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Predictions: May 23rd - 27th (SiSFM Market - Emma)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 14, 2012.

  1. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    CC, Jane has an interesting prediction:

    "FRIDAY and SATURDAY

    Freezing level lowering to about 1500 metres on Friday morning, then 1200 metres overnight. Rising to 1600 metres on Saturday afternoon.

    Snow, heavy at times, with 30 to 50 cm possible.

    Breaking to snow showers on Saturday afternoon."

    Do you feel it is unlikely that the freeze level will reach 1200m, this potientially low enough for Baw Baw?
     
  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    As CC says. Thats based on the model's prediction of the position of the low. A small change in position of the low could result in much cooler or warmer temperatures.

    Based on current models i'm going for lots of rain follwed by about 10cm of snow in the cold air saturday mornign then return to rain down low. Probably 10-20cm above 1600m at the main resorts at the end of it. Potentially lots more above 2000m.
     
    #202 Snow Blowey, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Hmm... ohh well I guess we've still a little time before season open. Here's hoping things pick up
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO models aren't showing a freeze level below 1400m, and even then when the moisture has passed.
    It is a difficult system to predict. Positioning of the low is critical. I'm still of the opinion that 1600m perhaps a bit more, should do ok. But I'm not supremely confident either. [​IMG]
     
    #204 Claude Cat, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    From tonight:

    AXS is not showing any sort of snow below 1600-1700m for this entire system/s. Showing lots of rain though. This scenario is a no-snow for Buller thing.
    GFS is much stronger and colder although it is touch and go until Sunday when a good SW airflow is established. This one has snow to 1200-1300m on Sunday night.
    LWT is flat and past us when it begins to amplify again.

    I dont really believe in these wandering cold pools, even though they have pulled it off in the past. They are just too unpredictable and too often produce only rain, even if the pool is only a couple hundred km off the alps.
     
  6. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I just can't get even remotely excited about any kind of system that shows ridging high pressure to the SW of a cut off low. same goes with troughs over the Kimberleys. Tropical feeds are moar trouble than they are worth.

    I like my colds coming express from Antarctica thanks.
     
  7. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    BoM for West and South Gippsland are saying snow down to 1300 metres on Saturday... I can't see it being that cold. But definitely seeing a lot of wet for most of Gippsland.
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Dont you complain! I remember a couple of years back you would have killed for rain and damp like this [​IMG]
     
    #208 Vermillion, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  9. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    That was me Wardy.
    I'm like you, I'm certainly no model reader either - prefer old school sat loops and synoptics [​IMG]

    Speaking of which, by my count, we're up to front no. 3 approaching the mainland and looking as being a good contender for changing the status quo of the H over the central/eastern part of the continent. From tonight's sat loop, it's clear how the first 2 fronts of late got a serious dose of heading SE...which sucks. But at the same time, it looks like the H over NSW has weakened and the H west of WA is still perfectly positioned and strengthening. You can also see another embedded front in the system south of SA charging north.

    For me, that's the money maker! The first 3 fronts did the set-up work, this is the payoff. If it hooks up with the developing trough over NSW.....jackpot [​IMG]

    IMO.
     
    #209 woggybot, May 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    looks awful wet to me .If the low settles it self further south then showing on todays runs it should snow. Its one of those lows the bom have trouble with and hate predicting so its a bob each way...We will get what were given,
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Still looks ok for mine

    Its EC vs GFS scenario...
    re the wandering cold pool
    I'm inclined to go with EC..its held this prediction for near on 7 days
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I cant get into the '2 feet' predictions for this one this morning. Well, not below 1900m anyway which rules out AUS apart from Perisher. Things I dont likle:

    - LWT is nothing, not helping at all
    - Too much tropical/trough influence, too warm moisture
    - Iffy cold pool (AXS not predicting a cold pool at all)
    - Hard ridging high coming in behind this one, no sustained SW flow

    There will certainly be 100mm+ in moisture falling, perhaps if it was falling above 2000-2200m we would be laughing, but it's jus too warm for my liking.
     
