Day to Day SA & Adelaide weather

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,516
3,707
363
Castle Hill - Sydney
had 6.7mm of rain out of that last lot
a huge expanse of thunderstorms over central
australia. looks like thats where they gunna stay.
as far as rain goes expecting a visit from my
mate jack schitt tomorrow.

TH

Yeh, an enormous amount of storms and lightning across the country atm. Sat pic and lightning tracker looks amazing!!
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree

betsuin

Hard Yards
Nov 28, 2020
71
117
33
Magill
This will do nicely:

A4MaJyM.png
 
Jul 19, 2019
147
155
113
Reynella, South Australia
how things have changed, 15 years ago when the
weather was turning to crap everyone including the experts
were saying things will turn back to 'normal' soon....the
way they used to be in the 'good 'ol days' of the 70s 80s
and 90s.
one miserable pathetic lone voice used to purport that
things would not get better and the new norm would be the
garbage weve had the last few summers and the old norm.
would be relegated to the waste bin of spurious anomolies.
40-30 even 20 years ago a setup like this would have had
the paramaters that would have lashed us with explosive
psycho HP thunderstorms and scattered supercells everywhere
from woomera to mt gambier, now its nothing but a lame duck
spineless pile of non-delivering pile of garbage, like pretty much
everything else has been this summer. a couple of meager
bones thrown to us late last year was the only saving grace
to prevent last summer from being relegated to the
unmitigated disaster bin.
as far as the weather for sa goes recent past and future,
what a horrible and gut wrenching end to what used be an
exciting and wonderous life of stormchasing.... it's a bit like lying
there knowing your about to die while you watch your house
burn down.

TH
 
  • Like
Reactions: willitrainagain

skifree

A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 1998
32,016
31,037
1,063
Middle Oz
Yep, let me discover two leaks in the unfinished building I am working on. Well I have not found the leaks, that would be too easy, I just know there is water where it should not be. Bugger.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Seabreezes

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
51
74
18
Hazelwood Park
March 10th to 13th a healthy 13mm. GFS seems to be nailing it long term wise, although certainly not consistent for the event over the forecast period.

GFS on its own for a similar NE set up, 21st -26th 20+ mm.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Seabreezes
Jul 19, 2019
147
155
113
Reynella, South Australia
haha, sorry skifree, i can be a bit cryptic at times......
the previous run of access had huuuuge totals of rain
mainly as hp storrm dumps on a retrograde trough line
east of the ranges, about 3 days of tropical heaven.
even the latest run of models is looking not too bad,
but the big downer is its all east of the ranges with the
really big stuff just over the border in western vic and nsw,
have to see how it pans out, still a way out yet, no huge
predictions of storms, mainly rain at this stage.

TH
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
51
74
18
Hazelwood Park
Yes models are skipping around 21-25th regards Adelaide getting a drop, GFS back to nada and ECMWF 10-15. However the Upper Darling River in particular looks like getting a good replenishment over the next couple of days and also early next week.
 

wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
166
361
163
Flinders Park
haha, sorry skifree, i can be a bit cryptic at times......
the previous run of access had huuuuge totals of rain
mainly as hp storrm dumps on a retrograde trough line
east of the ranges, about 3 days of tropical heaven.
even the latest run of models is looking not too bad,
but the big downer is its all east of the ranges with the
really big stuff just over the border in western vic and nsw,
have to see how it pans out, still a way out yet, no huge
predictions of storms, mainly rain at this stage.

TH
I'll happily take an ëast of the ranges"scenario as my property could do with a decent drink. I'll put up with the inevitable surge in growth of the #$@^% caltrop.

Btw, emptied out 7.8mm on Sunday morning at home.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree
Jul 19, 2019
147
155
113
Reynella, South Australia
at this stage...
unfortunatly looking more east of the border with every run
and adelaide looking closer to 0, the only major beneficiary
in s.a. will be central and eastern areas north of pt augusta.
of course that's for the big stuff, most areas south of the
gutta to get up to ten mm which is marginally better than a
slap in the face with dead lizard.

TH
 

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
51
74
18
Hazelwood Park
GFS now keen for Adelaide Monday 30+mm and ECMWF back to zero. How accurate the GFS model is when taking into account the Mt Lofty Rangers is the question. Determining the location of the trough is a big difference between the models I guess, as the High doesn't seem to be going anywhere in a rush. Big stationary high to the east of Tas directing moisture east which interacts with the troughs and fronts. Hopefully that means bringing a deluge to the Murray Darling Basin for a good environmental flush out and a couple of years storage for the irrigators.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree

Gary Smith

Early Days
Dec 4, 2020
46
54
18
Fairview Park
GFS now keen for Adelaide Monday 30+mm and ECMWF back to zero. How accurate the GFS model is when taking into account the Mt Lofty Rangers is the question. Determining the location of the trough is a big difference between the models I guess, as the High doesn't seem to be going anywhere in a rush. Big stationary high to the east of Tas directing moisture east which interacts with the troughs and fronts. Hopefully that means bringing a deluge to the Murray Darling Basin for a good environmental flush out and a couple of years storage for the irrigators.

