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NSW/ACT Rain Event - July 25-29, 2020

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Steve777, Jul 23, 2020.

  1. stormy3

    stormy3 Addicted

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    Location:
    Ellalong.10kms sw of Cessnock Hunter Valley nsw.
    50 MMS,so far from rain from the east,and still coming down,Here at Ellalong SE of Cessnock in the wollombi valley catchment north side of the Watagan Range
     
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  2. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    65mm near Hornsby so far since 9am.
     
  3. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Great stuff Stormy. I hope you end up with a decent amount in your dams.

    Here, like many other areas, it is just persistent moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Only about 35 mm's since it started last evening, but feels like so much more than that.
     
  4. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sitting at close to 40mm for the event so far.
    Lower BMs
     
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  5. ShavedBadger

    ShavedBadger Latte Sipper Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bloody pouring down all day here in Newcastle, backyard has flooded worse than I’ve ever seen. Got drenched ferrying a couple of scared chickens back to their coop, it seems they’d make terrible ducks. Here’s hoping it moves on soon.
     
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  6. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    GFS as at 10:00 tomorrow morning:



    GFS has the low hovering off the Illawarra for 24 hours before moving away to the SE and fizzling out.
     
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  7. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Addicted

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    32mm for the event here, 24mm so far for the day. Just good soaking rain for all the plants.
     
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  8. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    I've had enough rain- Bankstown 23 mm and Peakhurst 27. The sooner we are north of the low centre and get a SW flow the sooner it will clear. A miserable wet, cold day. On the plus, the dams will get a nice top up and maybe Nepean will get close to a spill.
     
  9. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Addicted

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    The wind is starting to pick up from the SSW around here.
     
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  10. Ben K

    Ben K Hard Yards

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    Has been raining non stop for hours here. 51.6mm at Gosford so far and 53.2mm at Norah Head.
     
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  11. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The rain turned heavier later this afternoon in Canberra, not that it is as heavy as on south coast earlier in the afternoon, with Rainbow Lorikeets taking shelter.



    The pool was near full so I bled off some water and hope the rain is lighter in the morning as I have two grand kids to get to school but only one kids seat in the car. So will have to walk them as usual.
     
  12. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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  13. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    About 12mm here on the Jindy North Shore falling on already wet ground from last weeks 20cm snow.

    Nice

    Total shite for skiing though
     
  14. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Rain has been intense here for the past 30 mins or so and we aren't even under the yellow bits on BOM's radar.
    Nice drop at Williamtown!!
     
  15. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The wind is picking up now. There have been gusts in the 50s-60s km/h at coastal sites near Sydney.

    Sydney OH has has 37.8 mm since 9:00 and 43.6 mm since yesterday afternoon. For Chatswood the numbers are 42 mm and 47. Just a steady 4 mm per hour.
     
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  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now 50mm
     
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  17. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Low clearly forming or moving to the central coast of NSW now. As per forecast.
     
  18. Northwesterly

    Northwesterly Hard Yards

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    Up to 69mm since midnight at Stanhope Gardens on my PWS with Rain rates up to 38mm per hour.

    Temperature has hovered around 13’c for most of the day, but has jumped up to 14’c in the last few hours.

    Tomorrow looks to be much dryer for Sydney, with the system moving south of Sydney. BOM are predicting up to 120mm of rain for Batemans Bay tomorrow, and unfortunately 25mm of rain on the lower slopes of the NSW ski resorts.
    Just need a cold pool to go with this ECL now.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking pretty ECL-like, by definition, to me.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    drive from sth coast up over the Clyde to Canberra late this arvo.
    Coast highway was pretty sketchy at times down to 70 or 80 k's between Ulladulla and B Bay.
    lots of flooding on the coastal farms and low lying land back of the lakes etc.
    eased up fair bit up around Braidwood but they where still getting plenty of joy.
    paddocks all wet , dams healthy and obvious pooling water right thru Bungendore - Qbn.
     
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  21. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Steady, soaking rain in Canberra: 25mm in my gauge to date (Tuggeranong).
     
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  22. Northwesterly

    Northwesterly Hard Yards

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    Yes it looks like it’s centre is off Newcastle now according to the BOM radar.

