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Predictions: May 20th to 25th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, May 10, 2011.

  1. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Wow!!!! if only
     
  2. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    To me GFS looks entirely unrealistic
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I disagree CC
    with those temps I think you can double or tripe moisture readings

    but will or would I trust GFS?
    its too good to be true
     
    #153 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Lets see what EC says later tonight.
    IMO, GFS traditionally goes all in at this sort range (144 hours) before correcting itself.
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    [​IMG]

    just nuts
     
    #155 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Did someone say tasman?

    Yeeww

    [​IMG]
     
    #156 Stratus, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I agree - its fantasy land
    but
    if even if its 75% right it will give may 2000 a run for its money

    just looked at the 500hpa and jesus
     
  8. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    i've got half a chubby.

    Think i'll be cancelling field work for late next week.
     
  9. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Looks like one of the really strong surges of around 1968 or the early 70's. Where snow fell to about 350 metres (eg Quirindi in Northern NSW) in 68.

    Crazy if it came off!!
     
  10. FlintSnowGear

    FlintSnowGear First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    wow, if that 75% right it could be the best start to a season on record (cant back it up with data) but from memory 2000 was the winner at least in my lifetime. of course it will down grade but wow, looks like a good follow up as well........ bet the resorts are jumping with joy with this sort of pre season action before the official opening .
     
  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    the resorts may be caugh unprepared. Hope so. I envisage a week of tracking out Thredbo before they get the lifts running.
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    If EC shows it then i'll get excited.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Stay on topic - weather predictions only please.
     
  14. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Ok EC is out, and it doesnt' show it.

    [​IMG]

    Thats for Wed 25th btw..
     
    #164 Stratus, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Yep

    not even slighlty

    IMO the truth will be somewhere like EC progged at 240 hours
     
    #165 Donza, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Norwegian EC has even taken the snow off the board all together for Thredbo.
     
  17. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    GFS is on krac. It has the core of the tasman LP sitting in the low 980's.

    IMO, Our main issue is temps and pressure. I think the models are currently struggling with the moisture levels and are underestimating the totals.

    IMO, the trailing HP will slow around Sunday as the leading HP moves away faster than predicted allowing the low to intensify below Vic and will drive cold SW winds over Vic and NSW early next week.

    I estimate 40cm for Hotham/Falls and a bit more for Perisher and the top of Thredbo as accumulation is blown in off the main range.
     
  18. Sinyk

    Sinyk First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Jeezus! If that comes off - and I highly doubt it will - we'll be seeing major dumpage in Canberra! That's just crazy; even more so for late May.

    Do I need to go buy myself some snow shoes for walking to work on Wednesday? *huh*

    I find myself simply unable to accept this prognostication.
     
    #168 Sinyk, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  19. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    To me the latest GFS makes it look like it may be a reasonably classic system for this time of year.

    * Borderline snow temperatures (2 to 0 degrees for 1800m) during the NW flow from early Monday morning
    * Cooling Monday night with some snow across all resorts
    * Drying up Tuesday night for most resorts as it turns to the SW.

    Baw Baw/Lake Mountain often do the best this time of year, and this may be the case here with the cooler SW. Wouldn't be surprised by 10-20cm for most resorts from Monday night, with an extra 10-20cm for the highest regions (1900m+) into NSW possible from Sunday night.

    Lets give the models at least another day to shake this out though before getting too excited [​IMG]
     
    #169 Djon, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  20. FlintSnowGear

    FlintSnowGear First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    yeah the models particularly GFS do take a while to get into the swing of things and usually start to prog real estimates by July as it (I think) forecasts of previous data and with new trends it takes a while to get its groove. it will be interesting to watch
     
  21. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I think the models may be struggling with this one as the system has stalled by a few days which has thrown the models out, hence GFS getting way over excited and EC going conservative.

    Every system is about timing but this is a little more about timing than most as there seem to be a lot of hail mary's being thrown into the mix at the moment.

    It will be a great year for weather watchers considering we have not seen similar variables since 74 which was before computer modeling even began.
     
  22. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Access is totally missing this one IMO.

    Needs to get its head together.
     
  23. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    I don't think that GFS chart is completely unrealistic.......even tho it does tend to always over predict. The " double yolk" LP cells sitting beneath the weakness between the two highs are 958hpa and 955hpa and will be given decent opportunity to surge northward once the leading high disipates. And despite the upgrade/downgrade game being played out, we are definately seeing a general upward trend in most charts. BOM has pressure dipping big time by Sunday night, and the positon of the trailing high seems to be agreed upon by all models. Massive potential this system, everything riding on how intent the the systrem is on cutting off and deepening. At the least we will see steady falls over 3 days then ok snowmaking conditions with a high passing over from Thurs to Mon. I am getting excited about the system due around 2-3rd of June, we need a thread!! Looks ridiculous on extended COLA charts!!!
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    Mod note. Predictions only. "Vibe", "goodness" etc does not constitute a prediction.
    Posts such as these will be moved to the Epic Weather thread. That what it's there for.
     
    #174 Claude Cat, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  25. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd to 25th

    CC..I was looking at the 5440..not the 5400..with these sorts of systems I think anything up to 5480 will bring high snow to the resorts...and I was more commenting on the timing of temps cold enough to potentially bring snow to the resorts.
    Having said that things have changed a bit since my last post.
     
  26. Mattoman

    Mattoman Hard Yards

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    Using the following links below as my data source I can only see IMO a bit of snow and a lot of rain.

    EC

    ACCESS

    I hope I'm wrong though, It would be great to see a big snowfall to create a nice base for the season opener!
     
