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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 10, 2011.
Thats what EC has progged too Infact
I think this is looking better and more tradional.
If that low slides SE, then IMO i think we will see much colder air being drawn up over the mountains.
4 day BOM chart has a second low pressure system sitting south of Tas, looks to me as some very cold air associated with that
Chart might help
EC is very close to Access R. More traditional I agree.
That BoM chart looks nice
Tas low and original low teaming up, if the high stalls? For a second sweep.
Its getting better
GFS yesterday was never ever going to happen
but its been progging a very cold pool of uppers for many runs now.
correct me if i'm wrong going on past experience but doesn't that second little front on mon 10 pm usually mean a decent dump of snow ?
I reckon it looks pretty good
Latest GFS has cold arriving around midnight Monday, IMO
However GFS is only projecting 10-20mm or so moisture after that point.
With that deep southerly, it's looking like another Baw Baw special.
yeah cc, with the lower pressures and cooler uppers ahead of the first front, IMHO i see good wet base snow up high sunday in vic
If the BoM positoning of the low on Sunday holds, the NW feed for NSW is a possibility for snow up high too. Its such a classic winter line up it begs a positive punt. Perisher 30cm+
To simply annotate tonights ACCESS G Chart:
10mm - 25mm of pre frontal rain, (too warm for snow across the board)
Cold front approx midnight Monday.
10cm - 20cm of snow, with the latter from the SE, favouring Baw Baw.
Moisture drying up quickly by Thursday as the high moves in (without stalling / slowing).
Yes, this is similar to what GFS is saying too IMO.
EC doesn't have the cold coming through until Wendesday now, far to late to be useful, IMO. That being said, the EC chart is a bit odd tonight.
First front forecast has an injection of cold air prior to crossing WA.
With cold uppers think its a good chance for snow from early Sunday arvo +1700m ,lowering.
Can't see it IMO. EC shows 850mb temps of around 5C midday Sunday.
GFS is almost identical.
Look at the Sat 48 GFS.
Cold air there. Smallish pool.
Cant see it being +5 myself.
Cant see it snowing to 1700m and lowering on Sunday either brah. Im somewhere in between.
Yes, but even the same GFS run doesn't have it going anywhere, IMO
Lots of debate
00Z GFS run is telling me we have a freeze level of around 2000m at Hotham at around midnight Sunday night, so any time from then we can start to see falls up high. So my reading would be 10-20mm of the wet stuff prior, and perhaps 10-20cm of the drier stuff to follow on higher ground.
EC still doesn't appear to have an exact handle on the system even now, 48 - 72 hours out as CC suggested.
Anyone game enough to predict when it will get back on board?! I'm thinking overnight tonight......
Lots of debate indeed Djon, great to see such a interesting system so early on, let's hope there's a few more for 2011 (that produce the goods at the end of the day).
OK my thoughts once again:
I cant see any snow on Sunday or early Monday, at least not until sometime Monday night. I can see a fair bit of rain Sunday in the NE, possibly 40mm in areas, but it looks a bit patchy elsewhere. The cold pool is sitting way too far West on Sunday to be of any use to us, but this morning it appears a big larger and cooler. 500mb temps have also decreased giving a deeper front, although I still would not consider it to be strong/deep by my standards of what I would like. At some time on Monday night or Tuesday morning I can see snow developing at around 1700-1800m, lowering overnight and into Tuesday, depending on which model you look at. Some models are predicting snow down to 1200m, whilst other have it barely getting to 1600m. I am more inclined to go out on a limb and say there will be snow down to 1200-1300m on Tuesday. Im still thinking 10-20cms of snow for this period. LWT is past up by this stage and flattening out, which is not the best scenario, but I think we could see rainfall totals of 60mm+ in the NE (Read: 40mm rain and another 20mm once it turns to snow up on the hills).
The problem with this one has always been that tropical moisture injection, and not enough cold air injection.
Verm, I'm completely concur with that prognosis.
Let's hope im wrong and it's colder than im seeing
Do you think the continent has significantly warmed?
I'm jury out on this one
sat pic and uppers map looks pretty good...
MSLP charts - not so good..all over the place.
I'm not confident though of much more than 20 cents at 1200 on tuesday.
Well ACCESS is only showing 850mb temps approaching 0 over the alps at around 10am Tuesday.
9am GFS shows 1800 freeze level possibly few hours earlier.
EC is possibly the most encouraging with 0 850hPa Temps over western Victoria at midnight Monday.
The models really do seem to be all over the place on this RE the cold air.
IMO it looks like the moisture/cold air are not gonna intersect at a suitable time.
20cms to 1700 m at thredbo tuesday from 12am but alot of rain before that... The BOM seems to have completely abandoned this one, just saying rain on there forecasts.
Yeah I dont think BOM are mentioning it as yet because from there own maps dont suggest much white stuff till Tuesday which is outside their usuall forecast range at the moment.
Hope we get an upgrade this afternoon.
If i seen that,without any other model. I would say snow every day of the week.
I was just saying to a colleague at work today that you are better off putting forecast satellite imagery up on the web because it is often more informative than the MSLP map.
He replied that there is apparently an ACCESS-A IR image somewhere on the web. He put it on the web, thinking it was for internal use only (for forecasters to use)...but apparently some Astronomical society in Australia found it and are apparently very keen on it.
