Re: OZ Predictions: 5 - 10th July System.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by 7wombathead, Jun 25, 2013.

  1. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Other than the odd 'all in' which pops up every now n again like this one

    Interestingly, EC does not support my 'favouring vic' call (gotta love wundermap), access r prob evenly spread (more a q of where the hot spot/s are rather than anything else), g favours vic as does GFS

    Whilst clearly possible that the resorts may not get a direct hit, I think one or two will
     
    #201 Karicta, Jul 4, 2013
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  2. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a 2 foot storm (well nearly)
     
    #202 Karicta, Jul 4, 2013
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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Does anything more need to be said.

    [​IMG]

    I think we will need a new calibration to account for low resolution of synoptic models. Check the fetch of the storm compared to area of mountains. Hence, major accumulations.

    Incoming major dump. IMO>

    NSW

    Friday 40 (Perisher) to 60 (main range) cm

    Saturday 10 to 20cm

    Sunday 10 to 20cm

    MOnday 10 to 20cm

    All up solid base due fir next week.
     
    #203 7wombathead, Jul 4, 2013
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  4. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    20cm for Buller IMO just not going to last.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I can't see it be anywhere near those sorts of numbers. You're saying a range from 70cm to 120cm for NSW / main range? I'm all for enthusiasm, but this not going to play out like that IMO.
     
    #205 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2013
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  6. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Measured against a west facing wall
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    On mount kosi

    I reckon my 41.25cm call still looks likely.
    gunna be wild
    change about to hit our mates in SA
     
    #207 Donza, Jul 4, 2013
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  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a fast moving system, pressure looks like it will barely get below 1000hPa, no cutoff low, and you can already see the speckled cloud in the Bight(indicating that the prefrontal cloud will not persist), so I agree with CC.
     
    #208 Sandy, Jul 4, 2013
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  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Barometer dropping well at Mount Gambier
    10 degrees and rain.
    like
    Norwest bow wave snow.
     
  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    My numbers are towards the upper level of the possibility. Please accept that.

    But I don't mind being wrong. If we were right all the time it would be damn crowded on the resorts on the best days that are called by the forum.

    You could have 20 cm Friday, than nothing till Sunday night and get another 10 cm .That is possible too.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Predictions in this thread - observations in the obs thread please.
     
  12. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    watching this system I like it way more for south island NZ than us. it will skirt us and maybe some seeding will help the cms up a couple but most of the moisture as per normal is delivered to the south island of the place I can't get to atm...
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's possible, but if you post a prediction that is right "out there", other people may question your process, and ask for some reasoning. Be prepared to defend the prediction with some explanation!!! [​IMG]

    This from the rules:
     
    #213 Sandy, Jul 4, 2013
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  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ideal for most resorts there is ssw around to ese.
     
    #214 The Plowking, Jul 4, 2013
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Dark Sith Sandy

    Defended by the satellite force. In my interpretation of A Satellite image IMISI

    [​IMG]

    Laughing

    We will get 60 to 70 cm on the main range for sure. I will personally measure it on Sunday.

    IMO
     
    #215 7wombathead, Jul 4, 2013
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    There will be drifts of that for sure with the wind.
    If you are going to do that be sure to measure in 10 different areas not in wind loading or exposed areas and average them for us.
    Would be nice to get a real snow depth analysis at the nsw resorts for a change.
    Spencers friggen creek [​IMG]
     
    #216 The Plowking, Jul 4, 2013
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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Free of charge.

    I Duuno

    Buts its all good anyway.

     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The only objective gauge is at Perisher AWS.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    My view is that most of that moisture will miss south. The system is already peaking over SA and it will slide south as the models are showing IMO.
     
  20. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    I think you're looking at the sat pic and presuming that the huge pool of cold air and cloud is going to roll over the top of SE Australia in a clock wise fashion.

    I think you'll find that the majority of the cloud and moisture in that cold pool will skirt the SE Australia as by this time tomorrow we'll be in a straight Westerly flow.
     
