NSW/ACT Rain Event - July 25-29, 2020

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Steve777, Jul 23, 2020.

  1. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    570
    Likes Received:
    1,295
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    This event has already started in Queensland.

    The models are agreed that a trough, now off the Queensland coast, will depeen and develop Southwards. It is likely to spawn a low off the Northern NSW coast early next week. After that the models diverge. Access moves it further South and it hangs around for a while. GFS and EC move it further South and then it's followed by another.

    Sydney’s forecast rainfall for the event is 30-75 mm, Newcastle 25-85 mm. It looks like mostly a coastal event, with just minor ”spillage” over the Divide. It will be mild to warm for this time of year. Snow is not on the menu.

    Here’s this morning’s forecast rainfall to next Thursday July 30, from the BOM:

     
    POW_hungry, Donzah, Homer and 2 others like this.
  2. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,788
    Likes Received:
    13,248
    Location:
    Canberra
    We could do with a decent drop in Canberra .....
     
    Belly likes this.
  3. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    243
    Likes Received:
    567
    Location:
    Bowral, NSW
    Some real tightening of the low on this morning's Access run. Not supported by EC or GFS though
     
    stormy3, AshestoAshes and Steve777 like this.
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    39,704
    Likes Received:
    41,464
    Location:
    woonona
    Reminds me of the last low and its affects on coastal erosion.
     
    nfip and AshestoAshes like this.
  5. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    283
    Likes Received:
    483
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    Gee whiz about to end up on our first above average July since 2016, been a long time coming. Always thinking of those not so fortunate, pray for those to see some timely rain. The last 3 July's have seen a total of 28mms.
     
  6. Mogul

    Mogul One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2004
    Messages:
    3,448
    Likes Received:
    315
    Location:
    Sydney
    Narrabeen Lake has been opened up as a precaution.
     
  7. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    20,839
    Likes Received:
    14,245
    Location:
    Top drawer
    A little kiss for the catchments, too.
     
  8. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    BOM has upped the ante for Sydney for Sunday 40-60 mm's now forecast.
    I haven't checked other parts of the coast yet.
     
  9. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Newcastle - 20 - 35 mms
    Albion Park - 50 80 mms
    Wollongong - 45 70 mms

    Seems to be a Metro/Illawarra bullseye for Sunday. Rain tapers off further north and south of those regions.

    Edit:

    Coffs Harbour Saturday 25 - 40 mm's Sunday 20 - 60 mm's.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  10. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    17,048
    Likes Received:
    31,619
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    Upper BMs upgraded to 30-45 mm for Sunday
     
    Majikthise likes this.
  11. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    9,192
    Likes Received:
    16,343
    Awesome. Visiting Sydney Sunday - Monday. Looking forward to the drive :rolleyes:
     
    nfip and Untele-whippet like this.
  12. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,580
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Will be over in Oberon Sat/Sun/Monday.
     
  13. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    17,048
    Likes Received:
    31,619
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    Gumboots
     
    SnowBound likes this.
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    39,704
    Likes Received:
    41,464
    Location:
    woonona
    Looks too southerly IMO for heavy rain.
    Perhaps a left mover storm onshore?
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  15. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Southerly is ok for the our part of the coast.
    Of course, south easterly is better.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,463
    Likes Received:
    28,865
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Sunday night looks the 'meat and potatoes' for the Sydney Coast IMO.
    Looking solid ahead of the Southerly shift.
     
  17. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    570
    Likes Received:
    1,295
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    It’s foggy here this morning, which is unusual. The fog rolled in during the last half hour or so. Webcams show thick fog on the Harbour.

    Fog in Sydney normally means a sunny day on the way, but the satellite shows mid level cloud moving in from the North, with showers forecast for this afternoon.

    The forecast also says chance of a thunderstorm late this morning, i.e. in 3-4 hours’ time. We’ll see.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,637
    Likes Received:
    23,303
    Location:
    South Co
    lock it in Eddie.
    and shorten the sails.....
    [​IMG]
     
    stormy3, Steve777 and Belly like this.
  19. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Certainly very foggy here as well Steve. Looks Sydney wide as well.
    Currently just 8.5 deg's. If we don't see much sun today I can't seed the forecast max's being reached.
     
    Steve777 and POW_hungry like this.
  20. stormy3

    stormy3 Addicted

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    108
    Likes Received:
    102
    Location:
    Ellalong.10kms sw of Cessnock Hunter Valley nsw.
    I am getting excited about this low moving down from the north ,I hope the Hunter where I am inland from Newcastle gets a heavy drop.I will be watching this one.love these events.
     
    nfip and AshestoAshes like this.
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,463
    Likes Received:
    28,865
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Spitting ain here in Randwick ATM.
     
  22. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Getting very dark here in Castle Hill. Some big, dark cu's about. Radar starting to fill in so the onset of rain is near.
    There was enough sun around this morning to get the max's near enough to forecast (generally a degree or so below).
    Fog didn't clear till after 11 am which kept watching the boy at soccer this morning feeling decidedly cold.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  23. Ben K

    Ben K Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    33
    Likes Received:
    36
    Location:
    Central Coast, NSW
    Feels like the calm before the storm here.
     
