Predictions June 2nd to June 10th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Katanga, May 18, 2011.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    Pixie - NSW today. VIC tomorrow
     
  2. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    [​IMG]
     
    #352 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 8, 2011
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  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    please refer euphemism thread.

    btw... Thredbo is a very pronounced valley.. faces the perfect direction for moist onshore
     
    #353 Donza, Jun 8, 2011
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  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Baw Baw going well so far as I thought it might. Lucky mountain.

    Huge amounts of moisture forecast by AXR-R tomorrow off the east coast. Temperatures should be fine initially as it is so cold. Baw Baw again, Thredbo/Perisher and if the pressure is low enough, Falls/Hotham could pick up some nice falls.

    This is the second "part" of this system IMO.
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    June 2nd - June 6th has passed.

    Use a different prediction thread.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions June 2nd to June 6th

    That dates should be just legthened out
    Its the same system

    Please
     
    #356 Donza, Jun 8, 2011
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  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    [​IMG] The thread title is clearing June 2nd - 10th and its the same system.
     
    #357 Stratus, Jun 8, 2011
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  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    3pm GFS optimistic on moisture values for the next few days.
     
  9. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Though AXS R much more so!!
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still indicating massive precipitation in East Gippsland.

    [​IMG]

    IMO, we don't want cold smoke this time of year. Plenty of cement to build a base, that's what's needed.
     
    #360 Claude Cat, Jun 8, 2011
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  11. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Agreed CC, but when are we gunna see a standard cold out break with a big fat rain band that goes from wet sleet, to wet snow, to pukage?!! Off topic I know.....

    What's your call for the big 5 tonight?
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO hard to tell.
    I don't think Buller, Falls and Hotham will get huge totals. perhaps 5-10cm
    Baw Baw could get another 15cm (that's through tomorrow).
    Thredbo could score big, but it depends upon how far that moisture penetrates. I'm perhaps a little pessimistic, 15 - 20cm.
    Perisher will be between that and Falls/Hotham.
    I wouldn't be surprised if Bombala gets a dump of snow, in fact I expect it (at least around it).
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I think Falls and Hotham could do OK tonight, 10cm - 15cm. Though due to topography they always fail at picking up snow from the S and SSE, especially Falls. Wild Card I guess.

    My hopes for Baw Baw are slightly decreasing now, because the temps are pretty marginal. I would hope that it does not start raining in the next 48hours, though it is certainly possible. If you are going up to Baw Baw for a visit, tomorrow would be the best time to do it IMO.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw will not be in the + until tomorrow morning at the very earliest.
     
  15. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    There seems to be a weird rain "hole" on the radar between say baw Baw and Swifts creek area. I am wondering is that just the radar no picking up the moisture once it blasts over the main Vic range and falls as snow? Studying the Sat. loops all arvo (day off!), I was super optimistic of ok falls at Hotham and Falls and better for NSW, but after looking again just now, the radar and sat pic suggests otherwise. The big white Sat Pic blobs look awesome but they seem to be dropping their juice off shore. I am still thinking 15-20cm in NSW too actually, there is a truck load of instability/moisture/- temps in the region, and the feed looks set up perfectly for the Thredbo Valley.
     
  16. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    IMO I might add....
     
  17. choc

    choc One of Us

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    Maybe another 10-20 in this for the eastern resorts today?

    Edit: IMO from my extensive weather knowledge that comes from looking at other peoples forecasts.
     
  18. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    I don't think it just radar blind spots. The hi-res Access-R model has been predicting this for several days - precip concentrated on the east Gippsland coast; little extending to the mountains. Someone more knowledgable might explain, but it's clearly a characteristic of the system (uppers?), not just an orographic effect.
     
    #368 Gerg, Jun 9, 2011
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    From my experience these sorts of systems do not have the upper level instability extended past the coast (well where the mountains begin) or the force behind them to really push the fronts and rain into the mountains. This is opposed to a traditional NW front which picks up quite a bit of steam before it whacks into the mountains.
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The current map shows that the pressure is becoming quite high, around 1020hPa in Melbourne and around 1016hPa in Gippsland. Pressures this high will reduce instability very quickly. The cloud in east Gippsland is pushing in from the SSW, as it loops around the low out in the Tasman between Victoria and NZ.

    Generally speaking, the only southerly systems that produce good snowfalls at Hotham, Falls Creek and the NSW resorts are ones that have lower pressure and are pushing cloud in from the SSE. This direction finds a "gap" that allows orographic lift to occur over 30-40km (ideal) for Hotham and Falls, while a SSW has to traverse more than 100km of mountain. Even a due south wind will need to traverse about 80km of mountain.

    [​IMG]
     
    #370 Sandy, Jun 9, 2011
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  21. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So... basically we're buggered?
     
    #371 Budgiesmuggler, Jun 9, 2011
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  22. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thgis morning sat loop still showing cloud moving in from SW. Need the low to move just a little bit further north so it turns more SE.
     
  23. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Update:

    The airflow is now originating from a warmer place, wrapping around the low, so it is not as cold as it was. The snow line will rise to the upper slopes during the day.

    We are on track for all alpine areas to see at least 20 to 30 cm total by Friday.

    What is left:

    Today – up to 5 cm for Baw Baw (wet snow) and Buller, around 10 cm for Falls and Hotham – only highest slopes, but 20 cm is possible.

    Tomorrow – up to 5 cm for all – only highest slopes and a snow/rain mix at times.

    Dry from Saturday morning.

    IMO
     
  24. GSea

    GSea Hard Yards

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    Just wondering what kind of a base we'll end up with after this system passes,
    in regards to the amount and type of snow that's fallen ( dry vers. wet)
    will it make for a good base ?
     
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wetter snow makes for a better base, as it compacts better, and it is more dense, so the same depth of wet snow will pack to a deeper base than the dry snow.
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like a freezing cold first front to really cool/freeze the ground, then a follow-up fall of wet snow 7-10 days later to really pack a base down.
     
  27. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Forecast period over.

    However, BoM forecasting a few breif snow showers for opening weekend, then cold nights under the H for the start of next week.
     
  28. Sinyk

    Sinyk First Runs

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    Yeah. I've observed folks enjoying all that good white stuff at Perisher today; and I predict I'm not going to be happy until I'm down there enjoying it with them. [​IMG]
     
    #378 Sinyk, Jun 10, 2011
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