Predictions: May 20th to 25th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 10, 2011.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Showing signs on the latest EC run around these dates. Looks promising......

    A big system with a weak high in front of it as well as a nice ridging effect to the back.

    Yes it is a long way out but EC can be good at picking these.....

    Will update.....
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2011050912!!/
     
    #1 FourSquare04, May 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    Yeah I was going to start this one but had second thoughts.

    Access showing a big low developing too - however i'm not convinced yet as its too hard to tell how the highs will position themselves.

    Fingers crossed though.
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    I like at the moment- I had a look at this model this morning to see the shape of ridge of the next belt of H...
    and gee whizz, thats something we haven't seen for a while...A high getting a move on.
     
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    This afternoons GFS not too crash hot with those highs.

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Stratus, May 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    not that strong though...
     
  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    Woopsies thats this mornings GFS, I think this afternoons will be out shortly.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    288 hours out.

    [​IMG]

    So take it with a massive grain of salt, IMO
     
    #7 Claude Cat, May 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    I have a bad feeling this system could be wedged South. Hope not.
     
  9. Sinyk

    Sinyk First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    My own opinion is it won't be a good one. I'm more interested in what looks like developing for 26/27/28 May.
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    GFS has nicely shaped high's...ACCESS has a bit of a sloppy ridge around these dates.

    However, I am more convinced with the system. Feels like there will be "a lot of room to move" as I like to think of it, between the trailing and leading High.

    Looks like it will be 22nd - 26th now.

    Still a long way out!
     
  11. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    Yep still a long way out and while it's not looking all that flash at the moment you never know.......EC has picked long range systems then gone off them, then gone back onto them again so it's a waiting game at the moment......

    Going on the latest update, you would think that it appears to be pushed south by a building High but then coming back later in the month (which could be a good thing anyway as it will be closer to the season start) as Sinyk & The Frog are predicting......but again we'll see how the model updates go over the weekend!
     
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    mate I disagree, I think its looking better at the moment than yesterday.
    check the uppers chart for your date range.. see that bubble of ver cold air down south.
    then compare it to the MSLP
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    see how far south that high is of perth?.
    obviously its all pie in the sky at the moment..but as you say EC seems to pick these systems at 240 -then goes cold..
     
    #12 Donza, May 12, 2011
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  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 20th to 23rd

    The high positioning and vigor in the frontal system is completely possible. The jetstream has already been tapped once this week, it is completely possible it happens again and then we're all in the good stuff. LWT isnt on board so much for this period, but it is forming a more prominent 4-node pattern. 5-node is better IMO but this time of year ill take 4-node set ups. The leading high might be a problem for this one, and may provide the 'squeeze' we dont want.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Not impossible, IMO
    Just at 300 hours out I find it hard to get too exited at this stage.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #14 Claude Cat, May 12, 2011
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  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    [​IMG] at GFS at 300 hours

    Miss Jane Miss Jane
     
    #15 Donza, May 12, 2011
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  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Will high pressure systems weaken as they move over warmer Tasman waters?
     
  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Latest GFS 180 out

    [​IMG]
     
    #17 Stratus, May 12, 2011
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #18 Claude Cat, May 12, 2011
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  19. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    My run was outdated by 6 hours anyway.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    There you go, 3pm run
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #20 Claude Cat, May 12, 2011
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  21. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Donz, I haven't given up but I was just commenting on this morning's runs not looking that promising......but then I took a look at the extended GFS & the latest EC run is back on board with something brewing nicely.........

    [​IMG]
     
    #21 FourSquare04, May 12, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    FSQ

    thats a season starter
    and more
    wow
    sheet...<goes off to check snowboard and gear> QBW might be more than a piss up
     
  23. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I think this one will be a nice system. It wont penetrate as far North into the Central Tablelands but it should deliver 25cm above 1600M.

    We currently have a high that is moving East at a very nice speed for this time of year. We have some moist air and a low drifting south off the west coast of WA. We have a nice strong cold front (Node) in the vortex and as a final kicker, we have a developing low just under South Africa that seems to be getting the best of the trailing high pressure so with a bit of luck, this low will drift south east in front of the trailing high and meet up with the cold front below it,k which will give us a really good chance of good snow by Sunday (at this stage)

    Mix in some warm water temps that I don't believe the models are picking yet and we could be on another winner
     
  24. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yep. I like how far west the trailing high is and how slow its progged to move. In fantasy land (exten GFS), it actually has that trailing high stalling for 3 days east of WA which would be epic if it did happen.

    Long way out though.
     
    #24 Stratus, May 12, 2011
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  25. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    FSQ, I agree. This is the system I mentioned above. And the Trailing Low should hopefully get dragged into a NE drift under the high so we could see a double banger.
     
  26. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Sorry all, let me try to quantify properly. I struggle to put my forecasts into a written format.

    The current high over the bite seems to drift east at a greater speed than we normally see this time of year.

    The trailing high currently sitting under South Africa has a developing low above it which looks like it should drift SE and sneak in front of the high which will help to slow it down.

    Below the trailing high, we have a strong Low and Cold Front that should move NE as the high stalls.

    As the southern Low and front moves NE, it should meet with the northern low that is developing and heading SE and combine into a very moist and cold system.

