Predictions: May 20th to 25th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 10, 2011.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Latest EC is a very nice improvement IMO.

    [​IMG]

    Has the cold air coming in earlier (midnight Sunday?) with a WSW'ly.
     
    #101 Stratus, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    that IMO will be what it ends up looking like
    with a degree of upgrade
    that is IMO the most conservative model, yet its held that prog for days
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #103 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    EC is a upgrade CC
    IMO and you can put me to this
    50cm plus to in some cases 80cm...if the charts i'm seeing hold true, snowlevel of 1400 sunday night dropping to 1200 monday
    period midnight sunday to midnight wednesday
    thats a snowfall rate of <1cm per hour.
    i'm seeing a potential cutoff,alot of moisture, strengthened LWT
     
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Potential for cut off yes. The trailing high is moving in a little faster for my liking. But then again, who knows, could stall.

    It looks likely will get a spinning tasman low either way.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    infact..post that chart after the one you've posted
    the 168 hour

    please

    btw
    this has some hallmarks of special
    IMO
     
  7. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    No kidding! GFS is off the hook, loving the 850 temps as well, throw in some upper support and thredbo will have half the joint open QBW, that is IMO.
     
    #107 davidg, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Here we go:

    [​IMG]

    Its +168 dont forget. Unfortunately.
     
    #108 Stratus, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I see a few hands up for a season starter.
     
  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    1 word: Wowzer
     
  11. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Access is predicting that High to hold over W.A so maybe we could get a prolonged spell of small totals
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Please explain?
    IMO I cannot see anywhere near that amount of moisture.
    Certainly 20 or 30cm is possible based on EC, but 80cm??
     
    #112 Claude Cat, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    You have to predict what the charts are not yet showing. [​IMG]
     
    #113 Stratus, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Ok purely off EC
    yr.no has 26cm of snow- at 1370 metres no? village thredbo , last week the village got 5, the mountain 20 overnight
    that translates to a mountain snowfall of 60cm IMO- conservative
    I looked at the moisture rates and translated them to per hour rates...
    then I looked at the freezing levels and reconciled them against the moisture levels
    put it this way simply
    if you were to have a system producing snow over a period of 72 hours and right now i reckon thats conservative time estimate going off the way its shaping up at a snowfall rate of a average of 1cm per hour..which is pretty conservative and lower of the scale..well what would you think the end result would be ? 20cm?
    again this is for perisher and thredbo...buller IMO will get some rain
    too westerly at times
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Man, you are thinking too much donza, what happened to the vibe?
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Even the Norwegian EC is only showing 30cm of snow (Monday through Thursday) for Thredbo (it was showing 26cm this morning).
    To expect more than double that is frankly not supported by any model and is more wishful thinking than anything else IMO.
     
  17. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    looking good to me. a system doesn't come for 3 days and drop 20cm. think outside the box. i dont like relying on models to pick exact moisture amounts.
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    um CC...i might be wrong but thats the village
    thats not the mountain
    huge huge diff
    to the factor of 2 to 3 times
     
    #118 Donza, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    CC wanted a diagram
     
    #119 Donza, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Why stop at 80cm?

    I see 3 chances here for Perisher.

    1. Depending on the final pressure and wind, it has a chance of picking up snow from the initial NW'ly into W'ly on Sunday.

    2. It will pick up snow from the cold front (approx Monday at this stage, which will continue throughout Tuesday.)

    3. IF the high stalls then I am pretty much convinced the low will strengthen or re-develop in the tasman, which will favour another sweep for Perisher and NSW especially.

    This could well be a 5 day system.

    I am being very optimistic however!
     
    #120 Stratus, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yeah i agree with all that
    but i'm kinda not sure of what happens past tuesday wednesday...
    but what youre saying is a three feet storm
     
  22. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Definite ground cooler.
     
  23. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    IMO 10-15mm of rain on Saturday-Sunday M'Night, 5-10cm on Monday - down to 1700m, 10-15cm Tuesday - down to 1200m, 5-10cm Wednesday- down to 1400m

    Overall 20-35cm, probably on the higher end of that for the top of resorts, with bottom of Thredders probably getting 10cm in the end, IMO
     
  24. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Been a while since I've had a look in here, but about time. Great to see a white start across the mountains already, and lots of excitement about [​IMG]

    I agree with Sweens from looking at GFS to about Monday, though feel the Tues/Wed snow may not really eventuate, at least not for anything other than perhaps a little at Baw Baw/Lake Mountain.

    Of course we are gazing into the not-so-reliable crystal ball of 6+ days out, so things are bound to change before then, picture should be a much clearer by Thursday I'd hope.
     
