Predictions Predictions: September 7-9th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Sep 1, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has been showing a system for this period IMO

    [​IMG]

    GFS not quite running with it yet
    [​IMG]

    Better than nothing, I guess.
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Still there this morning. Bit of a way out at this stage, looks like a standard front IMO. Cold enough, 10-20cm in most resorts. We'll take it, especially this time of the season. :)
     
  4. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Maybe I should go check it out.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perfect spring system.
     
  6. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    It's spring now, have some of the forecasters gone 'meh!'?
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO still looking good for 10-20cm.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Another cutoff.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm not reading it that way. Just a more normal frontal system, but not that strong.
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  11. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Like this I reckon, based on the BOM 4 Day. And a kinky trough

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS this afternoon
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I like the SW feed and colder temps and hopefully NW winds. Not sure when it will clear.

    Today was all about the western and north faces getting a bit of spring coat up high.
     
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  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Has room to improve with that inland trough.
    I might sneak down there next wednesday on if my inlaws come back to babysit.
     
  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thinking same ,wednesday night for cupple days inbounds & cupple bc .
    Lookimg a bit too westerly ^^^ for now....
    AXS showing wandering cold pool for these dates.
     
  16. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    Looks like a handy september for thredders and perisher. . Fair base up high.
     
  17. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Access-R very like. Could be 20-30cm Sunday night into Monday. Damn! Last minute job came in yesterday for Monday - Tuesday
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  19. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If anything is going to blow @ Gerg SC call out of the water, this is it...if his call survives this he deservedly walks away with honours.... again.
     
  20. weerab

    weerab One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    how does it look for Vic?
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks good IMO.
    This one should favour the south, for a change.
     
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  22. weerab

    weerab One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    sure hope so. Thanks
     
  23. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    System does look interesting. Unfortunately, I told my wife I would take her down the coast this week. However, she wants to go to doctor on Monday. Could be a brief window of opportunity. Weerab, how are you placed?
     
  24. weerab

    weerab One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have an appointment on Monday 7th. I was keen to go Stirling but at this stage there is about a 3km walk to snow unless it snows again.

    so the new plan is to go to Mt Beauty on Tuesday and camp in the caravan park and drive up for a couple of day trips. also planning to take chainsaw and maybe do some pruning at our block.

    however, still very flexible depending on snowfall in next few days but it just seems too warm to me. figure that there will still be some snow at BHP for a few more weeks!
     
    #24 weerab, Sep 4, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2015
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr.no have backed off on the higher temps for next weekend. while BOM still going for 10 at PV later next week/end - but yr.no is focecasting several degrees lower. Could be a very short september if these temps are the new norm coming out of this next "clipper" event.
     
  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't remember a September without at least a few warm days ever.
    Usually get the same in August.
    No news here 're warm days.

    Loving the little hook ob this one.
    Short but sweet. Easy 20 for mine in vic
     
  27. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Access R better again this morning IMO. 30+ Thredbo
     
  28. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Yeah getting at least one or two days close to 10 degrees at the resorts is completely normal for September.

    Agree, this is looking short, sharp and cold enough. 10-20cm, although looks like drizzle afterwards might ruin the party for the southern resorts.
     
  29. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    I think I might go for a drive up into it.
     
  30. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What was Gerg's call on this system? I can't seem to see it in this thread (must be going blind?)
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didn't post I think.

    Anyway, this is a really nice little system.
     
  32. weerab

    weerab One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    any idea what Mt Stirling in Vic might get? I want to go up next week but not prepared to walk 2 or 3km in ski boots to access skiable snow.

    I went up last year when they were declaring 2km walk to the snow when it was more like 3km and patchy at that!
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stirling is kind of like Buller right?
    I'd say 10-15cm IMO
     
  34. weerab

    weerab One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stirling is right next door to Buller not sure of distance or height difference. Main problem is that the car park is very low, normally below snow line.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, I know where it is, I wonder if it suffers from the dreaded westerlies like buller.
     
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Exactly same
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Temps look relatively cold, but there's a fair bit of westerly involved, so that worries me a bit for Buller & Stirling.
     
  38. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Fwiw: In spring conditions one can often decrease walking distance/increase skiable snow by going up Baldy Trail, upper Baldy then heading up to Wombats. While the former two (<1400m are likely to be snowless) the latter has mostly a southern aspect which protest the Sept cover quite well. Then chuck right and head up Stirling trail from about 1550m (at or just above clearing with tepees).

    Mind you this only works if the cover up top in trees is fairly good (ie 40-50cm+), below which even Wombats might struggle. Try it - worked for me a no. Of times!
    (SG)
     
  39. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Oops sorry veering away from predictions. However as I type from Hotham I predict Orchard will hut tomorrow, and while main areas are holding up for now, they'll struggle if we get a major rain front or a week of warm 'footy finals' sunshine. Perhaps 2 more weeks?
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a big 4 system I reckon.
    Buller should get some in the middle turning to mizzle
     
  41. Brench

    Brench Hard Yards

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    Heading to Buller tomorrow with Kids ski racing

    Even with the westerly do you you guys still think there is still 10-15cm in this system?

    Looks to favor Vic resorts.
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon there is, but best surface condition s be during the snowfall (low vis) rather than either side of it at Buller.
     
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  43. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looking good for at least 10-15cm for Perisher and Thredbo mid to upper mountain.

    I recall a similar style of system back in September 2004 delivering some great spring riding
     
  44. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    big fat blob looks like its coming with cold!
     
  45. Brench

    Brench Hard Yards

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    Thanks for the heads up.

    Any top up is a bonus.

    Early Sept 2013 in Buller was a trip via Tumut as there had been a rockslide between Thredbo and Khancoban.

    Moths were bursting on the windscreen from Mansfield on the way up and it was 17c when we arrived at the carpark.

    They built moguls out of wheel barrows of snow turned upside down and the ski X course was like a wetnwild ride with snow.

    Kids had a ball regardless.

    The village atmosphere with all the bars and restaurants is really cool.
     
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great place if 500m higher.
     
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  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Applies for most of Oz !
    My home base in the mountains sits at 1600.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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