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Predictions: May 23rd - 27th (SiSFM Market - Emma)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, May 14, 2012.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    EC currently showing potential around these dates.....IMO

    At this stage, perhaps 5 to 10cm but plenty of time / potential with the trailing high in a good spot.....

    Thoughts - CC? Donz?


    Trading as 'Emma' in SiSFM
     
    #1 FourSquare04, May 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #2 FourSquare04, May 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    AXS also showing something for these dates. I put my comments in the 27th thread as the dates have been moving around a little bit. LWT has good potential around these dates, 5 nodes and one progged to be right on us as the front comes through.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    It's been looking like "something" for a couple of days.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Seems to tick all the boxes at the moment, but it is still 228 hours out.
     
    #4 Claude Cat, May 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Afternoon EC has this slipping out to at least the 24th, IMO
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    3pm GFS showing a clipper, IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #6 Claude Cat, May 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  7. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    That 25th chart looks 'reasonable' IMO. Temp and moisture will obviously determine the outcome. If the H doesn't ridge as forecast, could evolve into something....
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    High ridging from that position is unrealistic IMO, and the low looks a little too weak. IMO hopefully the low strengthens and the high dies back a little bit.
     
  9. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    i reckon it'll be a go, i think it's looked better further out than Dagmar did at comparable timescale. IMO
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    LWT very sexy tonight.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    May 2000 is on repeat...gone longer than a jim kelly hail mary...
     
  12. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    oh please don't say that this early. I think I felt some movement.........
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Big call.
    But the patterns look encouraging.
     
  14. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    oh puh-lease!
     
    #14 h2oskier, May 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Jim kelly went to four....but never won one....so don't show me too much love lol......but.! As Kristy (verm) said lwt looks nodey...spag charts are interested. Longrange gfs shows potential. Current mslp Antarctic charts look stacked. End of may is going to be a bit of a ride.imo.
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    That's it. Im on board the Donna-train.
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Sorry Kristy...its a polar express...no stops in cranny. Btw agree ridging high is illogical.
     
  18. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    I'm not feeling this one just yet, it's a bit far away.
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Btw I'm not joking about may 2000 esque system...it won't be the first change....that looks ok...but post that....say Thursday late into Friday is making me a little excitable
     
  20. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    minty??? [​IMG]
     
    #20 luvthabumps, May 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Menthol
     
  22. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    there needs to be an emoticon for the "woo hoo" guy who is holding it in and tip toeing around
     
  23. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Indeed is that a minty freshness I smell?

    Dammit you're getting me all pumped again... /sigh
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Looking ok on EC this morning IMO. Perhaps a bit stronger than the system from the weekend.

    [​IMG]

    Does look cold
    [​IMG]

    GFS is not entirely there with it yet.

    [​IMG]
     
    #24 Claude Cat, May 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    Yeah definitely stronger on those charts.

    On my charts - AXS has some stupid ridging high coming in from way out West, not too sure about that one. GFS loses it's way around 96hrs before coming back on board so I would not take what it's saying seriously. LWT looks even more amplified. Even though it's only a 4-node setup (as opposed to 5) the nodes are very pronounced and in the right spot for this system which is a great sign.

    This system has a 'softener' before the big boy hits. IMO the strength of the softener to clear the highs and make room for the big boy will determine how this one pans out. The stronger it is the more chance of that high NOT ridging in and giving us a belter of a system. I'm also a little worried about the pressure at the moment, still seems a bit high.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    9am has the tropical trough coming in to play.
    If you could get a meeting of the moist air from the north and cold from the south it could be game on. IMO the way it sits on GFS though, it's more of a rain event at the moment. I'd tend to go with EC at the moment [​IMG]
     
    #26 Claude Cat, May 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 24th

    i increasingly like the look of this... I'm not liking the look of what isn't following. Even with my glass half full perspective see little more than a dusting or two, 31st mayish and 7th junish (+/- 3 days lots of feel the vibe extrapolating) [​IMG] imo
     
    #27 Majikthise, May 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    EC perhaps has this slipping to the 25th

    [​IMG]

    IMO shows lots of rain pre cold change before cooling off

    [​IMG]

    Based on this afternoon's GFS & EC run I think the window is more the 24-26th of May.
     
