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Predictions Predictions: September 13th-17th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by sbm, Sep 8, 2015.

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  1. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Let's hope spring keeps on trucking all the way to the october long weekend. This coming system looks decent for the Main Range. I suggest 10-20cm above the treeline.

    GFS looking nice.

    [​IMG]

    ACCESS warmer and earlier?

    [​IMG]
     
    CarveMan likes this.
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Was looking wet on this morning's EC run, after looking pretty good for a few days.
    IMO
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Mid to late september
    dart board territory.
    Models go on LSD this time of year.
     
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  4. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS love.

    R##n 14th. Then 20-25cm 15th-17th, maybe more. Imo. Just in time for my arrival.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any thoughts on the following weekend (19-20)?
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nothing much showing up on GFS. Beyond the EC 10 range, but as it's projected, nothing much would be expected.

    IMO
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    14/15 looking fairly weak on EC this afternoon.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    IMO a bit of prefrontal, with 5-10cm following - as it currently stands.
     
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  8. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pls tell me you see a massive 1040 high for that weekend and a couple of days either side ;)
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just kind of nothing, really.

    [​IMG]

    EC for Friday
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have had to postpone my plans this week , life getting in the way of my life , so now riding this one home with Astro.
    Spag looks OK to me , cold pool etc , but I've got that wrong before.
    AXS modelling also favourable but this far out , and as Donza says its a dartboard so disregard for now.
    Tropopause theta also has recorded a couple of potential nodes 8 & 10 o'clock , I'm a little unsure of exact timing there.
    edit sorry maybe more bbq than prediction.
     
    #10 nfip, Sep 9, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2015
  11. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Flip flop...
     
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  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looks OK to me
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of a downgrade on 15th - 17th. So probably more like CC's figures of 10-12cm.

    But 14th looks better alignment of cold pool and precip. So I still think it could be a 20cm+ system.

    Oh BTW. AXS-G seems to confirm. Cant be bothered to post.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #13 Astro66, Sep 9, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2015
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  14. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Based on this afternoon's 4 dayer, the weather and wind looks pretty good for this weekend, no worries about camping out saturday or sunday night. Bailing monday morning sounds like a good idea though.

    We'll hopefully just get an overnight freeze on saturday night, at least higher up. The corn snow from now through to sunday will be primo.

    No overnight freeze on sunday night. Monday could be a day to watch the wet & glide avalanche risk.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah agree. Should be a cracker this weekend.
     
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  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Who cares :cry:
     
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  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You guys are making me laugh.
    You are trying to dartboard a system at this time of year?
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS is a little better today
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I'm not entirely convinced about this system at this stage, though.
     
  19. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I LEARNED IT FROM WATCHING YOU!!
     
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  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No , I struggle at best of times.
    Have learned never to put any faith in the models.
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ha....
    Lesson one.... change of seasons = huge variability in models.
    Lesson two... do not look further than 72 hours at this time of year (at models for a result)
    Lesson three... you need 4 consecutive model runs of consistency of a result to forecast a result.
    Lesson four... as @The Plowking 4 day chart. In my mind the last panel of the 4 dayer looks tasty. Well positioned high ..nice fronts and interior of Australia trough.... all these ingredients are good.
     
  22. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    agreed on 4 dayer, good fat high for some touring maybe on weekend
     
  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much to suggest it all sliding I agree IMO
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Lows with lows above them don't slide
     
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  25. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    His beard would be ned kelly by now
     
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  27. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feather Sat if yr interested.
     
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  28. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    thanks.....maybe just maybe, @Boodwah......you go in from diamantina hut / hotham end or bung or north end?
     
    #28 mr, Sep 9, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2015
  29. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterday BOM had snow forecast for Thredbo on Monday and Tuesday (around 7cm each day) and this afternoon they have changed Monday to r**n and Tuesday to 3 cm
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Geez, looks good.
    Baby imminent any day.
    This season's been a write off for me. 2.5 hrs at BawBaw....was enough there!
    Certainly is nice not having had any real rain events this season, especially considering the average depth across the board (excepting Buller!)
    On a brighter note got my certificate of Occupancy yesterday.
    Much snow next season hopefully.
    Probably some prefrontal but nice back end
     
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  31. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    CofO is great. yes feeling like we may get a reasonable spring, looking good for 4 or 5 days at hotham with the kids first weekend school holidays. no wash outs yet, and some good freezes coming up. from memory last year the snowpack just sogged out in spring, no good freezes
     
  32. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Razorback from Diamantina, return day trip. Alpine start - there's a bloke out from Wyoming who wants to do it.
     
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  33. TIA_Macca

    TIA_Macca Hard Yards

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    3 of us heading out to feathertop early friday morning for 2 nights .might see some of you out there
    Sorry for being off topic
     
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  34. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's the cool boarders beanie on him that I worry about :)

    edit: damn I got chastised
     
    #34 Nidecker, Sep 9, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2015
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like a rain event on EC this evening
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO it will be good ...15-16th on
    The High anchored SW of Perth is perfect
     
  38. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure is borderline. Looks dryer 15-16th imo.
     
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  39. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    OT - I'll give you a definitive prediction for Sept 17th.

    I'll be eating ceviché in Ecuador :D

    #dreamingofalaska
     
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  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday has the moisture & could go either way but improving.
    Tuesday nice SW feed of cool / cold air ?
    Uppers are cold but 850 borderline.
    IMO
    #middleofseptember
     
  41. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong model divergence this morning eh
    Winning GFS
    Not so much AXS
    Will watch this with interest (maybe) from Plaza Major in Madrid next week
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Weakening and warming on EC
    IMO

    Not expecting anything much out of this now.
     
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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    and afterwards it's ridge for dayz.

    might dust the creams off and turn up to pre season training...
     
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  44. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winning.
     
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  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    All the high pressure!
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    rain nor snow? i just dont want a washout
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    On EC it's looking at 5-10mm rain at worst, but seems to be decreasing by the run. IMO
     
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  48. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like most outlooks going off it completely for the Tuesday and maybe a little rain on the Monday.
     
  49. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok. My take from GFS and AXS charts.

    14th : Prefrontal rain late in day. Uppers ok, but not cold. 850's look warm.
    15th : Rain turning to snow as uppers remain ok. But 850's cool.
    16th onwards : Sporadic flurries.

    Net gain 8-10cm IMO.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks average on EC
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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