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Predictions June 2nd to June 10th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Katanga, May 18, 2011.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO GFS is in dreamland. Otherwise, Mallacoota might just get washed away.
     
    #301 Claude Cat, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    It agrees with GFS in a few ways
    Just has a different opinion about the cold pool and instabilty
     
    #302 Donza, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    GFS looks epic!
    although looking like its off the planets with its prediction IMO
    still if that comes off, what a start for a season we may have
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I can't see the level of moisture that GFS is showing. In particular Thursday.

    [​IMG]

    Compare this to UKmet for the Wednesday.
    [​IMG]
     
    #304 Claude Cat, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. Sinyk

    Sinyk First Runs

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    The snow models on this site are saying upwards of 80cms between now and mid-opening weekend. From my limited experience I tend to take what the models say and drop it back about 60%. But that's still about 32cms of snow over the next few days being rather conservate. That's epic... no, wait, that's iconic... ummm... no, that's minty. Yeah, that's it.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic. Mintiness can go in to the epic weather thread.
     
  7. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

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    IMO freeze levels will rise quicker than most think, including what weatherzone are saying.
    GFS has snow levels on the rise by Thursday as winds turn SE.
     
  8. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Snow predicted to 500 metres tomorrow and Wednesday... wow. We usually get only one low level snow event per year... so far we've had two before the season's even begun!
     
  9. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

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    Don't think we will actually see snow below about 800m, prove me wrong mother nature [​IMG]
     
    #309 Miffy, Jun 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it stays how the models are predicting then I think snow will fall below 800m, although probably won't settle much, if at all.
     
  11. FlintSnowGear

    FlintSnowGear First Runs

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    I dont know gfs is normally pretty good a couple of days out, its very generous a week out which is where the scepticism comes from IMO. So I feel this is the .......... well the season starter we all wish for. no scientific basis to back it up just putting faith in the millions of dollars put in to forecast models a few days out, they are all on it.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just looking at the models GFS is way out on its own for the 00 Thursday 6 hour period, IMO
    GFS is showing 40mm+ for far east gibbsland.
    UKMet 5-10mm
    CMC 5mm
    NoGaps 5mm
    ACCESS 10mm
    I'm sorry but I don't buy it.
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    GFS is over the top with moisture Thursday/Friday IMO, but very fickle to predict. How the Tasman will develop, no model knows.
     
  14. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    GFS routinely over-predicts precip in our region, IMO (actually I think there's data, no?).
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC (yr.no) has downgraded moisture significantly too, showing up 8cm snow for Thredbo.
    Kind of in line with all the other models except GFS.
     
  16. FlintSnowGear

    FlintSnowGear First Runs

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    weather channel is going with 10 to 20cm out of it
     
  17. FlintSnowGear

    FlintSnowGear First Runs

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    I guess GFS is the new nogaps ( the place to look and dream)

    weather channel just said snow to 700m.... cant wait to hit the hills
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im not convinced any of the models are right. There is potential for what GFS is showing, but it's only potential IMO. At the same time I think the other models are a bit ummm weak on their moisture content. Snowline looks about 600m tomorrow.
     
  19. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So which computer model does the ski.com.au Weather site use for its 'Snow Models' page, which, by the way, predicts NO snow at Baw Baw for tomorrow (Tuesday)? Is it likely to be slightly wrong? Please?
     
  20. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    No comment, from any of the weather experts? Please?
     
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I'm guessing GFS.

    Baw Baw could do the best out of everyone by the end of the week IMO.
     
  22. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

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    I'm up can't sleep.Must be a good snowfall on the way.IMO
    Looks like a solid amount of snow about to fall and welcome all of us to season 2011.
    I say roughly 40 to 60cms by the time the lifts fire up.IMO!
    I really feel we could get a slight bit more than that also.IMO.
     
  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R for Thursday
    IMO ..wow

    [​IMG]
     
    #323 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. Hotham Yetti

    Hotham Yetti First Runs

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    [​IMG]
     
    #324 Hotham Yetti, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo , nuff said
     
  26. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    I think everyone is on board now. A nice 5 nodal pattern.
    [​IMG]
     
    #326 nisstrust, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    (EC) yn.no still only showing 12mm (cm) for Thredbo.
    I note that UKmet has bumped it it's precipitation levels through to Thursday morning.
    CMC & NoGaps still with EC on the low side. Interesting divergence in the models, evenly split at this stage!
     
  28. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    When that system started I assumed it was GFS, because that used to be the only model with suitable output readily available. Current predictions suggest that may no longer be the case. To be frank, I rarely look at those things.
     
    #328 Gerg, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    This morning's update -

    Alpine snow:

    This is the system that will provide a good, solid base, ready for the ski season.

    By Friday it is likely that some of our alpine areas will have received more than 50 cm of snow.

    The flow is SW today, S/SW tomorrow, S/SE on Thursday and Friday.

