50 MMS,so far from rain from the east,and still coming down,Here at Ellalong SE of Cessnock in the wollombi valley catchment north side of the Watagan Range
Great stuff Stormy. I hope you end up with a decent amount in your dams. Here, like many other areas, it is just persistent moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Only about 35 mm's since it started last evening, but feels like so much more than that.
Bloody pouring down all day here in Newcastle, backyard has flooded worse than I’ve ever seen. Got drenched ferrying a couple of scared chickens back to their coop, it seems they’d make terrible ducks. Here’s hoping it moves on soon.
GFS as at 10:00 tomorrow morning: GFS has the low hovering off the Illawarra for 24 hours before moving away to the SE and fizzling out.
I've had enough rain- Bankstown 23 mm and Peakhurst 27. The sooner we are north of the low centre and get a SW flow the sooner it will clear. A miserable wet, cold day. On the plus, the dams will get a nice top up and maybe Nepean will get close to a spill.
The rain turned heavier later this afternoon in Canberra, not that it is as heavy as on south coast earlier in the afternoon, with Rainbow Lorikeets taking shelter. The pool was near full so I bled off some water and hope the rain is lighter in the morning as I have two grand kids to get to school but only one kids seat in the car. So will have to walk them as usual.
Seen a video of flooding in the main street of Mayfield (Newcastle suburb). EDIT Newcastle Herald Report: https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/...-rescued-from-newcastle-flash-flooding/?cs=12
About 12mm here on the Jindy North Shore falling on already wet ground from last weeks 20cm snow. Nice Total shite for skiing though
Rain has been intense here for the past 30 mins or so and we aren't even under the yellow bits on BOM's radar. Nice drop at Williamtown!!
The wind is picking up now. There have been gusts in the 50s-60s km/h at coastal sites near Sydney. Sydney OH has has 37.8 mm since 9:00 and 43.6 mm since yesterday afternoon. For Chatswood the numbers are 42 mm and 47. Just a steady 4 mm per hour.
Up to 69mm since midnight at Stanhope Gardens on my PWS with Rain rates up to 38mm per hour. Temperature has hovered around 13’c for most of the day, but has jumped up to 14’c in the last few hours. Tomorrow looks to be much dryer for Sydney, with the system moving south of Sydney. BOM are predicting up to 120mm of rain for Batemans Bay tomorrow, and unfortunately 25mm of rain on the lower slopes of the NSW ski resorts. Just need a cold pool to go with this ECL now.
drive from sth coast up over the Clyde to Canberra late this arvo. Coast highway was pretty sketchy at times down to 70 or 80 k's between Ulladulla and B Bay. lots of flooding on the coastal farms and low lying land back of the lakes etc. eased up fair bit up around Braidwood but they where still getting plenty of joy. paddocks all wet , dams healthy and obvious pooling water right thru Bungendore - Qbn.
Yes it looks like it’s centre is off Newcastle now according to the BOM radar. I wonder if the heaviest of the rain is now past Sydney.
SE Wrap is starting will really start driving it over the escarpment like we're seeing for the Central Tablelands now, should be Bowral soon.
Hard to see where the center is by the sat or radar images. Easier to watch the wind obs on the coastal stations. Nobbys has gone hard WNW - NW in the last hour and I wonder if that will stay like that and indicate it is north of the wrap around. Then you go down to Norah Head, Gosford and into the basin to watch the swing from SE to W. If it happens. Norah Head wind is still east of south so you could guess the center is off the central coast.
Looking at the radar and satellite, the rain has cleared Newcastle, with the clear in edge moving South. (EDIT: winds have turned Westerly at Newcastle and Lake Macquarie - the low must now be off the Central Coast). A few totals since 9:00: Williamtown 131 Cessnock 48 Lake Macquarie 99 Gosford 83 Sydney 44 Penrith 52 Marangaroo 25 Bellambi 49
Nope. You are only a few km's from me and it's still pissing down here. Really pissing down. It has become wild here in the past hour or so. Rain all day but now rain and very strong winds. As connells said, once the winds turn to a more s/westerly direction, it will start to dry out in the basin. Always happens once ECL's are south of the basin. Radar is showing it may be soon. Hence the lesser rain totals downgraded for Sydney tomorrow. Of course, there will be some strong residual outflow that defies the wind direction.
I'm sure most metro are getting this, but the wind and rain is insane here at the moment and has been for over an hour. This as the low passes close by and heads south.
All models really stepping up their game on the concentration of the Southern flank on the South Coast over the next 24. Watch BoM double-take on forecasts. A few updates may be required.
Getting it here, in the Eastern burbs, I can assure you. The real deal will be for coastal centres tomorrow from mid-morning IMO. Looking imminently large now.
To be fair, they're not looking to fair too badly this time around. Durras, Broulee, Sussex on the otherhand...
Continuing wild here with really heavy rain and strong winds but I can see the clearing edge on radar. What are you expecting tomorrow?
For the record on these forums, this is a typical ECL. Loving it atm. It's intense. Though, I'm not liking the ski fields result.
The Southern flank to hook up the coast mid-morning, right though to mid-arvo looking potentially damaging to the Coastal communities.
Ulladulla has 50mm-150mm as the forecast already. Upside to that by how much do you reckon? Hoping the resorts don’t cop too much of it Flogging down here in Killara, should back off soon. Just on 80mm since 9am.
Yeah, still a decent spread in global models. AXS-C puts 70-80mm on NSW resorts which is a worry. Coastal centres would be looking over a tonne, you’d expect as a minimum. But dat wind...
Ramped up quite a bit of late at Otford (northern end of Illawarra). BOM Wattamolla anemometer looks to have packed it in about 9:30 pm, and the Holfuy site on Bald Hill has been busted for a day or so. So just down to descriptors now: wind wooshing through the trees, raining heavily but not torrential. Bit too dark and stormy for a peek into the rain gauge this arvo in my jimmyjams.
Could that be snot above 1600-1700m or are we now looking at a top to bottom wash out? BOM has 1700m but so often when the precip ramps up with these things so does the freeze level.