  21. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #221 CarveMan, Jul 4, 2013
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  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The sharp point of the change is not being pushed by a ridging high... its rather having its top blown off by crazy winds in the uppers...That Norwester is crazy at 500hpa.
    I'm not sure its sliding south as such... rather its wedging south...
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'll this cold pool its credit...its pushing harder than the models forecast...
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    00z GFS run looking pretty solid for Friday. It will be a pretty direct westerly flow though. IMO
    That is a monster low. Just needs to be a 1000km further to the north.
     
    #224 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2013
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  25. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Keep an eye on the follow-up cold pool that is rocketing towards us from way down South.

    All up, my prediction for Vic this coming week is 35cm IMO.
     
  26. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    500k further north would do
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    While I can see the first front being wedged south ...the second looks game on.
    under the influence of a westerly...
    TWC has some decent 850 temps over nsw on saturday for sure...
     
    #227 Donza, Jul 4, 2013
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Seriously cold uppers over Tasmania, but they just can't get to the mainland.

    [​IMG]
     
    #228 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2013
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Updated SWW from Vic BOM

     
    #229 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2013
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    A cold front is likely to trigger some thunderstorm activity - starting in the southwest coast but extending further inland and eastwards to reach the Central district and West and South Gippsland late today and tonight. A combination of very strong backing winds with height and modest buoyancy may be sufficient to promote rotation in storms and a risk of brief tornadoes in storms nearer the coast. Regardless of this, very strong winds aloft will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storms or heavy showers which develop. Hail is likely with storms although it is likely to be small (1cm or less in diameter).
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting that warning is only available on the thunderstorm forecast which is generally not available. But not noted in the general warnings page.
     
    #231 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2013
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  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]
     
    #232 7wombathead, Jul 4, 2013
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  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]
     
    #233 7wombathead, Jul 4, 2013
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Fair point, however I like to use weatheronline's page to compare various parameters and that's not quite so easy with the BOM AXS website. So I use GFS. I'm not seeing much difference between the models at 12hrs out anyway.
     
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This is not unreasonable. EC is showing 10-15mm/cm for Friday. IMO
     
    #236 Claude Cat, Jul 4, 2013
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  37. freedom

    freedom Hard Yards

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    Looks to be improving a tad [​IMG]
     
    #237 freedom, Jul 4, 2013
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  38. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Defiantly cold enough in tassie . Ben got 15-20cm today & still snowing ! Settling to 1000m & lowering !
     
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of premature frothing in the obs thread.
    Sorry, but I just can't see this being the dump some people are forecasting/expecting.
    In football parlance, this is just a good average system.
    Temps are dropping after last night's front now and the next front should CLIP the mainland late this morning and give another 10 I reckon, all round. Wind will help leeward sides so more accumulation.
    Great Tassie system.
     
  40. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    I observe here that as expected, strong westerlies will ensure that the 2nd embedded cold front will miss the mainland.

    Bummer.
     
    #240 Rush, Jul 5, 2013
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Was always the most likely scenario IMO
     
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Total bummer.

    Oh well, it could have been worst, it could have all been frontal rain.

    The next front is sliding but it may hang in there. It still has a sw movement . We need some luck this winter.

    GFS like it more.

    [​IMG]

    CC sorry for posting GFS chart. It just looks better than the bom.
     
    #242 7wombathead, Jul 5, 2013
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  43. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    IMO it will bring a bit of instability as it passes and will cause a slight increase in the moisture rate for an hour or so but nothing like this mornings.
     
  44. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
     
    #244 Sandy, Jul 5, 2013
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  45. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #245 skiflat, Jul 5, 2013
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  46. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    But you're not heading up skiflat?
     
  47. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #247 skiflat, Jul 5, 2013
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC was showing only a couple of cm for NSW this morning (Saturday - Sunday)
    I don't see anything that would make me think there's a whole lot more to come IMO
     
  49. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Not sure I believe it, but it's generally pretty accurate ?
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00z GFS would have 5cm for Saturday & a dusting on Sunday in NSW IMO