Predictions: May 23rd - 27th (SiSFM Market - Emma)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 14, 2012.

  1. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    [​IMG]
     
    #51 luvthabumps, May 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    IMO the system is shouting potential, but this doesn't necessarily mean it's going to come off.
    This morning's runs EC is showing 40mm rain for the 25th, before turning to snow on the 26th. That in itself is ok for this time of year.
    While GFS is coming round to the idea, it's showing less precipitation, but the system running from the 25th to the 27th.
    As we're talking 240 hours out, there plenty of wiggle room for this to go one way or another.
     
  3. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    This should be rephrased as: This is 'potentially' a 2 feet storm Donz.....

    Have to agree with you CC, there is a lot of potential however it's going to come down to where the low forms, positioning etc
     
    #53 FourSquare04, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    nah I've seen enough.. I have it locked in my head
    the models will ebb and flow.. that inland trough will wig out GFS for 72 more hours...EC will slide around...i'm not looking at model specifcs..i'm looking at trends..
     
    #54 Donza, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    I dont see you buying your ass off on sisfm bro. Value is still a long way off 2 feet.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    stay on topic.
     
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Sorry. IMO. I should have added it up before. I assume it's OK to talk about SiSFM in this thread? Or does that need to be done in the SiSFM forum only?
     
    #57 Vermillion, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    I suggest we don't get too SiSFM focused here. As for what people are or are not betting on SiSFM I suggest that's definitely for the SiSFM forum.
     
  9. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    LWT still showing it peaking too early to be of epic proportions - IMO

    To call it now, I would say 20cm.
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    You don't epic LWT support for a "dump"
    look at that 72cm snowfall at perisher last june...
    It had duration, moisture...pressure and ok upper support
     
  11. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    ACCESS G shows a cold front rolling through on Wednesday/Thursday which could deliever something but the synoptic set up at 240 hours bears no relation whatsoever to the EC deterministic forecast.

    At +168 hours ACCESS shows now cut-off low pressure system, whereas both the EC and GFS show a low forming over Port Lincoln, off the coast of South Australia.
     
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    [​IMG]
     
    #62 Donza, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Not that this is the place for it but........................axs -g IMO is well below GFS EC , TWC and even the canadians at 120-180 hour forecasts...
    I don't even look
     
    #63 Donza, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    btw gfs has thrown in a ECL [​IMG]
    what where? shock..
     
    #64 Donza, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Surprise! So does EC

    [​IMG]

    GFS for same time

    [​IMG]
     
    #65 Claude Cat, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO GFS and EC are much more alike in thinking now. Although EC is showing far more precip.

    [​IMG] (for hotham)
     
    #66 Claude Cat, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    those precip numbers are almost donzaesque...
     
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    That EC prog is off the hook.....
    I don't want to jinx anything right now but i am getting more and more excited each model run!
     
  19. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    as long as I get off Buller by 6.00 a.m. 26/5 I'm happy as I must be back in Melbourne by 10.00 that morning - it can dump it's guts out after that. I'll be watching you guys closely over the next week.
     
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    It has to be posted in colour - pure snow porn IMO:

    [​IMG]
     
    #70 FourSquare04, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    That chart is not ideal...too cutoff...flow needs to be sour...southwest....not soueaster...that would be ideal if that high didnt ease underneath cutting off the 500hpa polar express
     
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 26th

    Have you looked at actual verification scores to base your decision?
     
    #72 Rush, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Funnily enough ACCESS showed the same thing from +240 00Z forecast earlier today. It's a huge east-coast low that spins up off the coast of Sydney at about +216 hours and tracks south. Funny that both the models show similar behaviour at so far out in the forecast.

    BTW Donza in the latest skill scores I've seen the EC and UK Met Office are the best. ACCESS-G is a close 3rd on average (occasionally it is the best). Then there is a gap to the GFS.
     
    #73 Rush, May 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  24. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    looking at that though is there enough cold air to feed it snow and not rain?
     
  25. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I agree with other comments about the position/shape of the H cell ^^^
    Just not allowing for the cold air to flow into the L....nice moisture though, reeeal noice.
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Who needs skill scores when you have mint and vibe?

