NSW/ACT Rain Event - July 25-29, 2020

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
This event has already started in Queensland.

The models are agreed that a trough, now off the Queensland coast, will depeen and develop Southwards. It is likely to spawn a low off the Northern NSW coast early next week. After that the models diverge. Access moves it further South and it hangs around for a while. GFS and EC move it further South and then it's followed by another.

Sydney’s forecast rainfall for the event is 30-75 mm, Newcastle 25-85 mm. It looks like mostly a coastal event, with just minor ”spillage” over the Divide. It will be mild to warm for this time of year. Snow is not on the menu.

Here’s this morning’s forecast rainfall to next Thursday July 30, from the BOM:

2B4C7C8C-41AF-4F76-A497-2200A9C5FF66.png
 

AshestoAshes

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Jul 3, 2019
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Gee whiz about to end up on our first above average July since 2016, been a long time coming. Always thinking of those not so fortunate, pray for those to see some timely rain. The last 3 July's have seen a total of 28mms.
 

Homer

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Castle Hill - Sydney
Newcastle - 20 - 35 mms
Albion Park - 50 80 mms
Wollongong - 45 70 mms

Seems to be a Metro/Illawarra bullseye for Sunday. Rain tapers off further north and south of those regions.

Edit:

Coffs Harbour Saturday 25 - 40 mm's Sunday 20 - 60 mm's.
 
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Steve777

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It’s foggy here this morning, which is unusual. The fog rolled in during the last half hour or so. Webcams show thick fog on the Harbour.

Fog in Sydney normally means a sunny day on the way, but the satellite shows mid level cloud moving in from the North, with showers forecast for this afternoon.

The forecast also says chance of a thunderstorm late this morning, i.e. in 3-4 hours’ time. We’ll see.
 
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Homer

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It’s foggy here this morning, which is unusual. The fog rolled in during the last half hour or so. Webcams show thick fog on the Harbour.

Fog in Sydney normally means a sunny day on the way, but the satellite shows mid level cloud moving in from the North, with showers forecast for this afternoon.

The forecast also says chance of a thunderstorm late this morning, i.e. in 3-4 hours’ time. We’ll see.

Certainly very foggy here as well Steve. Looks Sydney wide as well.
Currently just 8.5 deg's. If we don't see much sun today I can't seed the forecast max's being reached.
 

Homer

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Getting very dark here in Castle Hill. Some big, dark cu's about. Radar starting to fill in so the onset of rain is near.
There was enough sun around this morning to get the max's near enough to forecast (generally a degree or so below).
Fog didn't clear till after 11 am which kept watching the boy at soccer this morning feeling decidedly cold.
 
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Homer

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Really need that proposed Central West radar. Near Wellington wasn't it?
There's been some reasonable falls through the Central West Slopes and Plains today.
 

Steve777

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There was widespread rain / showers across NSW to 9:00 this morning. Heaviest falls were on the far North Coast with many 50mm+. The Central West had a number of falls 25 mm+, with 36 mm at Cowra.

Just modest falls in Sydney so far, around 5 mm give or take.

Here, it’s solid overcast, light showers and 14°. There’s a big blob of rain moving in from the North so rain totals should start to pick up soon.
 
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