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Re: OZ Predictions: 5 - 10th July System.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by 7wombathead, Jun 25, 2013.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Is there a forum

    Something looks like its brewing.
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Gerg was keen.
    Spag is sorta keen
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I guess if it doesn't manifest than I will be heading to the other side of the Tasman.

    The traditional SW system is not really holding sway this year as opposed to the easterly feed yesterday.

    I can sort of imagine now what an ECL to polar low must deliver to Snowies.
     
  4. Presto

    Presto Addicted

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    Let's hope Jane's predictions of "there are signs of the system we have been waiting for, late next week..." follows through
     
  5. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    A good series of COLD fronts would be good!
    There seems to be indications some weather to come from the S-SW.. It has to happen sooner or later!
     
  6. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    ^^ Or does it...?
     
  7. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Both ec and access looking in line around the 5th. A nice traditional SW blast dropping 20-30 cm over 12 hours down to 1300m is my early call.
    IMO
     
  8. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    It could come off if these ridgeing high pressure systems F#ck off ! Sorry they are frustrating me as they do every year !
     
  9. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    What's a consensus at present is that a 1040+ HPa anticyclone looks like anchoring itself SW of Perth for a while in early-mid July. The potential is there for a week or more of polar air to blast us silly if the High doesn't ridge too much.
     
  10. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Yep access is looking the goods for the Friday 5th
    [​IMG]
     
    #10 nisstrust, Jun 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  11. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    There is definitely potential there but i'm not convinced that high is not going to ridge and push everything south.
     
  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Concur.
    Looks good atm imo.
    Later in date range, yum.
     
    #12 The Plowking, Jun 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  13. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Following this with interest seeing as I'll be driving in it!
     
  14. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Ditto. (Had to look up borracho)
     
    #14 Gerg, Jun 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  15. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Quite liking 06Z GFS since the ridge over the continent doesn't look very strong and there could be a strong polar jet (at 500 HPa) zipping northward and heading our way on July 4.
     
  16. Heli

    Heli A Local

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    Looking with even more interest as we'll be motorcycling in it, at night, on the Icicle Ride Saturday 6th.

    We won't object if it delays a few days [​IMG]
     
    #16 Heli, Jun 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  17. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    GFS and AXS-G this morning aren't terribly encouraging with the ridge still largely dominant. EC looks better and has the front coming through quite strongly on July 4. Could see a stronger front around July 9-10 IMO.
     
  18. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Still loving the position of the High SW of perth. This will flop around from now in but if that High anchors we are on IMO
     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    #19 7wombathead, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  20. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Similar on EC except the high is ridging a bit further across.

    [​IMG]
     
    #20 Alfred14, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I agrees the angles of the fronts and high are critical. But the EC chart does show sustained south westerly airflow for a few days,

    solid potential.
     
  22. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    +1 plenty of potential during this period hopefully it keeps improving as it gets closer!
     
    #22 Alfred14, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  23. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears are following this prediction with keen interest!!!

    They want some solid potential on the ground urgently??
    [​IMG]

    Team Bears have pencilled in July5th in their sketch books!!
     
    #23 Ubiquitous Steve, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  24. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    One small difference from 2011 start is that it looks like NZ is going to get some action from this system
     
    #24 ScottGN, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  25. JustinH

    JustinH Hard Yards

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    Well I'm going to hold my breath...

    So is the most likely reason for this to NOT be an event the High over Qld?
     
  26. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Access looks on the money going by todays run, but EC on the 5th and 6th has that blocking high pushing through.
     
  27. DaveT

    DaveT Hard Yards

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    GFS looks good for some sustained action from late on the 5th to the 12th IMO. Still a long way out but fingers crossed.
     
  28. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    00z EC hasn't changed much, showing a sustained westerly flow from the 5th
     
  29. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sustained westerly flow doesn't sound good for Buller...
     
    #29 Edgecrusher, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  30. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Might lean towards being more south westerly early hard to talk specifics this far out
     
    #30 Alfred14, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  31. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Pretty flat around that period on spag aswell

    [​IMG]
     
    #31 Alfred14, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Spag illustrates exactly what the models say this arvo...
     
  33. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    It does
     
    #33 Alfred14, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  34. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    I have great feelings about this one - even though it is a full week away.

    Here's my update:
    There are strong signs of the system we have been waiting for, from Thursday next week. It is a whole week away, so details will change - but if it peaks here as it looks like it will at the moment, then 20 to 50 cm is quite possible. This front is strong and knocks the high out of the way, so more fronts can follow [​IMG] ...
     
    #34 janesweather, Jun 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    thanks jane
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    #36 7wombathead, Jun 28, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good setup from Wednesday next week. Really like it.
     
  38. DaveM

    DaveM Addicted

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    next weekend or just after also sees AXS and GFS placing 524 thickness over much of Tas and perhaps almost 520 down south in Tas. If precip levels are ok, these levels could create snow to or almost to sea level, especially in the west and south where precip will be highest.
     
  39. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    18Z GFS certainly ramps things up for late next week, but still wondering where the decent precip is?

    A 700HPa temp of -13c on Friday evening over the alps is getting serious though.

    EC has around 10cm for Buller.
     
  40. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    Sea level snow prediction(s) in southern TAS? Okay you guys have gotten me excited xD
     
  41. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Still looking ok for the 5th on 00z GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #41 Alfred14, Jun 28, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    will depend on high above position and staying relatively weak and ability to stay still to let the moisture flow in

    but looks good. I know I have jinxed it by saying this, so sorry
     
  43. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Latest EC run isn't looking that great IMO

    5th still looks ok but the high appears to ridge in and spoil the party quite quickly..... [​IMG]

    Still more time for it to change though.....
     
    #43 FourSquare04, Jun 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  44. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Will it it be ACCESS or GFS for the 5th and 6th? The former is far more pleasing if you're looking for a dump. The latter has the ridge squeezing the low to the south. While I'm at it can anyone tell me why cold fronts don't appear on said charts. Do I have to wait for the BoM 4 dayer on say Mon pm to get an idea re fronts for the 5th or is there an earlier synoptic from another source which has fronts? WZ 7 dayer not withstanding... W
     
  45. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I am liking all models. That high seems anchored SW of Perth for 48 hours giving the open for 2 fronts to smash through from the 5th. I am sticking with 20-30cm down to 1300m over a 24 hour period now. IMO.....
     
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reckon 15cm with wind loading the leeward sides a bit more.
    Looks a bit ridgey to me
     
    #46 The Plowking, Jun 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  47. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could you be more specific
     
  48. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Both models looking good this morning ! Hopefully it continues to evolve in the positive !
     
  49. CBR

    CBR Hard Yards

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    Heading down on the 8th.. likelihood for awesomeness to remain till then?
     
  50. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah high pressure is concerning