  24. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    You could be right.
    Sydney OH now forecast 58 - 135 mm's next 3 days.

    [​IMG]
     
    Steve777 likes this.
  25. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,580
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Beautiful day up here in the BMs. Can’t complain...

    EDIT: Doh! Wrong thread. On topic - awaiting the impending rain...
     
  26. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    570
    Likes Received:
    1,295
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    Wedding Cake Island near Coogee at about 3:00 PM this afternoon:

    [​IMG]

    The ocean is relatively calm, but that will change in the next few days. Light showers passed overhead shortly after this was taken.
     
  27. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Really need that proposed Central West radar. Near Wellington wasn't it?
    There's been some reasonable falls through the Central West Slopes and Plains today.
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,637
    Likes Received:
    23,303
    Location:
    South Co
    first spots down here Ulladulla last half hour or so....
     
  29. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    283
    Likes Received:
    483
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    1.8mms thus far, EC throwing the hammer down a widespread 250+mm focusing on Kangaroo Valley. BOM is keeping it steady though, we'll see though I think 150+mm in those said regions are a fair shout at this point.
     
    POW_hungry, Sideny, Longys and 3 others like this.
  30. malas1

    malas1 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2015
    Messages:
    153
    Likes Received:
    220
    Raining in the Adaminaby area
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  31. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    27,450
    Likes Received:
    12,780
    Those sand dune houses at Wamberal may be in for another whack
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  32. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    335
    Likes Received:
    717
    Location:
    Maragle, NSW; 948 m AMSL; 35° 51’ 30.06” S
    6.6° C and steady rain here—I don't reckon it'll reach the forecast 12° C today.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  33. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    64,678
    Likes Received:
    42,070
    Location:
    Mountains
    Slow steady rain on Jindy North Shore.
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    39,704
    Likes Received:
    41,464
    Location:
    woonona
    But it's the councils fault...!
     
  35. teleroo

    teleroo Lincoln Turns at the Pass Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    1,045
    Likes Received:
    2,399
    Location:
    Illawarra
    20 mm to 9 am for Otford, NSW
     
  36. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    570
    Likes Received:
    1,295
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    There was widespread rain / showers across NSW to 9:00 this morning. Heaviest falls were on the far North Coast with many 50mm+. The Central West had a number of falls 25 mm+, with 36 mm at Cowra.

    Just modest falls in Sydney so far, around 5 mm give or take.

    Here, it’s solid overcast, light showers and 14°. There’s a big blob of rain moving in from the North so rain totals should start to pick up soon.
     
    Adaminaby Angler likes this.
  37. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    27,450
    Likes Received:
    12,780


    Not often you see rain extending from Wison's Prom to Gympie
     
  38. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,580
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Fogged in, raining, tin roof, fire, 7 degrees - perfect.

    (near Oberon).
     
  39. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    9,110
    Likes Received:
    4,834
    Location:
    Monaro
    50mm at Moruya airport up until 9am and another 5 or so since. Good drop ;)
     
    nfip likes this.
  40. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2014
    Messages:
    4,058
    Likes Received:
    6,166
    Location:
    In the woods
    Winter mix at Charlotte Pass with not enough winter. Needs to be a couple of degrees cooler.
     
  41. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    283
    Likes Received:
    483
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    Flood watch out, SWW doesn't really reflect this though it only gives a look in for Damaging winds and Surf for the coastal fringe.
     
    MisterMxyzptlk likes this.
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,637
    Likes Received:
    23,303
    Location:
    South Co
    yeah we've had about the same.
    getting royally hosed at times.
    I gotta drive up to Cbr in it this arvo, will be very steady as she goes .
     
    Belly and Kletterer like this.
  43. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,637
    Likes Received:
    23,303
    Location:
    South Co
    sounds familiar ! LOL
     
  44. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2003
    Messages:
    2,435
    Likes Received:
    3,232
    Location:
    Yackandandah NE Victoria
    The low is trying to bust in and rain in NE Vic .
    Falls wet + in the positives = great.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,463
    Likes Received:
    28,865
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Captains Flat must be green as Ireland right now.
     
  46. Sideny

    Sideny Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2019
    Messages:
    92
    Likes Received:
    98
    Location:
    South-Western Sydney
    Surely we need some sort of SWW for heavy rain. Check out those rainfall rates at Williamtown 30mms in 30 mins and counting.
     
    Homer likes this.
  47. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    13,867
    Likes Received:
    16,804
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    60mm here in Glenbrook thus far. Judging by the radar and the positioning of the low we should easily surpass 100mm to midnight.
     
    stormy3 and Homer like this.
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,463
    Likes Received:
    28,865
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Today:
    [​IMG]

    Tomorrow as the southern flank moves South:
    [​IMG]
     
    nfip, Steve777, stormy3 and 2 others like this.
  49. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    The good news is that a shite load is falling in the catchments. Well, coastal catchments anyway.
     
    davidg likes this.
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,463
    Likes Received:
    28,865
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney