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Predictions June 2nd to June 10th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Katanga, May 18, 2011.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    [​IMG] GFS could not resist and now has gone all-in with an ECL this morning. IMO
    EC is backing away from the bullish run last night, back to totals of around 15cm for Thredbo.
    All models are going for a Tasman low or a closer ECL, this looks like it could deliver snow right through to Friday but the snow level will rise as the direction of winds swing more from the SE. IMO
    As with most ECL scenarios totals are going to be hard to pick.
     
    #251 Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I see about 9-12cm for Buller out of this. It is a very cold system. Even the 528 line may make an appearance just south of Tasmania, not bad.

    TAS is going to get hammered.
     
  3. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    i agree skimun....cradle and rufus will be looking good next weekend IMHO
     
  4. GSea

    GSea Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Just looking at the latest satellite loop and there's a big mass of
    speckled cloud being thrust towards SE Australia from down south.
    Seems to be rising rapidly also, so hopefully it will be a cold and snowy
    afternoon when it hits the alps.
     
  5. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I knew something interesting was gonna happen from Wednesday onwards...
    GFS and ACCESS have it turning into and ECL but they both play out differently from that point.
    GFS hangs around the east coast of Vic constantly bring snow and cold air before moving off on Friday (best scenario) IMO
    ACCESS hangs around for only a day giving limited snow before moving off and intensifying in the Tasman sea IMO
    gonna be interesting to see how it plays out
     
  6. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Spot on GSea.

    Should be interesting this afternoon!
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    That VVVV would ne nuke
    any day of the week
    IMO
    [​IMG]
     
    #257 Donza, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    ^^^^
    this
     
  9. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    BOM forecast is still sheepish on snowfall. Saying scattered showers only. I like it.
     
  10. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    BOM forecast for Blue Mountains Wednesday saying snow to 700m. Big call from them three days out.
     
  11. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Yup, calling for snow to 700M Central Tablelands.
     
    #261 Untele-whippet, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I left comment til late today simply because I wanted to see how the sat loop would present.

    And it presents well. Oh so well!!

    A cold vigorous system is heading our way. Let the games begin [​IMG]

    30-40cm by Tuesday night IMO.
     
    #262 woggybot, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I'll correct you there SB
    650metres
    ok a little opinion based observational prediction with a smidgen of history
    650 metre snowfalls predictions in nsw off "cold" SW changes rarely deliver much..
    650 metre snowfalls predictions in nsw off bombing lows in Bass strait/Tasman Sea can deliver silly amounts of snow
     
    #263 Donza, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    The amount of snow hinges on three things for me,
    1) Where this front tonight goes, if it hits NSW resorts, then we could be looking good for 10-20cm, if not, NSW will lose out,
    2) Tuesday, how cold it is, and whether the front penetrates north enough to be benefical for snow, as long as it is exceptionally cold then snowmaking should occur throughout
    3) What happens after the Tuesday front passes, because if bombs of the coast, for a good 24-36hrs, then this could be a very serious system, IMO

    Anywhere 10-50cm for NSW resorts, with probably 20-35cm, being a realistic result, but if all 3 combine together, then it will be looking very good!, IMO
     
  15. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Very tight pressure gradient around the low.

    Models still disagreeable over pressure. As a reference, at Wednesday 10am, EC has pressure 1016hPa over alps and AXSR has 1024hPa - which is a difference that will significantly effect precipitation IMO.

    Where the centre of the low will track is anyone's guess. It's always a fine line with Tasmans. 20cm - 40cm likely for VIC.
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Infact considering the divergence in the models.....

    - deleted off topic.

    I can't remember the water ever being this warm at QBW.
    Ita almost balmy on the south coast
    that low will bomb. IMO
     
  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    The warm waters will help aii.

    Let me bring out my favourite chart this year.

    [​IMG]
     
    #267 Stratus, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    It'll help with snowmaking for a few nights until it becomes too warm. A 1030 would have been enough. Lets see.
     
    #268 Stratus, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    IMO this one is still hard to pick.
    I still think we could be in for 15cms tonight, with perhaps Buller and Baw Baw a bit more? - I think this will clear by the morning.
    On Tuesday we get the ECL, and these buggers are hard to predict.
    Again Baw Baw will do best initially, but Thredbo and the s-eastern facing hills in NSW could do very well if there is penetration of the moisture as the ECL travels NE. It should stay very cold right through Thursday, so snow makers will make up for any shortfall.
    One thing that concerns me is the how far the moisture will penetrate. EG GFS

    [​IMG]
    UKmet & EC showing perhaps 20cm for Thredbo.
     