    I wonder if the heaviest of the rain is now past Sydney.
     
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  23. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    SE Wrap is starting will really start driving it over the escarpment like we're seeing for the Central Tablelands now, should be Bowral soon.
     
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  24. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    EC progs it to easy in the very early hours of tomorrow morning, thunderstorm mentioned as well.
     
  25. connells

    connells One of Us

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    Hard to see where the center is by the sat or radar images.

    Easier to watch the wind obs on the coastal stations. Nobbys has gone hard WNW - NW in the last hour and I wonder if that will stay like that and indicate it is north of the wrap around.
    Then you go down to Norah Head, Gosford and into the basin to watch the swing from SE to W. If it happens.

    Norah Head wind is still east of south so you could guess the center is off the central coast.
     
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  26. ShavedBadger

    ShavedBadger Latte Sipper Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  27. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Looking at the radar and satellite, the rain has cleared Newcastle, with the clear in edge moving South.
    (EDIT: winds have turned Westerly at Newcastle and Lake Macquarie - the low must now be off the Central Coast).

    A few totals since 9:00:

    Williamtown 131
    Cessnock 48
    Lake Macquarie 99
    Gosford 83
    Sydney 44
    Penrith 52
    Marangaroo 25
    Bellambi 49
     
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  28. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Nope. You are only a few km's from me and it's still pissing down here. Really pissing down. It has become wild here in the past hour or so. Rain all day but now rain and very strong winds.

    As connells said, once the winds turn to a more s/westerly direction, it will start to dry out in the basin. Always happens once ECL's are south of the basin. Radar is showing it may be soon.
    Hence the lesser rain totals downgraded for Sydney tomorrow.
    Of course, there will be some strong residual outflow that defies the wind direction.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bummed I bought that wamberal house
     
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  32. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm sure most metro are getting this, but the wind and rain is insane here at the moment and has been for over an hour. This as the low passes close by and heads south.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All models really stepping up their game on the concentration of the Southern flank on the South Coast over the next 24.
    Watch BoM double-take on forecasts. A few updates may be required.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Getting it here, in the Eastern burbs, I can assure you.
    The real deal will be for coastal centres tomorrow from mid-morning IMO.
    Looking imminently large now.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be fair, they're not looking to fair too badly this time around.
    Durras, Broulee, Sussex on the otherhand...
     
  36. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Continuing wild here with really heavy rain and strong winds but I can see the clearing edge on radar. What are you expecting tomorrow?
     
  37. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    For the record on these forums, this is a typical ECL. Loving it atm. It's intense.
    Though, I'm not liking the ski fields result.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Southern flank to hook up the coast mid-morning, right though to mid-arvo looking potentially damaging to the Coastal communities.
     
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  39. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensemble totals not mucking around (there goes any base we had on the Main Range below 1600m)


     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    a few flags there not so far off shore......
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gusts be in shore forsure.
    Add 50% for gusts.
     
  43. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Ulladulla has 50mm-150mm as the forecast already. Upside to that by how much do you reckon? Hoping the resorts don’t cop too much of it

    Flogging down here in Killara, should back off soon. Just on 80mm since 9am.
     
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  45. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unremarkable rain in Wollongong.
    Just steady
    However window panes starting to rattle
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, still a decent spread in global models. AXS-C puts 70-80mm on NSW resorts which is a worry.
    Coastal centres would be looking over a tonne, you’d expect as a minimum.
    But dat wind...
     
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  47. teleroo

    teleroo Waiting for winter... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ramped up quite a bit of late at Otford (northern end of Illawarra). BOM Wattamolla anemometer looks to have packed it in about 9:30 pm, and the Holfuy site on Bald Hill has been busted for a day or so. So just down to descriptors now: wind wooshing through the trees, raining heavily but not torrential. Bit too dark and stormy for a peek into the rain gauge this arvo in my jimmyjams.
     
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  48. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Really hosing down now for the last hurrah for a bit. Almost mildly cyclonic.
     
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  49. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Could that be snot above 1600-1700m or are we now looking at a top to bottom wash out? BOM has 1700m but so often when the precip ramps up with these things so does the freeze level.
     
  50. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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