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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by 7wombathead, Jun 25, 2013.
Clearly my undertones of sarcasm were too subtle this time Ian. Noted.
Sorry, bit tired today.
I believe he bases his forecasts on scattering a handful of chicken bones, at midnight, under a drawing of a full moon.
Stay on topic.
Nice one, tks for clarifying. I guess there is some cause for optimisim above the basics in the models so far
Based on sat image above, if it can swing and form into a cutoff Low centered over Tasmania. Thanks Mr Huey.
Its got a fair way to swing
In all seriousness, that link gives a good start but thereâ€™s a significant barrier to following the content there, and following what people talk about in the models here. This sort of stuff should really be up my alley, but the barrier presented by the jargon and assumed knowledge (along with admittedly not making the time to do my own research) means like almost anyone checking these threads, you tend to just gloss over the explanations and look for buzzwords and snow fall predictions. An update to that link along with a solid glossary to go through some of the terms would be much appreciated by more than just myself.
OK sorry for wandering off topic!
Good point azz.
I don't pretend to be a weather guru.
I will start a new thread.
00Z GFS has freezing level down as low as 1100m on Friday. And it looks like remaining less than 1800m well into next week.
BTW, Western Tasmania will get caked in snow IMO.
That's why I was moderately confident that Buller should mostly see snow rather than rain.
Yes if Mt Rufus (Near Lake St Clair/Mt Arrowsmith) had a resort (as was attempted previously) it would probably be a strong reliable snow cover resort with easy access. Most people seem to believe it would easily be the best location for a resort (snow wise) in Tas.
Orographics play a major role in the westerlies dumping on Rufus. It regularly holds snow into early summer.
I think the west coast highway west of Derwent Bridge may be closed in this event.
Latest BOM charts for comment
I like those maps and am staying with my same call through out 20-30cm down to 1300m duration however is a bit longer.
NSW will have some serious seeding potential IMO
Vic resorts ever seed?
No as far as I know.
To this weekend... GFS predicts more..for longer.
I'm sticking with my 41.5cm call for NSW up top
28.333 cm for Perisher valley.
Seeding isn't done for the resorts its done for snowy hydro
and thus only for NSW. back on topic strongly depends on the above high how much moisture makes it. Donza's minty vibe is high on this one, but as this season as sucked ass so much I suspect a change before thursday night with the high strengthening too early and pushing it south, which sucks...
IMO I'm still staying with 20cm for Vic resorts and 30cm for NSW (Thredbo and Perisher)
I like the embedded troughs on the BOM charts. 20cm Buller,35cm for Hotham and Falls and 40cm for NSW is my revised guesstimate... and hope by Sunday.
Any predictions for the little Vic resorts (BB and LM)?
I've been calling snow for LM for this Friday and Saturday for over a week now. A little less westerly and a little more southerly would be preferable, but I think it will be cold enough for it not to matter too much. Pre-frontal rain on Thursday, changing to snow overnight down to about 1000m.
Not an ideal system for Baw-Baw IMO
I don't think they will see much out of this.
Wash your mouth out CC. That is not what we want to hear.
Vic Bom has snow down to 700m in SW Gippsland. With Baw Baw being the first mountain range in from the coast down there it's a dead cert to produce an orographic effect and hence precipitation which will be the white stuff. With thunderstorms a chance near the Prom it's a clear run for a couple to be pushed inland and hit BB. As long as you Vics don't dry the airmass out too much and leave some moisture for NSW. ...W
Any thoughts on how much LM will receive? I never know wether to relate LM to BB or Buller when it comes to snow fall, or are they both just too different from LM
BB & LM are pretty similar. LM far more like BB than Buller!
Highs ridging hard Friday late pm
Jane likes it, in fact she's marginally upgraded her original forecast to 20-35cm from 20-30
For Tassy this is a good system for northern and western Tas, predictions from me are 50cm for Cradle (and Mt Rufus), 30cm for Mawson and 20cm for Ben, locally some places may be a lot more, cold westerly streams can really dump in Tas if it pans out.
