Predictions: May 23rd - 27th (SiSFM Market - Emma)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, May 14, 2012.

  1. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    60% chance of epic imo
    moisture looks like hanging a bit out to the west side of the alps on snow-forecast, hopefully doesn't miss the main resorts
    Selwyn should do well, season starter for them imo
     
  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS wow. I'd be sticking my neck out and calling season starter with 50cm across the main resorts.

    Cin - i think it's just taking the mountains into account showing more precipitation on the west side as expected from the westerlies.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS epic? 18z run is horrible, IMO

    [​IMG]

    EC has dried this one out too, less 10cm
     
    #103 Claude Cat, May 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    standard chopping and changing. Still needs 4 days to sourt itself out.
    I sense the pre season weather excitment is exceptionally strong with a few ppl this yr
     
  5. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Good inland rain for NSW, still May so no need to stress
    Dont need a season starter yet. Give it 3-4 weeks then we need a season starter IMO
     
    #105 Chowder11, May 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    [​IMG]
     
    #106 skiflat, May 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    9am

    [​IMG]
     
    #107 Claude Cat, May 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS and GASp charts seem great on paper. We're looking down the baz of 10-15cm across AUS resorts. Can't see why the contention, really.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    9am GFS suggests only a dusting, IMO.
    I'm just hoping it's an outlier the 9am GFS run sometimes throws up.
    "spaghetti" of the GFS ensemble suggest low confidence at 192 hours, so I do expect it to change.
     
  10. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    There seems to be a consensus on current runs that this one's just about dead in the water. The cold air is there but there's no moisture.

    Still think there's a surprise in store.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    3pm GFS run a bit stronger IMO, go figure. I should disregard the 9am run, it always seems to throw out weird projections.

    [​IMG]
     
    #111 Claude Cat, May 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    It does tell you something that GFS can go from 0mm at 9am and 6 hours later show 100m for the same spot.

    [​IMG]

    To be honest, I'm far from convinced with what GFS is cooking up right now IMO
     
    #112 Claude Cat, May 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Uppers are excellent, moisture isn't there.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    EC sticking at 10 - 15cm, IMO
     
  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    bom have snow wed night through to fri and odd snow shower saturday. It's moved forward again.
     
  16. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    FIZZZZZZZERRRRRRRR
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    stay on topic.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO GFS is tripping out. 9pm run has massive moisture, pity about the temps.
     
  19. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    If the High can sit SW of Perth like this map we could be in business.

    [​IMG]

    EC seems to have tidied up after a weird run during the day. Hoping the models come more into alignment over the next 48 hours.

    For mine as it stands now 10cm over most resorts. Hoping for an upgrade or 2. Only time will tell.
     
    #119 loweee, May 19, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Hmmm......latest EC run is not so promising......seems to be downgrading on the last few runs [​IMG]
     
    #120 FourSquare04, May 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO not sure about that yr.no (EC) shows 25cm for Thredbo, 20cm for Hotham
     
  22. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    The system seems to be weakening on the latest run(s) don't you think CC? Just from looking at them?

    Here's hoping that EC does its usual pick a system from 10+ days out, goes off it for a few runs, then comes back with avengeance at 72 hrs out!
     
  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #123 FourSquare04, May 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Less intense but still ok.
    Rainfall

    [​IMG]

    Temps

    [​IMG]
     
    #124 Claude Cat, May 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #125 Claude Cat, May 20, 2012
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  26. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    all I see is Ridging H [​IMG]
     
    #126 woggybot, May 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Yr.no / EC now has the system smashing us. On this mornings runs 30 to 40cm on Friday. IMO
     
  28. rodatthebay

    rodatthebay First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Good moisture but temps marginal at best on Friday. Looking more like a rain event.. IMO.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Hey... I think we need to enact a policy of listing where we are forecasting for..especially this event
    Each resort is going to have incredibly varied outcomes

    I'm quite excited...for Perisher
    Temps look ok for me for mine
    I agree with CC...Yr.no is showing a foot plus for Perisher area.
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I see 2 feet.






