1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Predictions June 2nd to June 10th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Katanga, May 18, 2011.

  1. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2011
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Unina Beach
    I have tried to clean this post up so it makes a bit more sense.

    These are my Obbs as at the 18th May that will help to develop a strong snow system over the Aust Alps from around the 2nd of June to 6th June. These days may be pushed back slightly.

    As at the 18th May, There is a large strong high sitting east of S/America.

    There is a low sitting in front (east) of this high which is threatening to move south in front of the high.

    SW of Africa, we have a weak high. Below this high we have a triple low system which should combine in the next few days.

    SE of Africa we have a developing low which should track south to meet with the triple lows.

    Between S/America and Africa is very unstable air which will help the S/American high to move east and establish itself.

    But with all this instability, we will get strong lows and fronts that will develop below this trailing high. This high will then elongate in a SW to NE direction over SW Australia as per the last 2 passing high.

    This will drive a strong 3 day system over the ALPS and dump around 50cm over the prediction period IMO.

    All can be seen at the following:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/pacific_ocean.shtml S/America

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/indian_ocean.shtml Africa.
     
    #1 Katanga, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Ok, I see a wasted post here, as your explanation is too hard to follow.

    Chart 1:
    [​IMG]

    Chart 2:
    [​IMG]


    Could you let us know the the pressure value of each high and low you are talking about as well as the chart number.

    Would help greatly with referencing [​IMG]
     
    #2 Stratus, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. loweee

    loweee One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,849
    Likes Received:
    676
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    #3 loweee, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    This far out I would be focusing only on the polar charts.
     
  5. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2011
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Unina Beach
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Sorry Infact, I do tend to waffle and i have no idea how to post charts [​IMG]

    Chart 2 shows a very strong high sitting east of South America 1031H Just in front of this High (bottom right of the chart) we have a tropical low 1005H (so to speak) moving south east in front of the high.

    Link chart 2 to chart 1 and we have a weak high sitting off the west coast of South Africa 1021Hand a Vortex low sitting south of it 950'S. (seems to be developing).

    SE of South Africa, we have another “tropical†low 1006H with a strong vortex low south of it 955H and a strong front.

    East of these systems we have Tuesdays high 1027H.

    Now, my prediction is that the tropical lows around Africa and the weak highs will counter balance each other and allow the strong high that is sitting SE of South America to move east. as it moves east, it will forces the delinquent lows to combine under this high as it moves into the Indian ocean.

    The high will then stall SW of WA at the same time as the delinquent lows intensify and move north smashing Vic and Southern NSW on the 4th.

    This is a Vic system. NSW will get 30cm but Vic will do much better. 50cm+.
     
    #5 Katanga, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,735
    Likes Received:
    11,036
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    If you say "NSW will get 30cm but Vic will do much better. 50cm+.", you need to post "IMO", or "I think that....", not post opinion as fact.

    (see the Weather Forum rules)
     
  7. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2001
    Messages:
    1,060
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Brissy
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I think we can say the GFS ensemble doesn't like it (maybe Jackson Pollock would?):

    [​IMG]
     
    #7 Gerg, May 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 31, 2008
    Messages:
    20,302
    Likes Received:
    8,469
    Location:
    Chernobyl, Russia
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    whoooaaa, priddy

    IMO
     
  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,496
    Likes Received:
    9,942
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    June 2 = Lala land.
    But good on you for trying
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Stay on topic.
     
  11. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2011
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Unina Beach
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Time will tell.

    The dates may get pushed back a day or 3 but that is normal for this time of year as the speed of the systems are hard to pick this far out early in the season.

    Watch this space.
     
  12. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    980
    Likes Received:
    935
    Location:
    Essendon
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    If we were in the middle Wundegrounds' COLA chart for June 3rd, we would be on the cusp of a major system with sub 528 thickness rising up thru Bass straight IMO. But do we need to jump on SnowRunna and tell him his post is a waste cause he is basing some of his predictions on MSLP charts he can't upload? Geez! Yes this is a predictions thread, but Sandy, a dash of BBQ talk for discussion pertaining to a prediction should be welcomed, not threatened with moderation. The forum seems to get more amd more anal each season........a shame. On topic, I noted several posts ago COLA showing a brilliant set up for SnowRunna's dates. I see a week system pushing thru on May 30 before a major prolonged series of fronts due June 2-3, based on todays COLA chart for that period. Like SnowRunna, I lack the skill to upload the chart, I will get there tho, don't sue me. Interestingly enough, the model is almost the same set up as it forecast 5 days ago. If it delivers what it has modeled, it will be big, and cold, and wet. IMO!!!!
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    For your benefit, 00z GFS run, 3rd June.

