Predictions: May 23rd - 27th (SiSFM Market - Emma)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 14, 2012.

  1. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    well i am convinced... This is on!
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Like

    Concur
     
    #152 Donza, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #153 CarveMan, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  4. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Given the current EC and GFS runs this system could be very deadly for Gippsland... never mind the snow, I'm seeing some serious flooding potential here. Many parts of the region are already mud.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Good point ice_man. 9am GFS centres the moisture more over the alps rather than over Gippsland. I'm still thinking 50-75mm is possible, especially with that SE aspect.
    I'm trying to recall, didn't we have a similar system in early June a few years back (IIRC falls of 150mm in Gippsland)? There was severe flooding then. 2007 I think.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    3pm GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #156 Claude Cat, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I think some sneaky snow for Victoria wednesday night into thursday is on the cards...
    Off the latest AXS-R charts
    the cold air has penetrated much further than on GFS
     
  8. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Some MOAR predictions for cms for Perisher please

    Would be appreciated IMO
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    If you keep writing moar i will consider it
     
    #159 Donza, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Stay on topic.
     
  11. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    BoM now have the low winding up off the Sth Coast as early as Fri night
     
  12. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    22cms at top of Thredbo....as a prediction because this is what the thread is called. There is divergence as seen here and there amongst the various journeys into weather prediction for our snowy time of the year - on average. I would call this one a little ambivolent for a system where it could skirt.......hmmm, or dump.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO the system looks better on GFS this afternoon. Freeze level perhaps 1400m.
     
  14. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Snow-forecast now have a total of 1cm for this system. How on earth do they go from 11cms in the morning to 1cm now. I suggest they are just a little wired.... and I ask how good are all these computer models if forecasting is so all over the place and often incorrect. I'll stick with more than snow-forecast!
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO I like GFS this afternoon.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Still looks wet for the Friday though.
     
    #165 Claude Cat, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I think this is looking better and better
    I'll take axs-r begiinning and gsf end please
    [​IMG]
    and that will be EC
     
    #166 Donza, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO EC looks colder than this morning, but not as much precip.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    yr.no confirms the above update 20cm for Hotham and 25cm for Thredbo.
     
    #167 Claude Cat, May 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  18. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    It looks as if as the inland low deepens and drops thru NSW, it will be fed some nice southerlies from the traling high. IMO, if the cold ppol associated with the low hangs tough and gets some help from a new injection of coldish air from the south, well geez, we all know what happens with deep lows, solid moisture and cold air.....Friday could be the bomb. Mid week next week could be interesting going of weather channel's (BOM) progged temps and precip.....
     
  19. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Any snow in the 3rd week of May is a bonus anyways...... If we get a few crisp nights after some flakeage, the guns will blaze and the base buliding will continue, so all positves really aye??
     
  20. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    SB, not if it washes it away with a follow up ECL
     
  21. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Pretty much everything is predicting a cold ending to the system IMO, so unless the snow is washed away literally as it falls, it should stay around as it freezes solid under the big high that follows. Hopefully there is enough of it to make it season opening though.
     
  22. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I if this holds out I wool be up there on the 27th

    Imho
     
  23. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    EC looking nice, 00z GFS looking epic in the tail end with 850 temps around -4... all starting to come good now.
     
  24. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Today's progression of sat loops has shown a LOT of promise with the incoming fronts from the Southern Ocean. I've noticed over the years that the first in a series of fronts always dips away (heads SE) the second generally gets more penetration in to the Alps areas and the 3rd (and subsequent, if we're lucky) fronts smack right in to the Alps.

    Tonights sat loop (11pm) appears promising; the synoptic chart is damn near perfect, with a strong 1030 H cell well west of WA but shaped as a slanted ellipse rather than last year's bl00dy flat, heavily ridging types...and on the ABC weather tonight, mention was made of a trough currently developing over central NSW which is timed to meet up with the incoming southern front.

    So we have cold and moisture present, with the timing and alignment of the key players at this stage looking to meet.

    But there is always the development of a H at the last minute to truly fark things up, as we have all seen many times.