  13. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    AXS still seems certain that the cold pool isn't going anywhere near the slopes which would produce a rainout while GFS has it sitting in pretty much the perfect position from mid Friday onwards (with a bit of warming over Saturday until the next front comes through) IMO. EC seems to be thinking along the same lines as GFS, with that initial cold surge better placed and bigger. I must say, I'm leaning towards EC and GFS on this one as that first front seems to be a little too strong to dissipate as fast as AXS shows. AND so IMO, 30cm+ for Perisher/Thredbo, maybe more if we're lucky, but if AXS is right, all were getting is a sloppy dusting at the best.

    [Interestingly, Frog is predicting snow down to 1300m on Friday, indicating a cold pool in the right position quite early on but only 2-6cm. Not sure if that means most of it will fall as rain in the morning but looking at the charts, it seems like there are large amounts of moisture around, albeit coming from the north so the southern resorts might miss out on the early stuff, explaining the lower snow figure but colder temps on Friday.]
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    GFrogS is the best looking model in terms of snow i'll agree on that. But according to PG AXS is the 'one' for us.
     
  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Its funny that verm because this morning's BOM forecast certainly isn't based on the AXS charts.
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    But SB not only is AXS an exceptional model it is dissected every day by the best forecasters this country has to offer.

    OK maybe they dissect it and decide it's total crap and use a proven model for their predictions instead, but still.
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    This

    I'm still seeing some decent snow for Perisher and the main range...
    Timing will be the key.. The coldest air arrives around friday night...then again sunday , yet it will be drier then
    If the snowlevel is around 1500 and we get a good injection of NW moisture for Perisher it will be game on..
     
    #217 Donza, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Stay on topic.
     
  19. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I like WZ. I'll go as far as their summary and that points to a period of 20-40mm at CP with snow forecast during Saturday.
     
  20. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I still feel there's good potential in this - (from sat loop) the southern L is positioned much further north than at any time this week and tracking well towards the Alps, plus the embedded front to come. H still positioned well off SW WA as of this morning. NSW BOM still keen too

    And even if it does rain, there's nothing to wash away!

    I'm keeping an eye on temps and wind direction in Adelaide and Mount William too
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO the moisture levels are hard to pick. GFS has been increasingly MOARish while EC has been heading the other way. From this morning's GFS run, it seems it will be done by Sunday morning.

    [​IMG]

    Freeze levels for Saturday morning
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #221 Claude Cat, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Looks like BoM are having a little trouble predicting the track of the Low for Thursday.

    Looking at the below chart, the initial progression of the first Low is pure snow porn as the low surges up near the Vic/SA border and then drifts SE across Tas which would usually mean a solid SW air and moisture feed over Vic.

    The problem with this system is that the trailing high ridges in behind the first low and front which kills the low and cuts off the cold air feed. We then see a Cutoff Low form over the central Vic/NSW Border which is being fed by the tropics.

    There are a couple of things that will swing this one either way.
    - The trailing high ridging to the SE after the first low. In an ideal world, this wont happen but if it does, its timing could make all the difference. If it happens fast, it will cutoff the cold air feed too quickly which will ruin the following cutoff system. However, If it happens slowly, we could get a decent pool of cold air over Vic which will give the following Cutoff a solid cold pool to work with which will deliver some good snow
    - The second major thing is obviously the positioning of the cutoff. The below model has it a bit too far to the Nth for any good snow below 1800 IMO but if the low forms a little further south, then it could be game on for all major resorts.

    Either way, Wednesday to Friday will be a flip of the coin, but Saturday is looking very nice as we have a solid SW feed over the Alps with a nice follow up front and low moving in.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #222 Katanga, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Ummmmmmm ... Wet.......

    This could be VERY interesting!

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    #223 skiflat, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO 1600m+ system. [​IMG]
    I know, I've said it before.

    850hPa temps for early Saturday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #224 Claude Cat, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Usually tropical moisture + cold air = awesomeness (e.g. mid-August 2010 mega-dump).

    However, this system can probably be classified under the Maxwell Smart category : 'Missed it by that much'.
     
  26. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I hope you're right CC [​IMG] 1600m will be a great kick start for the major resorts.

    I think it is safe to say that we should see some big totals for the NSW Main Range IMO so the cross country boys should be happy
     
    #226 Katanga, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO 1600m is good for NSW, but not much chop for Victoria.
    Even so, I suspect a rain / snow mix below 1800m.
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Remember the June Perisher system last season?
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Refresh our memories. IIRC was great over 1800m?
     
