Predictions: May 20th to 25th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 10, 2011.

  1. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    My 2c on this system, and perhaps contradicting most other recent comments on this...

    The latest GFS run does look a bit screwy, but best as I can tell it looks like there will be mostly r*in, or rather damp snow from Sunday, before perhaps a little bit of the drier stuff early Tuesday morning (a few cm), clearing quickly. Nothing to get too excited about now [​IMG]
     
    #251 Djon, May 20, 2011
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9am GFS looks a little better for Tuesday now, IMO
    I don't think anything useful, snow-wise will happen until then.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Although the cold won't hang around long, but perhaps enough to see some snowfalls up high NSW
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #252 Claude Cat, May 21, 2011
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  3. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 day chart looking pretty fine for snow well before tuesday to me.
     
  4. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    maybe as it gets talked down, it ramps up!
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well see what the models say this afternoon, but 850pHa temps have looked far too warm for any sort of action until at least Monday night.
    IMO
     
    #255 Claude Cat, May 21, 2011
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  6. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    [​IMG]

    IMO an upgrade and looking more in line with GFS 9am run

    Looking better from late Sunday / early Monday onwards but as you say CC the 850 temps aren't that flash....

    Tuesday & Wednesday could get interesting for the Southern resorts - Buller, Baw Baw, Lake Mtn and Thredbo if that ECL kicks in.....pressure could drop to 1000hpa or slightly below which is encouraging.
     
    #256 FourSquare04, May 21, 2011
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  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    4PM GFS pretty much showing:

    20 - 30mm of rain up until midnight MONDAY. (But I have a feeling it shall be closer to 40mm.)

    Then snow starting midnight Monday up high, lowering throughout the night and into Tuesday, then continuing to lower into early Wednesday.

    So IMO, from GFS - NSW could pick up 25cm
    Hotham / Falls a little less, 20cm or so.
    Buller / Lake Mountain 10 - 15cm
    Baw Baw: 15cm - 35cm.
     
  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    AXS - R, is showing a much wetter story, and could mean more snow post frontal. However its 3 Day range means we'll have to wait a bit to see.

    IMO
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Infact, I concur with what you've said above.
    IMO 00z run of EC isn't encouraging either, marginal temps on Tuesday, but colder Wednesday, with a SE flow.
    Still smells of a Baw Baw system, but as it's that much lower, I think it's very touch & go.
     
  10. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The weather maps show all the signs of some reasonable snowfalls. It's only May(and warm), but the ingredients are there: Low pressure (993hPa), cold feed, follow up fronts.
     
  11. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Yeah, this looks like it will be too warm until it turns to the south, and by then it will only favour the likes of Baw Baw, and perhaps a bit at Buller & Lake Mountain. Really can't see any of the other resorts being left with any more than a cm or two.
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    What the charts were showing a few days back was cold air being injected into the low before it hit VIC. So it gave a possibility for NSW, Hotham / Falls a better chance of picking up snow before the Southerly hit. But I dont think that eventuated. Which now means only snow will be had with the S'ly and SE'ly (by the looks of things but who knows). IMO

    Baw Baw may be the wiener again. !!
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    This afternoons Access R is not a pretty story.

    - Lots of rain for all major resorts (though Lake Mountain and Baw Baw will be spared a bit of it IMO as it will be coming from the NW > W).

    - Maybe 40mm - 60mm rain for NSW, little less for VIC.
    A lot of convection around - so some unlucky resorts could find themselves under a bad cell and cop it big time

    - Cold air still progged midnight Tuesday, until then, 35hours of rain.
    Uppers are hot, no chance of snow with the westerly IMO. (This was some hope I had a few days ago).

    - Once the SW'ly kicks in, it looks like it will switch S'ly then SE'ly very quickly.

    Lucky Baw Baw may do the best out of this one (as long as temps are right with the cold blast).



     
  14. richo36

    richo36 First Runs

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    Hey All

    First time poster, been following the forums for a while now and thought I would finally jump in and start posting. I am new to weather reader, so forgive me if i say something stupid.

    Quick question:
    From looking at GFS, the cold temps are looking to come thru midnight Tuesday but looking at the surface pressure over the alps is it too high for snow? IMO it is sitting at around 1012 when the cold air arrives and only rises from there. Isn't this to high for snow?
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You're right that high pressure generally means low moisture (aka snowfalls at the right temps). The southerly fetch will pick up some moisture that will allow Baw Baw to get some falls, but it not going to be much (IMO).
     
    #265 Claude Cat, May 22, 2011
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  16. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Any chance of a lake effect style system for Baw Baw caused by cold southerlies driving over warm moist farmland?
     
  17. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Warm moist farmland? [​IMG]

    I can tell you now that land is not warm!
     
    #267 ice_man, May 22, 2011
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  18. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Warmer than the air yes?
     
  19. richo36

    richo36 First Runs

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    thanks cc.

    IMO baw baw will only get 1-5cm up top, the bottom will just get rain. all the other mountains will just get rain with a dustings of snow up top.
     
  20. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO Theres a good 20cm+ up high for Thredbo and probably similar for Perisher.
     
  21. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    IMO, there is more to this system than predicted.

    Mondays second front will cool the airmass and we will see light snow from 2am Tuesday.

    (Tues)The snow will intensify over Vic resorts from 6am and 9am for NSW resorts.

    The current high will stall 100klm SE of Adelaide and allow the sneaky Wed front to move in as per my predict on the 20/05/11 @ 8:58pm.

    The Wed Front will be followed by a stronger front on Thurs but we will only catch the trailing edge of this front delivering less than 10cm.
     
  22. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Interesting set of differing opinions in here, and in particular so close to the actual event!! [​IMG]

    Things look worse again to me based upon tonights GFS, with even Baw Baw not looking likely to pick up much, as it will only get cold enough for it's lower peak with later, drier air. It is possible some of the higher, more northerly hills will pick up a a few cm around the time it swings around from the west Monday night, and perhaps a little bit from the southerly, particularly since it looks like it is going to swing right around past due south which tends to let a bit more get up over the hills than a SW-S flow.
     
    #272 Djon, May 22, 2011
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Djon - I tend to agree. IMO there not much good out of this system apart from a good drink.
    But it is only May, [​IMG]
     
    #273 Claude Cat, May 22, 2011
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  24. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

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    hey all, haven't really been predicting for locally this season, more interested in NZ atm,

    I decided to have a look at the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from the previous event we had

    [​IMG]

    clearly a very active upper level surge in the jet stream over our neck of the woods

    compare this to the current situation

    [​IMG]


    in particular note how far south the polar jet is , should be much further north if we have any decent chance of snow


    [​IMG]
     
    #274 ben4386, May 23, 2011
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  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good post Ben, been a long time since ive checked those analysis charts.

    Still too warm in Melbourne this morning, gauge said 15C when I left for work.
     
  26. Winged

    Winged First Runs

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    I see little hope of much more than 10cm for the upper slopes of NSW imo

    Yucky system
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I never thought much of this one.
     
  28. toddles

    toddles Hard Yards

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    its not over till the fat lady sings.
     
  29. dopestylesss

    dopestylesss Hard Yards

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    at this time of year there is NOTHING wrong with a front that delivers 10cm to the upper slopes Winged
     
  30. dopestylesss

    dopestylesss Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    WILL UPDATE

    AccessR is showing the possibility for 5-10cms in NSW, temps are already below 0 in thredbo according to the AWS and this looks alot better then it has the last few days. Will be interesting in the AM IMO
     
  31. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    As stated, already below 0C in Thredbo. Maybe more cold air in this system than thought before, with plenty pushing up from the S.
    Tuesday will be interesting....