    #176 Mattoman, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  27. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Mattoman, If you scroll back a couple of pages you will see the model runs from EC from yesterday and they were quite a bit more optimistic than the latest run (what you have posted). When I started this thread over a week ago, EC was onto this system like a fat kid on a smartie. Since then it's been and gone on the model runs but mostly leaning towards the positive. There's still over 72 hours to go and a lot can change between now and then.
    I have a lot of faith in the ol' EC model and I'm quietly confident it will swing back for the better *patiently awaiting the next run*
     
    #177 FourSquare04, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im still >50% onboard with this one, but tonight has made it interesting. Not in a good way.
     
  29. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    - off topic, not a prediction
     
  30. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

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    IMO Still too warm up until roughly Sunday Midnight/Monday Morning for any snow on the resorts, Monday should be good to down to roughly 1600m, anything from Tuesday onwards is below 1200m which means snow at all resorts, if the cold air comes even 12hrs earlier that is the difference in between whether this is a 40cm or 25cm dump
     
  31. Mattoman

    Mattoman Hard Yards

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    Ahh, I do see now, I find I get too disappointed when i see a chart indicated heavy snow that's more then 144 hours away but lets keep watching this one and hope it delivers snow!
     
    #181 Mattoman, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    9PM GFS is out. Very in line with AXS in terms of high placement.

    I dont like it.

    Its forecasting the initial NW'ly to hit Sunday midnight, with 20 - 60mm of precipitation before the cold front hits 24hours later.

    Once the front moves through it has the High unfortuently *not* stalling under WA, instead moving into the bight, creating a SE'ly with more moisture (rain or snow?).

    The low fizzles off to the East Coast before spinning off as an ECL or dying in the ass.

    Goodnight.
     
  33. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    1m + by Wednesday

    in Jindy.

    Double up top.

    IMO
     
  34. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] 1m in jindy would be insane though.
     
    #184 smitty484, May 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    I made the same SE call for the last system but is held a strong SW.

    forget the models.

    We have warm water SW of Perth. As the Highs drift into WA they hit the warmer water off the WA Hook and they drift south (warm land and water). as they drift south, the northern weak edge moves east across the mainland and we get elongated highs from SW to NE.

    All we need after that is some strong fronts to punch through, pick up some land moisture and dump precip on the ALPS. 25% rain then 75% snow.
     
  36. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    EC 12UTC update is out and it's looking more positive than the 00UTC run.......still doesn't look like it's quite got a handle on the scenario so we'll have to continue to play the waiting game and hope that the colder air injection comes through sooner rather than later........

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #186 FourSquare04, May 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think im almost ready to jump off this one. Some points from this mornings runs:

    - It is not cold enough, and moisture pickup in the southern ocean is ex-tropical moisture, which will make it warmer still.
    - 850mb temps are not favourable, and the coldest air is remaining W of the alps for pretty much the whole system.
    - 500mb temps are cooler, but they are by no means freezing cold to promote the instability and large, cold snowfalls. This would not be considered a 'deep' front or set of fronts in my opinion.
    - LWT is 'early' on this one, by the time the good stuff is supposed to arrive the LWT node has moved on.

    I will agree moisture is there, but I cant see snow at any stage before Tuesday night, and even then I cant see more than 10-20cms after a lot of rain. It's a nice cutoff scenario that would be perfect in spring for dam-filling, but as a season-starting front I cant see it happening from this one.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC still showing snow ... whereas GFS is showing epic rain
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO GFS has jumped right off this again, with a fair bit of rain on Sunday, and cold air only arriving Tuesday early AM, after-which there little is moisture (5-10cm ?).
    EC has a cold pool coming through very late Monday, and a better shape than GFS for Tuesday. Perhaps 15cm on this model for Tuesday? Higher up might do a little better IMO.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still having hissy fits and now it's back having a SE snow system on the 9am run IMO
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    At least EC has been reasonably consistent, I think I'll stick with that!
     
    #190 Claude Cat, May 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    EC has shown the most consistency for the past few days. ACCESS timing keeps jumping around and GFS is having huge mood swings, like it can do.

    Most likely: rain through Sunday and most of Monday, then change to snow up high later Monday and continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly extending throughout the alpine at times.

    How much? 20 to 40 mm of rain, possibly more. This part is from a cut off low so has the potential to bring a lot of rain. It is snow when we are in the southwest airflow (not southeast like some models have had) and is decent but doesn't have huge moisture. At least 10 cm up high, possibly 15 to 20.
     
  42. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did anyone see that wandering pool of cold air on the GFS scenario
    The coldest air they're programming for Wednesday is now on the NSW/QLD border!
     
  43. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ahh the pain of trying to predict snow in our marginal mountains! I remember it now after the long off season.
     
  44. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    AXS-R and GFS now quite similar for Saturday, low pressure system strengthening off Adelaide. Now just to wait and see which way it goes
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I did
    its been wandering for about 5 days now

    it will be somewhere.
     
    #195 Donza, May 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I'm not sure whats up with that. I think its just a typo.
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    EC has it cold enough for snow Monday evening at least. But not for Buller / Lake Mountain or Baw Baw.
     
  48. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    This afternoons AXS R has the low in a better position for Sunday IMO, could deepen and draw colder air up
     
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Lets compare:

    [​IMG]

    Highs remain in similar position but the low is earlier and a little stronger.
     
    #199 Stratus, May 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    [​IMG]

    Access R also showing cold uppers being fed into the system, early on, which is good.
     
    #200 Stratus, May 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013