    [​IMG]

    IMO at 336 hours out, I'm not holding my breath...
     
    #13 Claude Cat, May 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    980
    Likes Received:
    935
    Location:
    Essendon
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Me neither CC, but if something resembling that comes off, it wil lbe sweet. Remember that 3 day system in about 03 or 04 that dropped 1.5 m on Hotham in 3 days........no one liked that 336 hrs out either really <img src="https://www.ski.com.au/xf/styles/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="\:\/" title="smirk" height="15" width="15" /> Not suggesting it will deliver 150cm, moreso that 336 hours out gives an insight at best, but sustained simikar charts hint at something more solid. That set up you have posted has been very similar each time I have checked it over the past 3-4 days. Nothing wrong with optimism and excitement at what could be. Our season is based on such optimism of the next big thing. Sorry off topic I know, what are your thoughts if that set up stayed on course?
     
  15. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Why do you keep changing the title, its friggen annoying.
     
  16. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    18,271
    Likes Received:
    547
    Location:
    Melbourne, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    makes it more realistic
     
  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,735
    Likes Received:
    11,036
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    It was July 23rd-25th 2003. It was less than 48 hours. Hotham got 70-80cm. Falls Creek got 104cm in between 10pm July 23rd and 6pm July 25th.
     
    #17 Sandy, May 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. Snow Happy

    Snow Happy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2005
    Messages:
    58
    Likes Received:
    5
    Location:
    Lysterfield Victoria
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Sandy you have the charts from 23-25/7/2003?
    This time of year the weather is unstable, hence IMO this system (2-6 June) will give some snow (30cm) so we can all have a slide on opening weekend.
     
  19. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    Messages:
    195
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    IMO, this dump will decide whether we are skiing on JLW or not, it kinda reminds me of last year, when we had about 25cm on the Tuesday of that week and it was pretty good snow for the weekend, hopefully we can get a little bit more this system in comparison to last year, IMO its a bit early to starting getting really excited but current formation looks pretty good for it,
     
  20. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2001
    Messages:
    1,060
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Brissy
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #20 Gerg, May 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    The low pressure of 973hPa made that one in 2003.
     
  22. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    Messages:
    195
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Based on latest GFS, looks like it will be two fronts, close together, with highs either side, the positioning of the highs is probably going to determine how will the system goes and whether it is snow or rain,

    [​IMG]
     
    #22 Sweens, May 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    That looks warm, IMO.
     
  24. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    [​IMG] 372hrs, and posting MSLP charts this far out is useless, especially extended GFS.
     
    #24 Stratus, May 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. Acav

    Acav Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2010
    Messages:
    392
    Likes Received:
    3
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    IMO this could be the big one which gets the season off to an amazing start, or turns it into another 2006 dependant on the Temps. Both the Frog and Weatherzone predict a high chance of rain, and in weatherzones case a lot of rain. The temps are the major variable in the equation and I think it is too hard to predict them this far out. Aside from that no major forcaster is predicting anything major for a while after this.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Stay on topic.
    Off topic posts moved to the epic weather thread.
     
  27. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2011
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Unina Beach
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I started this thread for the reason that I can see a major system arriving over the predict period.

    The intensity and moisture should arrive IMO but this far out, the temps are always the big question.

    Looking at the setup of this system and the deep belly highs that we are seeing over the Indian, it is my opinion that the temps should be on the colder side of marginal.

    The problem with true long range predictions is that there are no models to support them. The human brain digests current models and trends to form a long range forcast. This appears to be unpopular as computer models and graphs can not be posted.

    As mentioned earlier, time will tell and watch this space.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    EC shows something potentially building for the 2nd, IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #28 Claude Cat, May 22, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2011
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Unina Beach
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Thanks for the model CC. Any support is appreciated.

    For my own process, I try not to rely on models more than 4 days out. I personally like to watch the daily actuals over a long period and then compare them to the models in order to try and gauge the error factor.

    So when I pick a long range system, I can then use the the 2 to 3 day models for each quadrant to estimate how the system will evolve over a 14 to 18 day period.

    The model you posted above is promising to me but the shape of this system is a little off my prog.

    My model shows a stronger high centring over Esperance at 1030 with the leading high sitting 300klm NE of the Nth Island of NZ and no tropical low pushing in on this high.

    As mentioned, at present, I have no scanning ability to show my worksheets or thought process but I will be back into civilization in early June.
     
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    EC, GFS and ACCESS all show the leading high for this system (the same one that is just about to pass over us now), moving quite steadily off into the Tasman at a good pace.

    Though far away, note the position (or lack of) the trailing high too.

    Feels like there will be a lot of "room to move" if you know what I mean.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Caution. 300 hours out.

    [​IMG]
     
    #31 Claude Cat, May 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,638
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Why not just break out MS Paint and draw us a schematic?
     
    #32 Rush, May 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,227
    Likes Received:
    25,709
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Yawn. Call me back in 150 hours.
     
    #33 Vermillion, May 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    All models showing a mighty low at +168hrs.
     
  35. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,485
    Likes Received:
    2,978
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Yes IMO there do appear to be some changes starting to appear in the Southern Hemisphere projection at BOM

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=SH&model=G - at a week out.

    It looks like a solid shift from mainly high pressure systems at our latitude - with low pressure systems pushing up all around.

    Maybe we will see some quality dumps the first week of June and then throughout June leading to a solid start for a change.

    Anyone care for a moisture guess next week?
     
    #35 rocketboy, May 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. Sinyk

    Sinyk First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    IMO, I'm starting to get a bit of a tingle in my guts about what looks to be developing off the WA coast. That deep, deep low that looks to hit about 192+ hours is giving me that feeling in the guts I get when my hind brain is trying to tell me something. I'm starting to get quite hopeful about it.

    Then again, I could have just eaten a dodgy chicken nugget. [​IMG]
     
    #36 Sinyk, May 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  37. loweee

    loweee One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,849
    Likes Received:
    676
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    The Charts do seem to be leaning towards something during this period at these eatly times both on Access G and GFS. Some type of complex double/triple low scenario busting up from the south.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    My take
    0-72 hours looks logical
    96-144 looks wacked
    168-onwards looks tidy

    its the bit in the middle that worries me

    my take
    we are in pattern right now that will deliver a system every 7-10 days.
    thats unusual and pretty cool
    the LWT is as stimulated as i've seen it in yonks
    but to say yes or no right now...hmmm
    i like the H placements, i like the troughs in middle Australia
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Still looking remotely interesting on 9am GFS, IMO. Perhaps a double "banger" system with potential to deliver over several days.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The conditions on GFS show possible snowfalls right through to the 9th.

    *standard disclaimer: 252+ hours out.
     
    #39 Claude Cat, May 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    EC doesn't like at moment.

    we'll see over the next couple of days.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    EC doesn't go out that far, but IMO the setup doesn't look as encouraging as GFS.
     
    #41 Claude Cat, May 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    comparing 240 vs 240
    the shape of the high, the temps etc.
     
    #42 Donza, May 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  43. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Look how quick the leading high looks to be moving off from +168 onwards, shown by AXS.
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    Location:
    wollongong
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Interesting.
    raises one eyebrow
    [​IMG]
     
    #44 Donza, May 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,227
    Likes Received:
    25,709
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    This one has a little potential, the high is being progged consistently in a good spot.

    And tomorrow it will prove me wrong.
     
  46. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    IYO
     
  47. dopestylesss

    dopestylesss Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2005
    Messages:
    277
    Likes Received:
    9
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    ACCESSG is showing good potential set up for the front. Definately looks cold/wet enough with a nice westerly feed. IMO, there is alot of variations between models which is pretty standard this far out.
     
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Indeed.

    This afternoons GFS shows two lows teaming up at 180hours. Looks pretty.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    112,571
    Likes Received:
    49,883
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Yup, the old double bunger, this was showing up in the 9am run too, IMO.
     
    #49 Claude Cat, May 25, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    EC is off board currently.