I think the AXS 10 day is based on point spaced on a 25km grid. Terrain is averaged over the 25km x 25km grid square. So over that huge area average elevation doesn't show the main range as abruptly as it occurs. The 3 day is a smaller grid (say around 10km). The old 2 dayer was a 5km grid (i think). That's why the 3 day charts appears to show precipitation in a splotchy pattern - i takes topography into account much better than the large scale models. But even at 10km grid the spine of the range would not be well represented.
I'm sure PG could clarify or correct me on the specifics if i have it wrong. I have the right general idea though.
Yeah hopefully the models are over playing it.. Also I thought you normally got high's ridging from positions of strength over the mainland rather than the middle of the Indian ocean. The further north this system sits the more snow we are going to see.
I think at the end of it we'll see 30-40cm all up.
Am runs show about a 12 hr ish window for good falls imo, midnight tonight to early arvo Friday. High forecast to ridge for trailing fronts and force them south.
Tassie looks to get the weather for the duration this system, mainland one direct hit.
This is much less exciting than it was a couple of days ago.
Like the girl you met in the pub at 2am last night this system is downgrading by the hour IMO
Moisture was always the issue and it just didn't seem kosher to have that isolated moisture sausage lying over the Alps
If Snowy Hydro cloud seed they might do 20cm Perisher IMO
Best. Analogy. Ever.
nooooooooo not what we want to hear
IMO looks slightly weaker on EC, but I'm still expecting 20cm (+/- 5cm), so within original expectations.
GFS seems to be holding up to exepctations for +36 (Friday night) imo.
A bit here and there through to +96 (Tuesday morning) with freezing levels seeming to be holding on imo.
Personally I think it looks better.
Walk away from the models guys and look real time.
She looked like a model at 2 am
edit on topic: what are you looking at real time for a prediction?Satellite or cams or obs?
Snowpixies post re 2 am is sexist and you know it CC . You should delete it now. IMO... W
I agreee. Its already snowing lighly and it hasnt got started yet really. On the ground here it feels like a good old school cold front. Really windy with a quick fire 20cm and some to low levels. Still within the realm of most peoples predictions of 20cm IMO
Sh!t n giggles
But, what I will say is that nws seeding and the big o lift
I think it's a vic system,
Hotham or falls will do the best out of this (and more than likely hotham)
I'm sticking with 30+cm
strange..that model is usually conservative.
Yes you are correct but the numbers are slightly out. Current ACCESS global model is 640 x 481 which gives latitude resolution of 0.375 deg and a longitude resolution of 0.56 degrees. At the equator you can approximate this to 37.5 km / 56 km but at higher latitudes this relationship is no longer valid.
ACCESS-R is currently 0.11 degrees in lat/lon ~ 11 km resolution.
The old 'two day' code MALAPS / ACCESS-A was at the same resolution. The old LAPS/ACCESS-R code ran at 0.375 deg.
I had a detailed look at the topography files at 0.11 and 0.375 deg resolution for wind-energy forecasting validation and you'd be surprised how 'flat' the mountains look at that resolution. You can make up for it by creating 'sub grid scale roughness' and other simple models to help give more realistic skin friction and associated wave drag that would be created by topography at smaller length scales.
weatherchaser's experimental GFS for Hotham & Falls still looks promising.
Thu 04/07/2013 7cm Snow Min -6, Max 0 1100m Gale to Storm, NW/W
Fri 05/07/2013 12cm Snow Min -6, Max -3 1100m Gale to Strong to Storm, W
Sat 06/07/2013 8cm Snow Min -4, Max -3 1000m Storm to Fresh, W
Sun 07/07/2013 8cm Snow Min -3, Max -2 1150m Fresh to Strong, W/NW
Mon 08/07/2013 3cm Snow Min -3, Max -1 1400m Strong to Light, W/SW
(based off the 12z GFS run)