    #269 Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    hey CC IMO
    20 cm with a snowlevel that low (650 ish) is 40cm plus on the hill
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #271 Donza, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Not sure which one you're after , I guess 72 hours.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #272 Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Donza, IMO the concern with the 72 hour EC is that the prevailing will still be SW and so you're going to find that much of the northern resorts are in the rain shadow of Baw Baw & co.
    And the 1016 hPa pressure...
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Hey CC cheers
    I was after the WZ one...but they'll do
    when you get a tight low I find the NSW resorts still do all right
    straight SW yeah, rain shadow
    but a bend, NSW resorts seem to be on the edge..
    in my experience lows like this can do well for NSW.
    If they catch enough moisture from bass strait and the upper support promotes some instabilty
    BTW
    wild card
    seeding
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I don't know, to be honest. ECLs are such a wild card. The good thing is that it's going to be mighty cold. We could see some snow in unusual places in NSW.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I agree ECLs are
    100%
    we might get snow only 25 mins drive from here
     
  27. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    You can just see at the very bottom of the satellite pic now in the middle. I really like the looks of this winding up off the Antarctic coast surging northwards, it reminds me a bit of late May 2000 with a strong high to the west. Temps will be very low BOM is calling snow on Mt Dandenong for Wednesday morning in the forecast. I reckon 30cms on southern resorts Lake Mountain, Baw Baw, 20cm for Donna Buang (its a bit lower), Buller , Falls & Hotham also 20cms.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    GFS shows freezing levels between 800m and 1000m.

    [​IMG]

    Not sure if it will quite snow in the Dandies, might get a flake or two.
     
    #278 Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Typically if we had a similar system in terms of the cold temps during the middle of winter we would be lucky to get 20cm due to the airmass being a lot drier, but it looks like the warmer than average SST's in the bight are going to help, plus it's a 'developing' style of system that virtually came from nothing so there's a lot of +'s about this system......

    I notice The Frog has jumped on the bandwagon and is going for substantial totals over the next 4 days plus a bit more up high over the long weekend [​IMG]
     
    #279 FourSquare04, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    [​IMG] Stupid models. Frog ups his models and GFS has some sort of magical scenario happening, hmmm.

    LWT not on board at all, flattening out significantly in the next few days. This could still be good for another 20cms+ at the resorts though.
     
    #280 Vermillion, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    IMO 20cm sounds about right for the "majors", perhaps 10 to15cm more at Baw Baw.

    Don't you love GFS having that low doing the "magical mystery tour"? [​IMG] if that comes off Baw Baw will have 1m of snow by the end of the week.

    [​IMG]

    No I don't believe it.
     
    #281 Claude Cat, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I would also be laughing at the ridiculous ECL progged if AXS wasnt also suggesting it.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    EC, UKmet, & CMC are more realistic, IMO.
     
  34. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    very very hard to predict
    It seems to me that with the ECL if most of the moisture drives up through the corridor between Wilson's Prom and lakes Entrance, very little snow.
    Either side of that and Vic resorts do well the more westerly and NSW more North-east.
     
    #284 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  35. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    I agree CC.

    What GFS is suggesting would be lovely, and I'm hoping very much that it will happen, but it was the last to hop on this bandwagon and has hopped on to the extreme.

    More likely is a combo of ACCESS and EC with the low not as close, rainfall amounts not as huge and snow not as low. These have the coldest air going over central and eastern parts (not west) but are underdoing moisture levels, especially at elevation and exposed parts of the south.
     
  36. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Widespread rain progged for inland Aus over the next few days, culminating in a wet weedend for eastern Qld/NSW. Already falling in the Pilbara. Last gasp La Nina upper level trough? Won't want to drift south.
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah Access has a diabolical end of days system progged
    EC is more restrained
     
    #287 Donza, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes the moisture is clear from the sat animation I just posted in the obs thread. Looks like it's coming in over Exmouth and heading through southern QLD.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    NW feed coming across SA on that sat pic too
    [​IMG]
     
    #289 Donza, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  40. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eeeeep. I have a race on Sunday on the Gold Coast. It looks wet. Real wet. Looking good for the resorts though! IMO
     
  41. GSea

    GSea Hard Yards

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    Do you think our next snowy influence will come from whats happening to the west of Tassie
    at the moment, will it climb high enough ?
    Or are we more likely to get something from whats drifting across from SA,
    Or could we score the double wammy from both?
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO, I don't believe the stream of moisture from the NW will impact the resorts or snow we'll see in the south.
     
  43. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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  44. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Looking good .....................
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #295 Vermillion, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. GSea

    GSea Hard Yards

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    Mountain Watch calling for 60 cm + in some areas over the next 7 days.
    Here's hoping we see that.
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    and GFS upgrades

    jesus
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Keep it to predictions.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO this afternoon's ACCESS run has the low too far out in the Tasman to be useful.
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Where as GFS
    has it further north...
     
    #300 Donza, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013