Click on this link and see if it works for you: http://flurry-bm.bom.gov.au/internal/cawcr_web/staff/ljr/projects/forcloops.htm
The high in the BOM chart shows the high dropping from 1036 on Monday Morn to 1030 by Tuesday night.
Seems a pretty rapid decline that may help to stall it into Tuesday and allow the colder air to move in.
All in all, this will be a good test system to show us what we are in for over the coming weeks. Are we going to see an early season of marginal temps or a great early season where the temps are just right for good snow.
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Oh well...that's probably a good thing!
yes donza i dont really look until now, and that westerley flow on sunday on the 4-dayer is around 1004, thats a low pressure westerley, on the sat i see cool air being drawin into west edge of hefty cloud. i'm gonna keep the dream alive, at least in my own head.
Latest 3pm GFS run isn't terrific, IMO.
Cold doesn't appear to be coming through until midday Tuesday now.
Still plenty of moisture in this system, but it appears it's falling as the clear kind.
ACCESS-R suggests the cold pool might be cold enough for the highest peaks in NSW later on Monday but it sure looks borderline to me. But using ACCESS as guide there will be minimal snow lower than 1800m for the whole event IMO ...
yeah the westerley crossing the alps in the day and not the night is a bit of a killer.....
Yeah a bit of a downgrade on GFS.
Winds forecast to change Westerly to SW'ly midnight Tuesday.
As far as I can see it from GFS, snow will start to fall with that change up high, then lowering throughout the day.
GFS is forecasting pre frontal rain: 20mm - 35mm. NSW should be spared the most rain IMO, and will do best with snow early on.
Then it's suggesting 10cm - 20cm of snow, and IMO Baw Baw will come out best overall due to the SE'ly change on Wednesday.
I still think this one may upset the models and deliver a white surprise.
Looking at the Satelite run, there is some speckled sitting behind the front. I will admit that is seems fairly thin in density indicating it is not as cold as we would like, but the question is, how will this weaker cold air mix with the airmass before and just after the front passes.
The initial front is right on the borderline IMO.
Once the SW establishes itself, I still have hope this will deliver more than predicted as the models are still struggling with convection levels IMO.
When the SW change comes, most models are suggesting pressure will be 1018hPa or there about, certainly not good for development IMO
Nope pressure will be too high then and you will get isolated showers and drizzle.
Though, for a glimmer of hope, check out our good friend AXS-R.
What's NOGAPS saying?
Models also show a sharp desintergration in the high which will alow the low and front to linger longer and keep pressure at least 4hp lower.
Game is still on IMO.
With average to warmer temps in the bite, plus Vic being soaked with moisture, I see the following.
Once the warm air is moved out thanks to the initial front, the trailing SW winds and fronts will do what I call a moisture scoop.
With that, I mean that following fronts will build moisture in their leading edge and as that moisture hits the western fields, it will dump its goodness in styles that we have not seen since the later 70's.
Can you provide something to back this up? Charts, anything?
IMO nothing on GFS or EC goes remotely near what you're saying and ACCESS only offers glimmer of hope, up extremely high.
CC, Historic: On the 15th May, the high was sitting below Adelaide at 1036hp.
This High was being squeezed from the NW by a double low that appeared to force the back (trailing) edge of the high into a more oval setup rather than an olyptical setup.
The current BOM setup shows a fatbelly high on tues with nothing below it whereas the Indian Ocean MSLP shows 3 LP's and a number of fronts lining up for a run.
The BoM 4 day setup is very close but it underestimates the Wednesday.
Highs are peaking in the west and are dropping pressure faster than the models predict. As the next high crosses WA, it will be strong but it will also fall apart quicker than the BoM Prog which will stall the high and allow a singular cold front (Wednesday) to push Nth and hit us right at the end of this prediction range. Big moisture and cold temps IMO.
Ps no idea how to post pictures or to lock them for history. A quick training lesson would be appreciated. Moving to Yarrawonga in 10 days so any local knowledge would be good.
The beauty of weather is that models are always wrong...
### IMO ###
Sorry Sandy. IMO
CC, Sandy and Others:
It is nearly impossible for me to show graphs and models for my predictions. I use such a wide range of info that makes it impossible to post pictures to correspond with my thought process.
In 2 Weeks, I should be able to scan and email my worksheets to you which will help to quantify my predictions.
At the moment, I am outside the technical range but I will be in Yarrawonga for the season which will allow me to put solid data to my theories.
Think its time for an observations thread.
Ok, my final prediction before the front hits,
Sat-Mon Night = 25-35mm of rain, possibly less for NSW, but only by about 5-10mm
Mon Night - Tue Midday = 5-10mm of rain
Tue Midday - Tue M'Night = Snow slowly lowering to around 1900m by 6pm, 1700m by around 9pm, 1900m = 10cm, 1700m = 5cm
Tue M'Night - Wed Night = Lowering to 1400m by 6am, snowing for most of the day, lightens up by end of the day, 10-20cm
All up - 1900m - 20-30cm, 1700m - 15cm-20cm, 1400m - 5-15cm,
Hopefully the cold air comes earlier than expected,
who cares .It's so "my space"
You can find the public version/s here : http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/ljr/projects/forcloops.htm