  30. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Its a pitty the leading high has hung around over Nth NSW for so long otherwise we could have been looking at one of these

    [​IMG]
     
    #230 Katanga, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  31. wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    imo, 12-17cm by saturday morn to be mostly washed away until turning to snow again at around midnight saturday with a total of 15-20cms left on the ground monday morning. Not based on anything except that there was a bogong moth on my deck this morning.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    1700- northerly snow...
     
    #232 Donza, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    that Moth is it! There is snow a comin'....my prediction in keeping with topic. I once lived on captains Flat Rd east of Queanbeyan on hundreds of acres and one night in May 2002 before a big fall, the screens (fly) were covered in the B moths. The entire thing was moving covered in the moths who were beckoned to our only lights in the otherwise darkened skies. Those moths are a weather instrument.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Stay on topic.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

     
    #235 Claude Cat, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Yeah cheers
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    IMO it does look a tad cooler on the 3pm run. But not that different to the AXR run from earlier today.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    850 temps and size of cold pool look better
     
    #238 Donza, May 23, 2012
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    3pm UKMet run has this.

    First band of precipitation (Thursday midnight) would seem to be rain (temps are 850hPa,
    (totals in inches)
    [​IMG]

    But cools down by midday Friday

    [​IMG]
     
    #239 Claude Cat, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    #240 Katanga, May 23, 2012
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I assume you mean this map?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Which is basically what UKmet is showing above, although it has the moisture and colder air arriving a little earlier.

    IMO
     
    #241 Claude Cat, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    #242 Katanga, May 23, 2012
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    yr.no & EC afternoon update through.
    yr still reasonably bullish - 15cm for Hotham & Thredbo.
    EC doesn't have anywhere near the same amount of moisture predicted as GFS or AXS for the alps (although it's got a fair bit for Gippsland).
    IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #243 Claude Cat, May 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Interesting.....the NSW BOM updated snowy mtns forecast has upped the ante and gone for freezing levels around 1000m+ for Friday & half of Saturday rising to 1500m Saturday afternoon......before that though, they're calling it all liquid precipitation......still I am pleasantly surprised with their optimistic outlook, funnily enough it seems quite similar to Jane's update from earlier today.....

    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/snowy.shtml
     
    #244 FourSquare04, May 23, 2012
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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Yeah.

    I like it because its May and I will be surfing anyway, so no stress.

    Secondly, there is phenomenal amount of polar activity going on around the 65 to 45 degree that should feed lots of upper level cold air into the cutoff low, and the days are getting very short, so there is not much solar energy at 37 degrees at the moment. I think it’s on for sure. Lots of wet sticky snow is good for an early based feeding into early June in the High Country, followed up by more activity.

    Yeah
     
  46. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    I must say, I'm liking the look of the arvo AXS-G, its really come a lot closer to the GFS line of thinking with a much bigger cold pool centered over the alps than it was predicting before with the colder air staying around (cold enough for 1600m anyway) from friday arvo. Plus it's also got a ton of moisture prog'd, I'm feeling a lot better now that it's come into line with the others, Perisher is gonna do well out of this IMO.
     
  47. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    Snowing summit Mt Howitt
     
  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    ....and The Frog is now predicting snow on Friday and Saturday
     
  49. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    The BoM is still quite bullish, now saying snow to 1100 metres from Friday to Sunday for Gippsland. I can see the cold pool but not thinking quite as low as 1100...
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Re: Predictions: May 23rd - 27th

    AXS is thinking along those lines this morning ice_man. Personally I cant see much in VIC below 1500m for this system. Main range will have >50cms after this has passed. As the low spins to the SE it will warm but most of the moisture should have cleared the Main Range allowing it to keep it's snowfall, not the same story for VIC IMO, there is a good chance of significant warm wet totals once the snow turns back to rain. Funny enough GFrogS has backed off on the cold pool and depth of this low, whilst AXS has pumped it up a little bit.

    Sit tight, it's already happening in Adelaide, how that turns out will be a good indication of how this is going to go for the alps.