    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]

    Now that i've stopped laughing, I dont see much out of this one in terms of snow, looks like it could be a bit of rain and if you believe GFS a biblical event in Gippsland is on the cards. LWT has weakened too.

    End of the month looks very nice this morning though.
     
    #130 Vermillion, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Models look far better this morning

    GFS is on crack

    AXS-R and EC seem the only logical.
    spag chart for saturday
    look at divergence
    [​IMG]
     
    #131 Donza, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Too much trough involvement.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Thats bad because?
    Biggests snowfall for Perisher last year was off a trough.

    Youre buller..and its going to rain.
     
    #133 Donza, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    This system reminds me of Aug 5-8 last year. Great looking build up, but then the low gets cut off from the cold air supply and it all comes down to lingering cold pools. IF that happens, then I wouldn't want to be anywhere but Perisher IMO. Even then it's not ideal, because the one last year produced a lot more rain than snow.
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Yeah it sorta does and it sorta doesn't
    That high is slipping under like it did last year
     
    #135 Donza, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I know. That's why I said I dont like it.
     
    #136 Vermillion, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Once you get into this sort of territory you're just taking risks on snow/rain, which is definitely not ideal. This time of year it's not a concern.
     
    #137 Vermillion, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. homeless penguin

    homeless penguin First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    At least we are getting 'weather'...
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    EC charts from this morning.

    Plenty of moisture.

    [​IMG]

    Temps are marginal as stated above. "Floating" cold pool over southern NSW make me worry a little.
    [​IMG]
     
    #139 Claude Cat, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS shows the cold pool too. To be honest I don't think there is much between EC and GFS now.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #140 Claude Cat, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  41. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    so gumboots or skiboots for Buller on Friday CC? Gotta make sure I'm dressed appropriately.
     
  42. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Gumboots are always the safe bet at Buller.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    That's a really tough call. Interesting aspect is that the weather looks to be coming from the SE. Normally I'd be saying rain, but this might just help Buller. Temps are going to be real marginal. Either rain or soggy heavy snow (on EC it looks massive).

    [​IMG]
    (Buller)
     
    #143 Claude Cat, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  44. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I'm with Donza based on current GFS. Above 1600-1700m in the Snowies this has potential to start the base for the season. 30-50cm of wet slop (potentially more) followed by cold frosty nights to turn it into a solid mass of snow and ice.

    Thredbo is best lined up for such an event but with marginal temps only the top half would see decent snow. Perisher would not get snow quite as heavy but will more then make up for it with cover over most, if not all of the resort.

    This is where the extra couple of hundred in altitude comes in real handy.

    A very temperamental system no doubt though, very small changes to position/temps will have very large effects on the outcome.
     
  45. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    The Snow Forecast models are interesting - currently pegging Hotham at a whopping 324cm on the 26th....Perisher and Thredbo at 77cm !!! . Sigh - if only it were true.
     
  46. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    quorr...forecast porn...will change though

    [​IMG]
     
    #146 agentBM, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    ....and EC has done its usual trick just like I suspected it would (IE pick up the system from +240 hrs out, then go off it around +192 to +216, and now it's back on with around +96 to +120 to go)

    Interesting that The Frog is not liking this system at this stage.....

    http://www.snowatch.com.au/long-range-snow-forecast.php
     
    #147 FourSquare04, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  48. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    If you want to see another opinion - my alpine forecasts launched this morning:

    janesweather (http://www.janesweather.com/index.php/alpine)

    At this stage I feel it will be a tropical moisture feed running under a just cold enough cold pool, with a low forming over central VIC and moving eastwards. We will watch the moisture wrap around and fall heavy - as snow above about 1600 metres.
     
    #148 janesweather, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Sounds about the same as what Donz & BlueHue are predicting.....nice
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Welcome back Jane. Thanks for the professional opinion, good to have one to back-up our amateur projections!