    The only problem I can see at present is if the low moving South just off the WA coast which is at the tail end of the current high, stalls, then we could see some rain before the main low hits.

    But I am optimistic that this will not happen as the WA low should move rapidly south to allow the trailing High/ 2 Low system move in.

    We should see the current WA Low again next month once it rounds Antarctica.
     
  27. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    EC going out on its own with that Low forming. Wonder if it will pick this one so far out?
     
  28. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    EC has done it many times before Josh......it's a reliable ol' model!

    But in saying that, be prepared for the rollercoaster ride, It will probably come and go over the next week on the model runs and then bang - get a hold of it again from 5 - 7 days out!
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    OK my thoughts:

    The models I look at for the most reliable forecast >7 day out (yes, now you should be laughing) are telling me 2 things. 1 is to worry about the tropical moisture injection from the low currently in the Pilbara region. This could make or break this system. 2 is that this tropical moisture injected low will peak too early, but it's remnants will be picked up by a trailing low, which is much stronger, and will peak later. I dont believe the models are correctly predicting the amount of moisture left behind by front 1 (tropical) and this will influence the temperature of front 2.

    On a positive note, LWT is moving to a 5 node setup and there is a node over the 'right' parts of our country for this forecast period. Let me be honest in saying that this is still a week out, but I can see 2 feet or rain below 1800m and then 10-15cms of snow at this stage. My hope is that the high stalls up the pilbara low remnants and it links up earlier with the stronger cold front.
     
  30. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Is BOM still doing a LWT plot? Can't find it on the new site. Out of favour, it seems.

    This from NOAA is interesting to contemplate if you want to try to understand how the thing works. We're looking for one of those big blue bulges to spew our way - rather just sweep across us, as many think. Plot seems to only update infrequently. Note 5-day running mean, plotted centred - so current plot is data up to 10 May.

    [​IMG]
     
    #30 Gerg, May 13, 2011
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    EC is suggesting it will be cold enough, IMO

    [​IMG]

    GFS still looks good.
    Still 240 hours out.
     
    #31 Claude Cat, May 13, 2011
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  32. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Spag for 22 May (not a static link). More blue than red, so a decent chance. But "2 feet of rain", err, don't think so...

    [​IMG]
     
    #32 Gerg, May 13, 2011
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  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Sorry Gerg, 2 feet OF SNOW OR Rain below 1800m and then 10-15cms of snow. I should have been clearer.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    spag shows some good baked beans...
    hmm
     
  35. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Cold baked beans [​IMG]
     
    #35 Gerg, May 13, 2011
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Stay on topic ..
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I am
    baked bean refers to the shape of the spaghetti plot.
    Its longer ala bean over the Australian mainland on the 22nd may.
     
    #37 Donza, May 13, 2011
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  38. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Me too; will be a cold bean (IMO).
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yeah thats a polar express there..
     
    #39 Donza, May 13, 2011
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  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Latest EC Run (Thursday 12 UTC) has gone off this system again with the high building......the roller coaster ride continues!

    Tomorrow's run will probably have it back on again.....I guess we'll have to wait until mid next week before we have a better idea.....
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Not so, IMO. Look at my previous post.

     
    #41 Claude Cat, May 13, 2011
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    3pm GFS has this sliding out to the 23rd, IMO
     
  43. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    It is starting to look that way as the trailing high seems to be stalling under South Africa at present.

    On a good note, as this high stalls, it is allowing a nice traffic jam of lows/fronts to build below it which should hopefully mean at least one hits us with full force.
     
    #43 Katanga, May 13, 2011
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  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    highly doubt the system will slide down, and I dont believe for a second the trailing high will ridge like is being forecast. The high looks to stall west of WA which will allow plenty of room for development for the low.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    6pm EC has the possibility it might slide out even further (date wise), IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #45 Claude Cat, May 13, 2011
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  46. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I feel an urge to say that I think* the High anchored to the SW will split cell, as the ridging over WA is suggesting, with a weaker centre coming up over central Australia eventually, but the main body to the south is goin to draw up some amazing cold air and nothing is going to stop it, at least this is my* scenario..and furthermore Im going to go out on a ledge and say this could* be a momentus setup, which is reminiscient of very early 90's winters of enormous developing Highs to the SW splitting and giving room in the right area for higher latitude development of low pressure and tragectories of antarctic origion cold air to move north uninterrupted.
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    This IMO looks like a double system
    first 22nd
    second much stronger 24th
    looking very tidy
    watch the highs not the lows
    uppers looking very cold
    LWT is looking amplfied
    spag plot for 500 shows alot of penetration
     
  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    A double banger eh Donz? Got any room in your caravan for the LWE if it comes off?!

    I wonder how long it will take for somebody to say that this has the possibility of resembling 28th May 2000 dump........

    Back on topic - Still not giving up and IMO could go either way, but this system sure has 'potential'
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Gone on this mornings GFS and EC runs, IMO
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    First front is peaking way too early, although it will give SW WA some much needed rain. Second front looks to be squashed by the highs and moving on very quickly, so not much love there either. GFS is progging a beautiful LWT 5 node setup for this period though, so I hold out some hope yet.