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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by 7wombathead, Jun 25, 2013.
Is there a forum
Something looks like its brewing.
Gerg was keen.
Spag is sorta keen
I guess if it doesn't manifest than I will be heading to the other side of the Tasman.
The traditional SW system is not really holding sway this year as opposed to the easterly feed yesterday.
I can sort of imagine now what an ECL to polar low must deliver to Snowies.
Let's hope Jane's predictions of "there are signs of the system we have been waiting for, late next week..." follows through
A good series of COLD fronts would be good!
There seems to be indications some weather to come from the S-SW.. It has to happen sooner or later!
^^ Or does it...?
Both ec and access looking in line around the 5th. A nice traditional SW blast dropping 20-30 cm over 12 hours down to 1300m is my early call.
It could come off if these ridgeing high pressure systems F#ck off ! Sorry they are frustrating me as they do every year !
What's a consensus at present is that a 1040+ HPa anticyclone looks like anchoring itself SW of Perth for a while in early-mid July. The potential is there for a week or more of polar air to blast us silly if the High doesn't ridge too much.
Yep access is looking the goods for the Friday 5th
There is definitely potential there but i'm not convinced that high is not going to ridge and push everything south.
Looks good atm imo.
Later in date range, yum.
Following this with interest seeing as I'll be driving in it!
Ditto. (Had to look up borracho)
Quite liking 06Z GFS since the ridge over the continent doesn't look very strong and there could be a strong polar jet (at 500 HPa) zipping northward and heading our way on July 4.
Looking with even more interest as we'll be motorcycling in it, at night, on the Icicle Ride Saturday 6th.
We won't object if it delays a few days
GFS and AXS-G this morning aren't terribly encouraging with the ridge still largely dominant. EC looks better and has the front coming through quite strongly on July 4. Could see a stronger front around July 9-10 IMO.
Still loving the position of the High SW of perth. This will flop around from now in but if that High anchors we are on IMO
Check this GFS.
Looks set for s a sustained cold blast with moisture, reminds me of 2011 start.
Similar on EC except the high is ridging a bit further across.
I agrees the angles of the fronts and high are critical. But the EC chart does show sustained south westerly airflow for a few days,
+1 plenty of potential during this period hopefully it keeps improving as it gets closer!
Bears are following this prediction with keen interest!!!
They want some solid potential on the ground urgently??
Team Bears have pencilled in July5th in their sketch books!!
One small difference from 2011 start is that it looks like NZ is going to get some action from this system
Well I'm going to hold my breath...
So is the most likely reason for this to NOT be an event the High over Qld?
Access looks on the money going by todays run, but EC on the 5th and 6th has that blocking high pushing through.
GFS looks good for some sustained action from late on the 5th to the 12th IMO. Still a long way out but fingers crossed.
00z EC hasn't changed much, showing a sustained westerly flow from the 5th
Sustained westerly flow doesn't sound good for Buller...
Might lean towards being more south westerly early hard to talk specifics this far out
Pretty flat around that period on spag aswell
Spag illustrates exactly what the models say this arvo...
I have great feelings about this one - even though it is a full week away.
Here's my update:
There are strong signs of the system we have been waiting for, from Thursday next week. It is a whole week away, so details will change - but if it peaks here as it looks like it will at the moment, then 20 to 50 cm is quite possible. This front is strong and knocks the high out of the way, so more fronts can follow ...
BOM's GFS looks good
Good setup from Wednesday next week. Really like it.
next weekend or just after also sees AXS and GFS placing 524 thickness over much of Tas and perhaps almost 520 down south in Tas. If precip levels are ok, these levels could create snow to or almost to sea level, especially in the west and south where precip will be highest.
18Z GFS certainly ramps things up for late next week, but still wondering where the decent precip is?
A 700HPa temp of -13c on Friday evening over the alps is getting serious though.
EC has around 10cm for Buller.
Sea level snow prediction(s) in southern TAS? Okay you guys have gotten me excited xD
Still looking ok for the 5th on 00z GFS
will depend on high above position and staying relatively weak and ability to stay still to let the moisture flow in
but looks good. I know I have jinxed it by saying this, so sorry
Latest EC run isn't looking that great IMO
5th still looks ok but the high appears to ridge in and spoil the party quite quickly.....
Still more time for it to change though.....
Will it it be ACCESS or GFS for the 5th and 6th? The former is far more pleasing if you're looking for a dump. The latter has the ridge squeezing the low to the south. While I'm at it can anyone tell me why cold fronts don't appear on said charts. Do I have to wait for the BoM 4 dayer on say Mon pm to get an idea re fronts for the 5th or is there an earlier synoptic from another source which has fronts? WZ 7 dayer not withstanding... W
I am liking all models. That high seems anchored SW of Perth for 48 hours giving the open for 2 fronts to smash through from the 5th. I am sticking with 20-30cm down to 1300m over a 24 hour period now. IMO.....
Reckon 15cm with wind loading the leeward sides a bit more.
Looks a bit ridgey to me
Could you be more specific
Both models looking good this morning ! Hopefully it continues to evolve in the positive !
Heading down on the 8th.. likelihood for awesomeness to remain till then?
yeah high pressure is concerning