    PS - PG you are biased in your opinion as you work for the BOM. But I appreciate your defiance, do you know a bloke called Benn0?

    IMO I look at GFS, then EC then AXS in that order, unless it's +72hrs or closer.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO looks terrific on EC today

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Plenty of moisture, only question is the temps. At this stage 1500m+ terrific.

    For Thredbo:

    [​IMG]

    And I look at EC first, (distant 2nd) GFS, then ACCESS (although good within 48 hours)
     
    #77 Claude Cat, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    But GFS still has quite a divergence on this one, IMO going this morning's GFS charts there's not a huge amount to get excited about.
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Good pressure on that EC chart.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    here's for 12 hours earlier.

    [​IMG]
     
    #80 Claude Cat, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I expect an ECL on the 3pm runs
    bahahahaha
     
    #81 Donza, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    OK cards on the table...EC has held a scenario at IMO a 80% consistency over model runs..
    AXS-G and GFS would be lucky to be 15%

    I've gone back at each model run on Ukweatheronline -via mod and compared scenarios.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Hence why I posted the spag plot for GFS yesterday. Swinging wildly all over the place (IMO)
     
    #83 Claude Cat, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    That spaghetti was not worthy of a dogs dinner
    I like this one
    [​IMG]
     
    #84 Donza, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    And yet it's a scenario typical of what GFS throws up. [​IMG]

    The ECL type scenario EC is suggesting isn't really ideal for snow... it will just mean a heck of a lot of rain, some in places it's not really needed.

    AXS has been consistent with cold temps but no moisture... I can't see that as being realistic IMO. If that sort of progression occurs there will be more than 10cm for the likes of Baw Baw, and around 10mm of rain across southern Vic.

    GFS keeps on changing... as of this morning's run that bubble sort of thing going on usually surprises precipitation wise in some regions.
     
    #85 ice_man, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    HARD. And peaking a little bit early but still very very minted.
     
    #86 Vermillion, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Actually Kristy I like peaking over SA...that usually means the Norwester has some support from behind
    I've found that 500hpa temps peaking right over SE australia are indicative of a system thats "drying out"

    also check out how consistent the control zulu and 12 zulu runs are
    Not much divergence there..
     
  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Latest EC run shows the system moving VERY quickly out into the tasman, but it's still there and has been for the last 5+ runs......

    GFS long range = very unreliable, don't know why you guys bother using it, EC is the bomb model
     
  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    S1 Skill scores for 96 hour forecasts days over the Australian verification region (approx 55 deg S, 100 deg E to 15S, 170E). Lower is better.
    Last 7 days.
    ec_gridded 13.463
    access-g_gridded 14.422
    uk_gridded 15.551
    us_gridded 17.394
    jma_gridded 19.881

    Last 30 days.
    ec_gridded 16.017
    uk_gridded 17.304
    access-g_gridded 17.791
    jma_gridded 19.511
    us_gridded 20.12

    But don't let facts get in the way of your fantasy land. I'm not going to attempt to overturn conventional wisdom on an anonymous internet forum.
     
  40. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Improvement to a couple of days ago I reckon.
     
    #90 Stratus, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    We're getting off topic - I'll permit PG's response - in context it was raised here. However please discuss in epic weather thread or start a new thread discussing the merits of each model.
     
    #91 Claude Cat, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I copied to epic thread
     
    #92 Donza, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS looks more interested on update .....
    weird
    00 update looks completely diff on wx vs expert online

    so weird
     
  44. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Thursday 24th chart (synoptic) looks a little tasty - how does this work, I will predict 20cms from this system based on having a stab at it now....

    [​IMG]
     
    #94 agentBM, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS gone wack and out there
    weird

    EC will define
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    EC still looks ok, IMO. Perhaps not as moist and low not as intense.

    [​IMG]

    But a lot colder.
    [​IMG]
     
    #96 Claude Cat, May 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Matching yr.no projections show about 10 to 15cm of snow and may favour southern resorts again. IMO
     
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I'm excited, I think I'll be suprised.
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I bought more shares long, I am confident on this one. AXS has this one OK, a bit too cold IMO and more like EC. I dont know what the **** is going on with GFS tonight.
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Gfs looks fairly epic