    All alpine areas should get 20 to 30 cm. The S/SE flow will provide a wetter snow, only on the upper slopes, but will produce a lot of it (particularly Thursday). This will see some areas record over 50 cm up high.

    Low level snow:

    The coldest air is later today through to tomorrow morning then its marginally warmer for the rest of tomorrow.

    Mt Dandenong and the Strezlecki ranges are likely to get snow and a fair bit, but the Otways and Ballarat/Daylesford area is a chance – likely to see sleet.
     
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    IMO, Baw Baw is going to crack 50cm by Friday. The SE'ly later this week will deliver goods and it should certainley be cold enough.
     
  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The latest ACCESS 3 dayer seems to be showing a bit more precipitation than previous runs in the w-sw stream. Around 20cm in NSW resorts vs 10cm in previous runs. Once it goes SE anything could happen.
     
  32. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Where is the Ben Iceman? Looks like a Tas system...
     
  33. Maxcimus

    Maxcimus Hard Yards

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    I like this prediction!

    Why do you say that this looks like a Tas system Gerg?

    Iceman hasn't surfaced much yet this season!
     
    #333 Maxcimus, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO while this phase of the system is interesting, and I'm thinking we might see up to 20cm out of (which is an upgrade on initial thinking), what happens once this low hits the Tasman is what will make it or break it. 3pm GFS remains steadfast having large falls in east Gippsland which will favour Thredbo and Baw Baw.

    [​IMG]

    UKmet & ACCESS are onboard with this. Lets see what the other models say over the next couple of hours...
     
    #335 Claude Cat, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  36. Blinkin8

    Blinkin8 Hard Yards

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    Mountainwatch's forecast for NSW on weds + thurs has backed right off... what happened?
     
  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Largely depends on how far east it intensifies.
    Personally I see a lot more snow for Thredbo and the Cobberas than Baw Baw past wednesday evening.
     
    #337 The Plowking, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Why do you even ..
     
    #338 Stratus, Jun 7, 2011
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  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    What is a Thredbo?
     
    #339 Stratus, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I endorse this opinion!
     
    #340 Vermillion, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    This morning's Access-R shows heavy precip over Tas tonight/tomorrow; temps are low, so should be good for Tas mountains IMHO, esp in the south and east (i.e. The Ben)

    IMO latest A-R update appears to be something of a downgrade for Vic/NSW. As has been discussed elsewhere, the low's track is too far east, most falls after tonight progged for East Gippsland area; maybe Cobberas / Thredbo, as someone said.
     
    #341 Gerg, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO we might see some snow pretty close to my home this thursday morning... ie Wollongong
    Robertson and the escarpment are a very good chance
     
  43. Thunda

    Thunda First Runs

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    I'd like to see that Donza. It's been a while since we have had snow on the edge of the escarpment.

    BTW I predict that it will NOT snow in Dapto in the forseeable future. currently +9.9 deg
     
    #343 Thunda, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC (yr.no) still not bullish about precipitation in Thredbo.
     
  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the national radar pix on BOM are we going to see any of that NW flow interact with the southerly burst and get lots of moisture hitting the cold air mass from the south? I can also see that there is a separate cloud mass moving east from Esperance (sucking in that warm sea mositure SW from WA that some have postulated for this year?) hence are we really starting to look at the perfect set up for lots and lots of moist air hitting a cold air mass?
     
  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    I couldn't help but notice the similarity between this system and the one that got us 1-3 August 2010, especially the tail end of it. I was at Thredbo that day and i've never seens snow that heavy for that long.

    The 10pm thursday scenario doesn't look to far off the 2 August 2011 chart. Last years the low is probably a little further west and north of tomorrows forecast, but we can hope.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #346 Snow Blowey, Jun 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Im thinking the low is too far east already for Buller and may end up being too far east for Falls/Hotham too.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    IMO this was always the likely case.
    ECLs hardly ever bring snow to these resorts. It remains to be determined how much Thredbo, NSW resorts and perhaps Baw Baw do over the next couple of days.
     
    #348 Claude Cat, Jun 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    This morning's update:

    SNOW IN THE ALPINE (>1200 metres)

    This is the system that will provide a good, solid base, ready for the ski season.

    The flow is S/SW today then S/SE on Thursday and Friday which will be warmer.

    All alpine areas should get at least 20 to 30 cm from yesterday through to Friday. The S/SE flow will provide a wetter snow, only on the upper slopes, but will produce a lot of it (particularly Thursday). This will see some areas record over 50 cm up high as the total.

    Today: 5 to 10 cm, but up to 20 cm for Baw Baw and Buller - throughout alpine elevations.

    Tomorrow: up to 5 cm for Baw Baw and Buller, 10 to 20 cm for Falls and Hotham - only highest slopes.

    Friday: up to 5 cm for Baw Baw and Buller, 5 to 10 cm for Falls and Hotham - only highest slopes.

    Dry from Saturday.
     
  50. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Thanks Jane
    Do you see any resorts suffering from rain/snow shadow due slightly unusual direction of moisture flow?