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Predictions: May 20th to 25th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, May 10, 2011.

  1. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Agree it appears to peak over WA now and then get nudged south by a ridging high. The pressure progged for that ridging high though is not large so I still have a bit of faith this could change IMO
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    3pm GFS looks better than this morning, IMO.
     
  3. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yea, it does look better more moisture with the front and it looks like it will hang around for a little bit longer,

    It is not back to where it was yesterday afternoon, still 200hrs out thought, so still plenty of changes coming, IMO
     
    #53 Sweens, May 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Latest ACCESS G still shows signs of hope.

    If the leading high got a hurry on, weakened, or both, we would be on big time. If it moves 500kms furthur East then forecast that would be enough. Trailing high is behaving and remaining quite far West.

    [​IMG]

    Also note our warmer surface temps in the bight helping out.
     
    #54 Stratus, May 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Latest EC run still not giving up on this system where as Extended GFS has it dying in the a$$..........EC now going for a weak front on the 20th followed a stronger burst from 22nd to 25th........

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #55 FourSquare04, May 15, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    theres still a good vibe about this one IMO.
     
  7. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Latest batch of charts have lots of moisture with this front:
    [​IMG]

    As good as that looks, the warm air from the high infront hasn't cleared out and it is going to be very borderline as to when and at what temperature the moisture falls at, IMO,
    [​IMG]
    Still 192 hours out so plenty of time for things to change
     
    #57 Sweens, May 15, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I think this system not going to disappoint easily. All charts pretty much agree of a strong passing low, and stalling high over WA. This will give us a fetch, passing cold front and some snow at least. But the potential is there for a lot more snow early on - if the low @ 120hrs can defy being wedged south (this will pretty much depend on how far east the leading high is, it needs to get a hurry on).

    So I still have hope for a semi-bombing low around +168hr, even though its not being shown on the charts.

    Edit:

    This evenings ACCESS going for a long elongated high which is the last thing we would want.
     
  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    The whole last 10 days of may smack of Potential I think.
    Not before mostly melt this week tho
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    AXS is whack this morning at +144 so I cant believe anything after that. It has the first front way too warm though. GFS is liking a cold pool with associated cut off wreaking havoc across the SE. LWT has a node over us pretty much this entire period. End result, there is plenty of potential here.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Agreed.com.au

    I'm looking very closely at this
    it smells of teen spirit.
     
    #61 Donza, May 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #62 The Plowking, May 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    [​IMG]

    that is some big beans
    cold too
     
    #63 Donza, May 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. timonearth

    timonearth Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    wow..... never seen a 28 day rain forecast like that before... fingers crossed we get some cold temps to put all that moisture to good use.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Summary of system going by the models, IMO.

    GFS shows potential. 22nd:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    24th
    [​IMG]

    EC
    22nd
    [​IMG]
    23rd
    [​IMG]

    ACCESS: 22nd
    [​IMG]
    24th
    [​IMG]

    IMO lots of potential, but may or may not come off. Temps seem a little marginal on the 22nd, possibly snow high. 24th is possibly better, IMO as it's colder, but is there enough moisture?
     
    #65 Claude Cat, May 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    16th 12UTC EC run is still out on a limb with this system where as other models have virtually put it to bed....it will be interesting to see what happens! I wonder if we will see a downgrade on the next EC run to come out today or........?
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    happened with the last system
    two things
    EC likes
    LWT is amplfied perfectly on the 24th
    IMO the other models will wake up and shake off their mayitis
    Going purely off EC i see some decent period of snowfall
    72 hours in fact
     
    #67 Donza, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Keep making those bullish calls Donza! Maybe this year it will favour the bulls!
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Models are interesting this morning. Actually this is looking a lot like the system we had last week, IMO.
    EC likes it, cold from Sunday, but GFS and ACCESS do not which is what we saw last week too.
    EC showing 15mm of rain for Melbourne from Sunday, a lot more for Thredbo (26cm after 26mm rain Sunday)
    http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Thredbo/long.html

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #69 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Its EC making the calls.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    That trailing high is so perfectly positioned.

    IMO this will upgrade on the other models over the next 24 hours.
     
    #70 Donza, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    High is good, pressure is OK (could be lower), moisture is acceptable for the moment, the models are progging good conditions for orographic lift. I am >50% on this one.
     
