A quick skate at LM, change to tele for Stirling and then to downhill gear for Buller. Nice trip, or you could even go from Mansfield to Benalla then up to Hotham/ Falls, possibilities are endless.
     
    #212 weerab, Jun 20, 2012
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  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    FYI CC
     
    #213 Donza, Jun 20, 2012
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ah Monday night not Sunday as per your post.
    EC has been reasonably consistent in showing a weak-ish front on Tuesday. I think it was discussed a page or two back (yes by ice_man & cubed)

    [​IMG]
     
    #214 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2012
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  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sorry...monday morning am would be more accurate.. Its well formed by 10pm..
    Its not a front per se...more a cutoff area of colder upper air.
    You can see it on the uppers charts on WZ start to form
     
  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    To balance some of the enthusiasm on here. The pressure isn't isn't going to be that low.
     
    #216 Stratus, Jun 20, 2012
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  17. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Still cold and showery though, you can still end up with some reasonable totals even if the pressure isn't that low.

    EC still appears to have the best scenario snow wise IMO. While the snow level doesn't appear to be as low as we expected a couple of days ago, it's still good enough for most resorts. It would be better if Sunday's front were more significant (EC still suggests this, but GFS and AXS are suggesting the high moves in too quickly), from a 'season starter' perspective.
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    100cm plus at perisher last year off "not that low" pressure
     
    #218 Donza, Jun 20, 2012
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yes, that's right, last year that system showed you could get big falls even if the pressure isn't that low.
     
  20. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    Oh my...requesting 5 minutes alone with those charts...

    Looks like snow down to 800m around the baw-baw area on friday afternoon IMO exceeellent ^^
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    #221 7wombathead, Jun 20, 2012
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  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #222 Donza, Jun 20, 2012
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM has issued flood watches ...

    Flood Watch for West and South Gippsland (Latrobe, Thomson, Macalister and Avon Catchments and South Gippsland Basin)
    Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip)
    &
    Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, Ovens and King Catchments)
     
    #223 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2012
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  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  25. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    They downgraded the rainfall 5 mins later...

     
    #225 PowWow, Jun 20, 2012
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Where? BOM site still has the original totals (80 to 100mm) in the NE Victoria flood warning.
    The Gippsland flood warning WAS reissued as per your post, but NE Victoria stands as above!
     
  27. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    I feel bad for my lack of forecast knowledge, as I can't really add any insight to this thread..
    Does anybody want to take a punt for Thredbo/Perisher snowfalls/freeze level from this afternoons chart run.

    Flood warnings for Vic.. That's awesome!
     
  28. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    My bad... they only updated the "Flood Watch for West and South Gippsland (Latrobe, Thomson, Macalister and Avon Catchments and South Gippsland Basin)".

    They left NE as it was.
     
    #228 PowWow, Jun 20, 2012
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  29. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats cause it's close to the NSW resorts [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #229 Nidecker, Jun 20, 2012
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  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I am calling w 60 to 80 cm with 1.5m wind blown stashes for you to sink into too. Me too.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    With the weather coming from the NW, and WNW, that's what I'd expect to see too. I'm still to be convinced there's 100mm peaks there, but 50 & 60mm totals should be very achievable in the NE.
     
  32. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Looking at satellite and weather stations... IMO it will snow at least 10cm overnight tonight.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    3pm GFS shows the cutoff/low sneaking up on monday morning.
    that promote a wee bit more moisture backend..

    You can see it over Tasmania as progged at 4am
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That fits with EC from this morning, IMO

    Looks like this one is locked and loaded.
    Now sit back and enjoy.
     
  35. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would it be safe to say that the concensus is decent snow Thu night into Fri, Sunday front is weaker but sustained cold temps for Snowmaking until at least Tues?
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO sundays front might be stronger progged today that it was yesterday.
    Yesterday had a ridge extending sunday night. With SW winds.
    Now we have a low moving from deep SW.. Thats a wild card.
    Depending how that tracks will alter moisture, temps and wind direction
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not far off.
    IMO Snow until late Friday. Isolated snow-showers Saturday, snow showers Sunday afternoon through (but easing) to Tuesday. Cold Wednesday.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    BTW IMO snowmaking temps will be ideal until EOFY for sure
    [​IMG]
     
    #238 Donza, Jun 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    afternoon EC continues to give us some hope for Monday & Tuesday, IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Just need that moisture a few hundred km further north.
     
    #239 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    I'm thinking only flurries from Sunday-Tuesday, but temps atill very nice IMO
     
  41. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I'm now thinking Sunday's front will be decent, not so Tuesday's front though. Some models are predicting a lack of cold air for Sunday, but BoM is still going with snow down to 700 metres for Vic.

    They did get today horribly wrong... 850 temps were set to be around 4 degrees today... barely above zero at most resorts, and that was only due to the dry air pools.
     
  42. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    bom going for snow to 400m in tas on friday & 300m on sunday so it will definatly be cold enough down here
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks great for the next 48 hours then snowmaking weather until Sunday with another, strong front coming through, then a snowmaking for the rest of the week.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Tuesday's front could deliver a sneaky 5cm in the south. Maybe only a couple of cm in the northern resorts.
     
  45. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    It's interesting to note that GFS predicts that the colder airmass at 850HPa in this first system won't really come through until midday tomorrow. At least there is minimal solar radiation, air pressure is low, and upper temps are extremely cold - this will help with providing a snow level lower than expected today and this evening, IMO.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 9am GFS has a low developing in Bass Strait early am Friday

    [​IMG]

    Also the 3am run had totals of 125mm+ for the southern ranges.
     
    #246 Claude Cat, Jun 21, 2012
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good pressures.
     
  48. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Nice - The real stuff is YET to come [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    #248 skiflat, Jun 21, 2012
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still some discrepancies between the models for Sunday / Monday

    GFS has a cyclone about to wipe out the NZ south island [​IMG]
    Look at that pressure.

    [​IMG]

    while EC has no such thing.
     
    #249 Claude Cat, Jun 21, 2012
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO EC showing about 25cm to come for Vic resorts, and 30cm for NSW.