    #28 Claude Cat, May 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    I am liking the position of the High SW of Perth and deeper than the last mini event. Lets hop it locks in place down there for 72 hours.
     
  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Latest EC run looking quite promising but still a long wait out:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #30 FourSquare04, May 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #31 FourSquare04, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 22nd - 25th

    Double quote for holy fart
    crossing fingers and toes
    [​IMG]
     
    #32 Donza, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Here's the rainfall off EC

    [​IMG]

    yr.no showing 16cm for Hotham and up to 30cm for Thredbo on the 25th.
    IMO the timing of the cold air moving in will make the difference between 15cm and 30cm.
     
    #33 Claude Cat, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Bears following discussion with interest.They said last system was fast moving and productive but with no followup.
    So they are seeing the possibility of road closure into Pretty Valley as a possibility later next week with predictions of 15cm falling!

    So looks like Bears & Ubiqu will have to get to Westons this weekend.

    Sometimes they struggle to complete jobs as we approach QB WE with the road closures at seasons barriers and the Vic Rds barriers etc.

    So followup snowfall after 23/26 event will prove interesting for the boys activities!!

    They enjoy looking out of windscreen as we drive( or attempt) through blizzard conditions reflecting on Forum members predictions & models!!
    [​IMG]
     
    #34 Ubiquitous Steve, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th



    [​IMG]

    imho
     
    #35 Mils, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  36. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    It shows you how desperate people get early in the season that they get so excited at a 240 hour forecast. By the middle of July we only get excited once we are inside 100 hours.
     
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Kaptain KillJoy
     
    #37 Stratus, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    ensemble my arse
    this has epic written in many languages
     
    #38 Donza, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    stay on topic.
     
  40. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    yes that high is in a super spot 2000kms west of perth with moisture in it
     
  41. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    I was excited 338 hrs out!

    IMO it hopefully will stall as it passes over the continent, surrounded by high pressure, last a bit longer than these previous pre-seasons.
     
    #41 Cubed, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    and the low SE of Tas

    feeling more confident about a weak follow up 5 ish days later going off the spaghetti.
     
    #42 Majikthise, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Afternoon EC for those that care.

    [​IMG]

    IMO could be slipping out further to the 26th.
    GFS is still not really feeling the love.
     
    #43 Claude Cat, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  44. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Looks good for the 25th imo.

    Also love the low SE of Tas.

    Last system had the Low originally come into play under SA well below the bottom of TAS on the 10th, it then skirted around Tas and redeveloped East of Tas on the 12th.

    The current models have the Low developing a lot further Nth and closer to the East coast of Tas. Add in the good position of the High and the moisture levels and I think this one has all the signs of a decent system.

    Still a long way out though, but it is definitely looking promising.
     
  45. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Your right CC, it looks to have pushed out to the 26th. The position of the High also looks more realistic in relation to the current trends.

    Just a gut feeling but I would not be surprised if this system dies right out and ends up causing a NSW ECL.
     
  46. Charlie

    Charlie Still the most depraved poster here Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Oh My God!
    We have a genuine Teddy Bears Picnic here!
    IMO this will turn into an epic dump!
    (Will this be allowed to remain now?)
     
    #46 Charlie, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    so it begins... the iron fist being forged into shape.

    [​IMG]
     
    #47 h2oskier, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Evening runs... Of all of them AXS seems to have the best scenario, and looking to be the most logical, although I think it's got too much cold air progged.

    GFS and EC are going for more of a cut-off over SA and even into WA, EC going for a huge tropical feed which I don't see as realistic, or helpful in snow terms.

    Given all the other signs I keep hearing about I'm going to guess that this will be another icy blast.
     
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    This is looking really good on the Spag Plot at the moment (IMO)

    We look to have an excellent fetch but the only thing i'm worried about is the leading High Pressure system keeping it dry and limiting snow falls.
     
    #49 Stratus, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    This is a two feet storm imo