  22. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Just need that high to stay put over SW WA, ACCESS shows an elongated High over much of Southern Aus over the forecast dates
     
  23. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Just noticed GFS starting to comply with EC, could be better tho
    [​IMG]
     
    #73 Miffy, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    9am GFS run looks more promising, IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #74 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Considering how the models are moving it looks like rain starts later Saturday night or by early Sunday. There should be a long period of rain because the cold air is not likely to arrive until Sunday night. From then on though, it is snow all the way into the middle of next week.

    This system is not likely to be anywhere near as cold as the last one - I think we will have much of this one as snow on the upper half and rain down the bottom.

    The moisture pouring into Western Australia this week will bring a lot of rain first and the colder air is not till after it leaves. The unstable westerly is where the snow comes from for this one.

    20 to 30 mm of rain followed by 20 to 30 cm of snow.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Thanks Jane.
    EC (Norwegian) in fact is showing exactly what you're saying; for Thredbo: 26mm rain Saturday through Sunday followed by 26cm of snow.
    Temps look marginal on GFS and ACCESS, yet EC seems quite a bit colder, especially Tuesday.
     
  27. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    and yet snowatch is only showing 1-2cm over the whole week
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Snowatch uses a lot of GFS last I knew.
     
  29. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    snowatch?
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Stay on topic.
     
  31. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    On topic though I do like the potential. It's nice to see stuff happening on the models and not just blocking highs, even if it is a few weeks too early.

    Last 2 seasons have had very ordinary early seasons, it will be interesting to see if this year is different.
     
  32. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    BOM starting to like this one. Very low pressure, fingers crossed [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #82 Miffy, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Doesn't BOM use EC? Or are they using ACCESS now?

    It's looking promising..........if EC picks this, it will have picked it from a mile out *touch wood - please don't jinx!*
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I reckon they still use EC
    with elements of ACCESS

    I'm all over this like a fat kid on a hot chip
     
    #84 Donza, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    BOM charts look fine to me, IMO
     
  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I thought those BoM synoptic charts had human input?
     
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    3PM GFS has changed the story a tad. It has a low developing further north in the bight, strengthening, then dying out as it passes over VIC/ NSW.

    Considering the warm SST's this is not surprising. Could be too warm.


     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    you're right, but I think this is in line with EC

    [​IMG]

    It's not going to do wonders for the very limited "base" on Sunday, IMO
     
    #88 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Monday / Tuesdays cold front still looks likely (almost inevitable IMO, considering the position of the trailing high), though limited for totals.

    Looking forward to EC's update for the weekend however. Possibility here for good totals if something schmancy happens.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    GFS for monday morning shows the cold coming through, IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Still only going to be snow up high at this point of time, IMO
     
    #90 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    GFS has a cold front crossing morning Tuesday with about 10cm. Its forecasting the snow level down to 1000m by Tuesday night. Its actually been showing this scenario / set up for a few days now.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yes GFS looks terrific for Tuesday, IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Again this is in line with what EC was showing this morning IMO. Rain through Sunday turning to snow Monday & Tuesday.
     
    #92 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    What is your guy feeling Claude? About the weekend I mean. I think NSW might pick up some good stuff if its a little colder then forecast. VIC wont do too well with the NW'ly and W'ly.
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    GFS has some crazy 500hpa winds progged for tuesday

    deep polar express with a hook...

    hmmm
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    IMO, EC has been pretty much right with this one (as with the last). I'd say rain possibly even Saturday and Sunday with it turning to snow up high 1800m on Monday with the snow level lowering and Tuesday should be snow say 1400m up.
     
    #95 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    This evenings ACCESS an improvement I think.
     
  47. crazyman

    crazyman Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I am a bit new to this, but why would VIC resorts be worse off? Doesnt the cold temps come from the south, therefore passing VIC before NSW?
     
    #97 crazyman, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    The start of the system will be warm North Westerly tending Westerly which would bring rain. But I seem to recall NSW sometimes doing a bit better with these conditions initially (especially Perisher with high elevation). Depending on the system, NSW resorts can pick up snow when it is still raining in VIC.

    Still hard to say.
     
    #98 Stratus, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Snow level looks around 1800m Monday before lowering Monday. Vic alps only just reach that elevation while NSW alps just that little bit higher.
     
    #99 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Buller will be rained if the W hangs around for too long. It will be the last to turn to snow IMO.