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Predictions: June 21st - 25th System (SiSFM Market - Greta)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Is that from now on until Monday or Tuesday CC?
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Monday for NSW - can't see too much on Tuesday for the north
    Should be a few cm for Buller & Baw Baw on Tuesday

    IMO
     
  3. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    The current front (21st) seems to have built up/ increased its cloudmass just as it has hit the Vic/SA coast.

    I would not be surprised if the Saturday front showing up on the current BOM 4 Day chart will actually strengthen as it reaches the mainland rather than break down into a trough as the models are showing.

    Sea Surface temps are still showing some warm water sitting in the bite and a +1 Anomaly for almost the entire Southern Ocean below Aus, with even warmer waters sitting below, west and North West of Perth.

    The warm waters around Perth are no doubt what has caused the very strong Fronts and Lows that have effected the area over the past weeks so it will be interesting to see what the Southern Ocean Anomoly does to this front and follow up fronts.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #253 Katanga, Jun 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah Good data.

    We have been getting quite a few SSW swells that are more in line with NSW south coast this year, from deep 950 lows at around the 65 degrees South. Of note was the retrograde one last Thursday that created a very power full swell from 1000 miles south east on SOUTH NZ, creating a 16sec ESE swell.

    Thats why I am really excited this year. In the past 10 years or so most fronts are peaking in there northward migration over Perth. This year has been over the Tasman.

    Should be a big year in the Tasman. But this system is still favoring NZ a bit more than I would like. But than again NZ is insane.
     
  5. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    This system has some real potential for a massive dump for the NSW Main Range in the next 16 hours IMO.

    We have a low sitting just off the coast South East of Adelaide as can be seen below. With the warmish waters around Adelaide, this low will hopefully intensify for a few hours before heading to the Alps. as per the below model (snow porn)

    Latest Models shows this low in a direct hit for the NSW ski fields so with a bit of luck, we could be looking at 40cm before the low moves on around Midday tomorrow.

    I also still think there is a good posibility of another 15cm around Midnight Saturday followed up by another front Sunday around 1 or 2pm delivering another 15 to 20cm.

    The above is for Perisher.

    [​IMG]
     
    #255 Katanga, Jun 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Looks like both VIC and NSW did pretty well last night.

    Been some good predictions from this thread.. Anybody want to take a guess of todays snowfalls from 9am - 9pm? Winner gets major props
     
  7. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    ^25cm Perisher IMO
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another foot to 9am tomorrow at Hotham.
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Katanga

    I agree a lot more snow to come today on the main range.

    But wind is a bit westerlies. so will get blown in to the resorts sat,sun, mon, and Tuesday. Especially this cold. that snow won't settle out there except in lee of wind

    I am thinking that the storm will draw more to NZ more after sat morning as foretasted.

    Southey push on Monday night could be worth keeping an eye on
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I expect 10cm for Buller & Baw Baw for Sunday through to Tuesday.
     
  11. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Am I alone in worrying that conditions on Sunday and Monday are beginning to look marginal for the low-altitude resorts?

    Rain is now forecast for Tuesday for all Victorian resorts.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still showing 850 hPa temps < 0 IMO

    GFS still has it cold

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #262 Claude Cat, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Rain?
    Looks cold and clearish?
     
    #263 Donza, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  14. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was thinking mon/tues was looking dodgy for lack of moisture... now I am very confused. Awaits next model runs.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO moisture on Monday & Tuesday will be confined to the south. Can't see much reaching past buller or baw baw as it stands right now.
     
  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Forecast is for "morning shower or two". Hardly rain, and confined to the south IMO.
     
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The next snow band is fast approaching.

    Looks like a solid blob of cold air and moisture feed for the next 18 hrs

    Looks okay for another 25cm at least

    Drier snow too
     
  18. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Can you provide some graphs / evidence please.
     
    #268 Stratus, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Check the radar and satellite.
     
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Here it is

    I wish I could post an image but there is no need really.

    Cheers
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  22. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    here what is? [​IMG]
     
    #272 Mils, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic - predictions, not observations.
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    CC you can use a satellite and radar to predict snow falls as these are the most up to date. Often synoptic are more than 6hrs behind reality, particularly the ones that are posted as 9am as they are actually 4am AEST.

    Observations should also be linked to predictions, I mean that's how they create synoptic charts. Its not all just modelling.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml
     
    #274 7wombathead, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd do it this way [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Sat picture shows speckled cloud moving in from the south - this indicates the colder air is moving in.
    IMO it will be colder, it will be somewhat drier.
     
    #275 Claude Cat, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    snowguns will fire up (imho)
     
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Ho to post an image. Is it on the forum.

    Thanks
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #278 Claude Cat, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  29. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    notwithstanding very little showing on radar it's coming down consistently and at times relatively heavily at falls and has done all morning

    When the really heavy moisture hits we're in for another 20cm

    IMO of course
     
  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO since the morning reports (around 7am) there's been at least another 10cm at all resorts, maybe even 15-20cm at some, by the end of the day I'd say 30cm would be a conservative total.
    IMO we'll see resorts reporting 48 hr totals in the arvo reports of around minimum 50cm (except maybe Buller) up to possibly 1m at Hotham & Falls.

     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think 1m might be a bit of a stretch, but Hotham could definitely clear 75-80cm IMO.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm GFS still thinks there's a bit to come until Tuesday.

    [​IMG]

    IMO, I'd take those totals & divide by 2.
     
    #282 Claude Cat, Jun 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    add some for seeding
     
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    If i converted AXSR's moisture prediction, its suggesting about 10cm - 15cm to come for VIC.


     
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Or not.
     
    #285 Stratus, Jun 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  36. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Easy to get excited stratus!

    Bom charts showing another 2 - 10cm to come over next few days IMO

    Cloud closing in at falls so I will update obs if it starts to snow...