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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2012.
Is that from now on until Monday or Tuesday CC?
Monday for NSW - can't see too much on Tuesday for the north
Should be a few cm for Buller & Baw Baw on Tuesday
The current front (21st) seems to have built up/ increased its cloudmass just as it has hit the Vic/SA coast.
I would not be surprised if the Saturday front showing up on the current BOM 4 Day chart will actually strengthen as it reaches the mainland rather than break down into a trough as the models are showing.
Sea Surface temps are still showing some warm water sitting in the bite and a +1 Anomaly for almost the entire Southern Ocean below Aus, with even warmer waters sitting below, west and North West of Perth.
The warm waters around Perth are no doubt what has caused the very strong Fronts and Lows that have effected the area over the past weeks so it will be interesting to see what the Southern Ocean Anomoly does to this front and follow up fronts.
Yeah Good data.
We have been getting quite a few SSW swells that are more in line with NSW south coast this year, from deep 950 lows at around the 65 degrees South. Of note was the retrograde one last Thursday that created a very power full swell from 1000 miles south east on SOUTH NZ, creating a 16sec ESE swell.
Thats why I am really excited this year. In the past 10 years or so most fronts are peaking in there northward migration over Perth. This year has been over the Tasman.
Should be a big year in the Tasman. But this system is still favoring NZ a bit more than I would like. But than again NZ is insane.
This system has some real potential for a massive dump for the NSW Main Range in the next 16 hours IMO.
We have a low sitting just off the coast South East of Adelaide as can be seen below. With the warmish waters around Adelaide, this low will hopefully intensify for a few hours before heading to the Alps. as per the below model (snow porn)
Latest Models shows this low in a direct hit for the NSW ski fields so with a bit of luck, we could be looking at 40cm before the low moves on around Midday tomorrow.
I also still think there is a good posibility of another 15cm around Midnight Saturday followed up by another front Sunday around 1 or 2pm delivering another 15 to 20cm.
The above is for Perisher.
Looks like both VIC and NSW did pretty well last night.
Been some good predictions from this thread.. Anybody want to take a guess of todays snowfalls from 9am - 9pm? Winner gets major props
^25cm Perisher IMO
Another foot to 9am tomorrow at Hotham.
I agree a lot more snow to come today on the main range.
But wind is a bit westerlies. so will get blown in to the resorts sat,sun, mon, and Tuesday. Especially this cold. that snow won't settle out there except in lee of wind
I am thinking that the storm will draw more to NZ more after sat morning as foretasted.
Southey push on Monday night could be worth keeping an eye on
IMO I expect 10cm for Buller & Baw Baw for Sunday through to Tuesday.
Am I alone in worrying that conditions on Sunday and Monday are beginning to look marginal for the low-altitude resorts?
Rain is now forecast for Tuesday for all Victorian resorts.
EC still showing 850 hPa temps < 0 IMO
GFS still has it cold
Looks cold and clearish?
I was thinking mon/tues was looking dodgy for lack of moisture... now I am very confused. Awaits next model runs.
IMO moisture on Monday & Tuesday will be confined to the south. Can't see much reaching past buller or baw baw as it stands right now.
Forecast is for "morning shower or two". Hardly rain, and confined to the south IMO.
The next snow band is fast approaching.
Looks like a solid blob of cold air and moisture feed for the next 18 hrs
Looks okay for another 25cm at least
Drier snow too
Can you provide some graphs / evidence please.
Check the radar and satellite.
Here it is
I wish I could post an image but there is no need really.
here what is?
Stay on topic - predictions, not observations.
CC you can use a satellite and radar to predict snow falls as these are the most up to date. Often synoptic are more than 6hrs behind reality, particularly the ones that are posted as 9am as they are actually 4am AEST.
Observations should also be linked to predictions, I mean that's how they create synoptic charts. Its not all just modelling.
I'd do it this way
Sat picture shows speckled cloud moving in from the south - this indicates the colder air is moving in.
IMO it will be colder, it will be somewhat drier.
snowguns will fire up (imho)
Ho to post an image. Is it on the forum.
How to post images
notwithstanding very little showing on radar it's coming down consistently and at times relatively heavily at falls and has done all morning
When the really heavy moisture hits we're in for another 20cm
IMO of course
IMO since the morning reports (around 7am) there's been at least another 10cm at all resorts, maybe even 15-20cm at some, by the end of the day I'd say 30cm would be a conservative total.
IMO we'll see resorts reporting 48 hr totals in the arvo reports of around minimum 50cm (except maybe Buller) up to possibly 1m at Hotham & Falls.
I think 1m might be a bit of a stretch, but Hotham could definitely clear 75-80cm IMO.
3pm GFS still thinks there's a bit to come until Tuesday.
IMO, I'd take those totals & divide by 2.
add some for seeding
If i converted AXSR's moisture prediction, its suggesting about 10cm - 15cm to come for VIC.
Easy to get excited stratus!
Bom charts showing another 2 - 10cm to come over next few days IMO
Cloud closing in at falls so I will update obs if it starts to snow...