Adelaide will receive 3 fifths of f all. Maybe end of next week but who knows.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
51
74
18
Hazelwood Park
Adelaide will receive 3 fifths of f all. Maybe end of next week but who knows.
Yes the models have all backed off, it was about pinpointing the location of the trough. Looking at the satellite you can see the moisture steaming in from the NW along northern SA, and on the radar the movement of showers to the east. Looking at the ranges now you can see the cumulus streaming over the top. Hopefully the Darling gets a good drink. Parts of the Paroo in minor flood.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree

Gary Smith

Early Days
Dec 4, 2020
46
54
18
Fairview Park
Yes the models have all backed off, it was about pinpointing the location of the trough. Looking at the satellite you can see the moisture steaming in from the NW along northern SA, and on the radar the movement of showers to the east. Looking at the ranges now you can see the cumulus streaming over the top. Hopefully the Darling gets a good drink. Parts of the Paroo in minor flood.

Hopefully Menindee Lakes score some inflows after this. Unbelievable how the edge of this system follows the Border almost exactly.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree
Jul 19, 2019
147
155
113
Reynella, South Australia
its done that more than a few times,
whoever set that border seemed to have more
than politics in mind.
certainly looking dry now for the next week or more
here, just sit back and enjoy watching the other states
get trashed with lots of interesting weather and gobs
of water.

TH
 
Jul 19, 2019
147
155
113
Reynella, South Australia
as dramatic as it appears that scenario is not quite correct.
the current nsw coastal event is the interaction of a moist
ne airstream interacting with a trough running along the coast
radar loops show this system is running ne to sw down into
victoria. maximum significanrt penetration of this system has
been around 100-120km and it will not travel inland to to meet
the other nw infeed in a HP showdown over central or western
n.s.w.. the longwave trough from the west is progged to develop
cyclogenesis over nw nsw and start its major dump from there
where the low and trough will then move s.e. and interact, reinvigorate
and enhance the existing degenerating setup to give the eastern
seaboard a second wave of grief.
a bit off topic for s.a. i suppose but but seeing as there is no past,
present or future weather here worth talking about.......

TH
 
  • Like
Reactions: Parklife

Gary Smith

Early Days
Dec 4, 2020
46
54
18
Fairview Park
I always thought the media were the only ones to disregard anything west of the border with SA now it seems the weather has taken a leaf out of the media play book. My god not even 1mm out of this for the southern agricultural areas of SA!
 

wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
166
361
163
Flinders Park
Interesting to see convective type clouds coming in from the east over the last 3 or so days. Not too often that happens as our prevailing weather comes from a westerly direction. It's a pity there wasn't more available moisture to give them some oomph to bring some rain or storms.

Love these sort of ragged cloud lined skies.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skifree
Jul 19, 2019
147
155
113
Reynella, South Australia
back in the good ól days this sort of setup would have been
the precurser and buildup to a massive explosive tropical
HP thunderstorn event with scattered supercells.
now even tropical retrograde systems are screwed up
..... all we get now is far cupped climate change crap and
zilch in the way of anything while we have to sit back and
watch everywhere else steal all our weather.
we may get the odd anomaly here and there which most
people will be highly appreciative of, basically equivalent
to chucking a stale meatless bone to a starving dog.

TH
 

wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
166
361
163
Flinders Park
Anyone game enough to look into the crystal ball for Apr? or should the response be - 'don't bother!"
When I looked at Farmonline weather today, there was a suggestion of a high chance of rain on the 14th. Would that coincide with the MJO passing over allowing something from the NW to interact with a cold front or similar?
Anyway, something to keep an eye on.
 
Jul 19, 2019
147
155
113
Reynella, South Australia
well that system, (and calling it that is being kind),
certainly wiped the wag off my tail.
i consider myself incredibly fortunate and blessed
to have received 2+mm from the passage of the
front, however....having said that a mate of mine
up near meadows copped a bollocking from a
rogue cell and he received quote "almost 8mm in
about 5mins, gutters were waterfalls.... ", and i
guarantee he is not prone to exaggeration.

TH
 

skifree

A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 1998
32,016
31,037
1,063
Middle Oz
5mm in the Exeter gauge this morning.

Dunno where it came from but have been at work in Kent Town for a lot of waking time recently.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Seabreezes
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Learn how membership works on these forums
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass