NSW/ACT Rain Event - July 25-29, 2020

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,516
3,718
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Castle Hill - Sydney
50 MMS,so far from the east,and still coming down,Here at Ellalong SE of Cessnock in the wollombi valley catchment north side of the Watagan Range

Great stuff Stormy. I hope you end up with a decent amount in your dams.

Here, like many other areas, it is just persistent moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Only about 35 mm's since it started last evening, but feels like so much more than that.
 

ShavedBadger

Consumer of Eggs
Ski Pass
Apr 30, 2018
4,777
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363
Bloody pouring down all day here in Newcastle, backyard has flooded worse than I’ve ever seen. Got drenched ferrying a couple of scared chickens back to their coop, it seems they’d make terrible ducks. Here’s hoping it moves on soon.
 

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,196
3,362
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
GFS as at 10:00 tomorrow morning:

8CB0D324-B914-4236-98DF-3AC35F24A765.png


GFS has the low hovering off the Illawarra for 24 hours before moving away to the SE and fizzling out.
 
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warrie

One of Us
Jun 15, 2008
834
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Sydney
I've had enough rain- Bankstown 23 mm and Peakhurst 27. The sooner we are north of the low centre and get a SW flow the sooner it will clear. A miserable wet, cold day. On the plus, the dams will get a nice top up and maybe Nepean will get close to a spill.
 

oldgeezer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 18, 2016
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Grandpa oh and computer programmer too.
The rain turned heavier later this afternoon in Canberra, not that it is as heavy as on south coast earlier in the afternoon, with Rainbow Lorikeets taking shelter.

IMG_4509.jpg


The pool was near full so I bled off some water and hope the rain is lighter in the morning as I have two grand kids to get to school but only one kids seat in the car. So will have to walk them as usual.
 

Northwesterly

Hard Yards
Jul 8, 2019
63
153
83
Stanhope Gardens
Up to 69mm since midnight at Stanhope Gardens on my PWS with Rain rates up to 38mm per hour.

Temperature has hovered around 13’c for most of the day, but has jumped up to 14’c in the last few hours.

Tomorrow looks to be much dryer for Sydney, with the system moving south of Sydney. BOM are predicting up to 120mm of rain for Batemans Bay tomorrow, and unfortunately 25mm of rain on the lower slopes of the NSW ski resorts.
Just need a cold pool to go with this ECL now.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,073
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Yuin Country
drive from sth coast up over the Clyde to Canberra late this arvo.
Coast highway was pretty sketchy at times down to 70 or 80 k's between Ulladulla and B Bay.
lots of flooding on the coastal farms and low lying land back of the lakes etc.
eased up fair bit up around Braidwood but they where still getting plenty of joy.
paddocks all wet , dams healthy and obvious pooling water right thru Bungendore - Qbn.
 

connells

One of Us
Hard to see where the center is by the sat or radar images.

Easier to watch the wind obs on the coastal stations. Nobbys has gone hard WNW - NW in the last hour and I wonder if that will stay like that and indicate it is north of the wrap around.
Then you go down to Norah Head, Gosford and into the basin to watch the swing from SE to W. If it happens.

Norah Head wind is still east of south so you could guess the center is off the central coast.
 
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Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,196
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Looking at the radar and satellite, the rain has cleared Newcastle, with the clear in edge moving South.
(EDIT: winds have turned Westerly at Newcastle and Lake Macquarie - the low must now be off the Central Coast).

A few totals since 9:00:

Williamtown 131
Cessnock 48
Lake Macquarie 99
Gosford 83
Sydney 44
Penrith 52
Marangaroo 25
Bellambi 49
 

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Yes it looks like it’s centre is off Newcastle now according to the BOM radar.

I wonder if the heaviest of the rain is now past Sydney.

Nope. You are only a few km's from me and it's still pissing down here. Really pissing down. It has become wild here in the past hour or so. Rain all day but now rain and very strong winds.

As connells said, once the winds turn to a more s/westerly direction, it will start to dry out in the basin. Always happens once ECL's are south of the basin. Radar is showing it may be soon.
Hence the lesser rain totals downgraded for Sydney tomorrow.
Of course, there will be some strong residual outflow that defies the wind direction.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,033
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
All models really stepping up their game on the concentration of the Southern flank on the South Coast over the next 24.
Watch BoM double-take on forecasts. A few updates may be required.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,033
36,869
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
I'm sure most metro are getting this, but the wind and rain is insane here at the moment and has been for over an hour. This as the low passes close by and heads south.
Getting it here, in the Eastern burbs, I can assure you.
The real deal will be for coastal centres tomorrow from mid-morning IMO.
Looking imminently large now.
 

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Getting it here, in the Eastern burbs, I can assure you.
The real deal will be for coastal centres tomorrow from mid-morning IMO.
Looking imminently large now.

Continuing wild here with really heavy rain and strong winds but I can see the clearing edge on radar. What are you expecting tomorrow?
 

Trail Blazer

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Jun 8, 2000
11,114
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Jimi on Weatherzone. Pymble, Sydney
All models really stepping up their game on the concentration of the Southern flank on the South Coast over the next 24.
Watch BoM double-take on forecasts. A few updates may be required.

Ulladulla has 50mm-150mm as the forecast already. Upside to that by how much do you reckon? Hoping the resorts don’t cop too much of it

Flogging down here in Killara, should back off soon. Just on 80mm since 9am.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,593
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3,563
woonona
Unremarkable rain in Wollongong.
Just steady
However window panes starting to rattle
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,033
36,869
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Ulladulla has 50mm-150mm as the forecast already. Upside to that by how much do you reckon? Hoping the resorts don’t cop too much of it

Flogging down here in Killara, should back off soon. Just on 80mm since 9am.
Yeah, still a decent spread in global models. AXS-C puts 70-80mm on NSW resorts which is a worry.
Coastal centres would be looking over a tonne, you’d expect as a minimum.
But dat wind...
 
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teleroo

<\unencrypted>
Ski Pass
Jun 19, 2019
1,563
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Illawarra
Ramped up quite a bit of late at Otford (northern end of Illawarra). BOM Wattamolla anemometer looks to have packed it in about 9:30 pm, and the Holfuy site on Bald Hill has been busted for a day or so. So just down to descriptors now: wind wooshing through the trees, raining heavily but not torrential. Bit too dark and stormy for a peek into the rain gauge this arvo in my jimmyjams.
 

Trail Blazer

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Jun 8, 2000
11,114
1,483
813
Jimi on Weatherzone. Pymble, Sydney
Yeah, still a decent spread in global models. AXS-C puts 70-80mm on NSW resorts which is a worry.
Coastal centres would be looking over a tonne, you’d expect as a minimum.
But dat wind...

Could that be snot above 1600-1700m or are we now looking at a top to bottom wash out? BOM has 1700m but so often when the precip ramps up with these things so does the freeze level.
 
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