    #124 Djon, May 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Djon, where ya been mate, miss your insights dude. Claude Cat, Four Square, Donza, Afact, your all a bunch of legends, lovin' your constant debate over every mm, snowflake, outlook, and prog chart, it's f*%king brilliant!!! To stay on topic, I concur that if the trailing high stays put, there is significant chance of a cut off forming in the absence of any pressure in the Tasman, thus potentially keeping the pressure low, atmosphere unstable and moist with quite a good long SSW feed.........throw in some follow up fronts with associated cold pools and we could well see some great falls thru the middle of the week. The high is the key for me, we have the other ingredients: No blocking high in the tasman, progged decent SW fetch with moisture, low pressure values and reasonably cold air mass. Regardless of the final totals, we must all agree that this is the first "normal" late Autumnal weather pattern we have seen in bloody years and years, probably 2000. Every second High seeming to want to stall below Perth allowing lower pressure, colder air and proper fronts up the conveyor belt over our beloved hills! Good girl Mother Nature, we love ya!!!
     
  26. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    ACCESS and EC doing the whole "peaking too early" thing this morning. Suck it up fellas, have another beer and push through, the party never stops in Perth!!! There is still action about though and GFS is more optimistic, let's see what the afternoon brings.
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yeah im seeing pretty much the same here smitty, although LWT has died down a bit too, looks confused about what's going to happen after Friday/Saturday. Let's hope for some clarity tonight. AXS saying it's going to be way too warm.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Certainly a significant downgrade on EC this morning, IMO.
    Still some snow on Monday, but little afterwards.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Personally I think the models are struggling this morning
    Nothing looks right
     
    #129 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I agree Donz, something don't look right on EC's latest run. Waiting patiently for the Wednesday 00Z run......
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Looking at the 9am GFS run, there striking resemblance to last weeks system on Tuesday, IMO
    Strong SE system, cold.
    Another Baw Baw / Thredbo type system if it comes off.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Although the snow level on Wednesday could be very high in the south, snow could be seen a fair way in to NSW.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #131 Claude Cat, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Todays ACCESS R is out.

    For Saturday (its max forecast range), it shows the leading high just west of NZ, with a centre of 1030hPa instead of 1032hPa shown by GFS/AXS. Also for a bit of reference, surface pressure over the alps is at 1020hPa instead of 1024hPa shown by GFS/AXS.

    So it has the leading high weaker with a less dominant affect over SE Australia which may help our system penetrate further north, sooner. Worth pointing out.

    [​IMG]

    Very tight gradients around the low too, which I like.
     
    #132 Stratus, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    ACCESS R this afternoon looks much more in line with the other models than what it was doing earlier today... making me feel much better.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Its making more sense...?
    Interesting that cold pool is to the west of the low.
    helping it cook a wee bit hey.
     
    #134 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    & Look at those warm SST's in effect. <3
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    AXS-R has much better uppers temps as well
    500hpa winds look way more positive.
     
  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    BOM 4 day update is out, looks to be in line with EC and if anything, a slight downgrade [​IMG]

    There's still time though....!
     
    #137 FourSquare04, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    This arvos GFS run, snowlevel of 1200 or less and heaps of moisture, IMO
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #138 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Nice Donz, looks similar to yesterday's EC run do u think?
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    aye it does laddie
    It does

    look at the Hook !!! that cold air does not move from the direct south fetch it has
    its just later than progged
     
    #140 Donza, May 18, 2011
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Certainly better than yesterday, IMO
    [​IMG]
     
    #141 Claude Cat, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    IMO assuming GFS is right, no snow until at least later on Monday, possibly afternoon/evening.
     
    #142 Claude Cat, May 18, 2011
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  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yeah thats what i'm reading into it
    It might be wishful thinking, but i do think GFS is still a wee bit wacked
    I do think it will snow around midnight sunday...at least up high.
     
    #143 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    GFS is showing a freeze level of 2600m over the alps for 12GMT Sunday (which is what around midnight our time??).
     
  45. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I think ECM may be more favourable this afternoon.
     
  46. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    The 5440 bulges to Wagga to the North but not as far East as Albury by 10pm Sunday
    This would normally bring midnight snow to Perisher Thredbo by past experience
     
    #146 MisterMxyzptlk, May 18, 2011
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I think you might be looking at an old chart, because I don't see the 540 line extending into Australia until 12z Monday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #147 Claude Cat, May 18, 2011
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  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Going off GFS this arvo
    I'm going for a ice age next week
    might have to ramp my call up
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    so i guess you've all seen fantasy land GFS now aye?

    whats that a metre snowfall to 1000metres?
    plus
    [​IMG]
     
    #149 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    IMO, (and just going on 3pm GFS), the amount of snowfall I expect is about the same as before (ie 30cm +- 10cm), it's just that it's going to be over Tuesday & Wednesday.