    If the current models are correct and the NSW BOM predicting likewise (for late this week), then surely we have to be looking at 15cm minimum out of this system?

    I'm going for 15-20cm by Sunday night. IMO.
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    EC still on track with temps
    GFS backed off and wetter

    strange system

    wandering cold pools...its like picking lotto
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Concur Donza.
    EC has held firm (only the amount of precipitation has varied) while GFS can't make it's mind up. IMO shaping up as a 1600m+ system.
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    we have some weather coming thats for sure...
    NSW BOM say

    Friday 25 May

    Cloudy. Scattered showers. Scattered snow showers about the ranges above 1500 metres. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS back to a Gippsland killer. IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #178 Claude Cat, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Weatherchaser GFS snow forecast has for Hotham/Falls

    Thu 24/05/2012 26mm rain Min 4, Max 5 2500m
    Fri 25/05/2012 54mm rain, 2cm Snow Min -2, Max 6 1550m
    Sat 26/05/2012 8mm rain, 8cm Snow Min -2, Max 2 1550m
    Sun 27/05/2012 13cm Snow Min -8, Max -2 700m

    I believe this is for last nights 9pm GFS run.

    http://www.theweatherchaser.com/forecasts/alpine-snow/mt-hotham-falls-creek
     
    #179 Claude Cat, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  30. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I'd agree with that. I reckon rain on Fri/Sat for Victoria, with snow on Sunday/Monday.

    NSW may get away with it and get more white stuff than wet stuff.
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Jane says hello
    FRIDAY and SATURDAY

    Freezing level lowering to about 1500 metres on Friday morning, then 1200 metres overnight. Rising to 1600 metres on Saturday afternoon.

    Snow, heavy at times, with 30 to 50 cm possible.

    Breaking to snow showers on Saturday afternoon.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO going on the 9am GFS run, early Saturday isn't looking too bad.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    I'm not so convinced of the deluge on Friday (although it will be somewhat wet)
     
    #182 Claude Cat, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    [​IMG]

    Plenty of moisture on the latest access r
     
    #183 Alfred14, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Do not like
     
  35. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO

    Looks warm

    IMO
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    It kinda matches what EC says
    yet..
     
    #186 Donza, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Tails of lows that flip under and then back up are associated with high rainfall and higher temps.
     
  38. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Projections are also for a contraction of cold air to the south over the weekend. Double Whammy.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFS looks better this arvo
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Perhaps.
    IMO slightly cooler, but the bulk of the moisture now passing through bass strait.
    GFS still too variable for my liking to get a good feel for it.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    And so it begins.

    The weather nerds elsewhere are getting quite excited about this one. I suspect it will not be boring.
     
    #191 Claude Cat, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO EC remains consistent.
    yr.no interpolates as 25cm10cm for Thredbo and 30cm10cm for Hotham. Potentially more at Buller if it's cold enough.
     
    #192 Claude Cat, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  43. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Fark. I'm supposed to be working outdoors in Perisher all day Friday.

    Still could go either way at the moment (ie. rain/snow) but looking colder at the tail. Will pack the skis just in case.
     
  44. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Saw a certain "expert" in another forum saying this could be one of the biggest events in half a century.
    Whilst i dont quite see that happening as you said claude its going to be an interesting event.
    One things is for sure, somewhere is going to get alot of rain, and its gonna be windy as hell
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Where that bombing low develops will be the key to it. Understandably, the models are all a little different, we may well be guessing until we see the satellite pictures to confirm exactly what's going on.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Better hold on to your hat, it could be very windy.
     
    #196 Claude Cat, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    As someone pointed out earlier, looks a lot like a number of events from last year that left everyone frustrated. I don't read the models as well as many here, but 'the vibe' doesn't look good to me - too much north in it to start with, too much east in it to finish with.
     
  48. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    What does this event hold for Baw Baw/St Gwinear? Does anyone have any predictions on how this system will affect these areas?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO too warm for Baw Baw. I suspect this is a 1600m or above system.
    Potential to be very wet.
    Perhaps a little snow at the tail of the system.
     
  50. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Are you leaning more towards The Frog's opinion on what will unfold now CC?