Day to Day SA & Adelaide weather

Jul 19, 2019
152
159
113
Reynella, South Australia
Hey TH
What are your thoughts for tomorrow for the southern burbs? Are we in for lot's of rain or more wind and tide?
BOM have a SWW for strong wind and higher than usual tides etc
hi purnong, good to hear from ya.
ok just had a look at the charts and they all say the low is
going to pass south of KI through the s.e.s.a. around
ncte. - b/town.
high tides a result of the concentrated s-sw airstream behind the low
at 12am the low has organised the coldpool into a half
decent front and rainband currently sitting over Y.P. - K.I.
and set to get here around sparrow fart. after that tomorrow
cold and windy with showers possibly heavy but the models
have the day as less showers than after sundown when they
will ramp up as we are encompassed in a s-se wraparound.
totals could go quite anal especially around the southern
ranges and strath. area. that includes the south coast from
goolwa to brighton.
the first half of this double tap was rather dissapointing.
hopefully the second half can bring up a decent rear.
all we do now is wait see how it pans out...

TH
 
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Purnong

First Runs
Nov 19, 2020
8
12
3
Tooperang 5255
hi purnong, good to hear from ya.
ok just had a look at the charts and they all say the low is
going to pass south of KI through the s.e.s.a. around
ncte. - b/town.
high tides a result of the concentrated s-sw airstream behind the low
at 12am the low has organised the coldpool into a half
decent front and rainband currently sitting over Y.P. - K.I.
and set to get here around sparrow fart. after that tomorrow
cold and windy with showers possibly heavy but the models
have the day as less showers than after sundown when they
will ramp up as we are encompassed in a s-se wraparound.
totals could go quite anal especially around the southern
ranges and strath. area. that includes the south coast from
goolwa to brighton.
the first half of this double tap was rather dissapointing.
hopefully the second half can bring up a decent rear.
all we do now is wait see how it pans out...

TH

Yeah I don't post much but lurk a lot ;)
Thanks for that mate much appreciated, It will be interesting to see how the day pans out
 

skifree

A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 1998
33,798
35,475
1,063
Middle Oz
2.5mm in the Exeter gauge this morning and still drizzling when I left for work.
 

Gary Smith

Early Days
Dec 4, 2020
48
55
18
Fairview Park
Not wishing to point the finger at any particular Agency; however, how far off the mark were the predictions! Yesterday we had 100% 15 to 25mm, changed this morning to 95% 6 to 20mm and Adelaide recorded 0.4mm! Even the media was reporting heavy rain lashing the state! I realise it is only a forecast; however, surely it could have been a little more accurate, especially from this morning onwards.
 

skifree

A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 1998
33,798
35,475
1,063
Middle Oz
Not wishing to point the finger at any particular Agency; however, how far off the mark were the predictions! Yesterday we had 100% 15 to 25mm, changed this morning to 95% 6 to 20mm and Adelaide recorded 0.4mm! Even the media was reporting heavy rain lashing the state! I realise it is only a forecast; however, surely it could have been a little more accurate, especially from this morning onwards.

I share your disappointment. Really just been 3 days of variable drizzle with a touch of blow here & there time wise. Today’s 0400 blow was done by 0630. So far 6.5mm for the 3 days.

I’m not looking to bag bom, just feel disappointed they cannot be more accurate.
 

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
60
82
18
Hazelwood Park
When I was looking at my freebie models which only update every 6-12 hours, what seemed to be the issue as the updates occurred was the speed of the low west to east movement with respect to the NW trough. After the trough moved West (dumping rain on the Murray basin and catchment) the subsequent coastal crossing point of the low was also in question. If memory serves, the crossing point seemed to keep moving north closer to Adelaide and the wrap around just didn't work out. To this amateur it looked like an off balance Catharine wheel. Totals wise I was hoping for 30-40mm including Sunday and so far 13mm. Satellite wise it does look as though there is more cloud being dragged up from the south which may hit Adelaide during the night, and if the low moves SW in our favour we may be able to jag some nice showers.

Greater Metro Adelaide since 9am today has received between .2 to 5mm and Hills a bit more 5-10mm; previous 24 hours 4-11mm and 15-27mm in the hills. Around 5:30pm today we had a very heavy red core bullseye us with some hail for about 60 seconds. So in terms of BoM criticism, it would appear as though there was an over estimate, but the last event they underestimated so swings and roundabouts.
 

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
60
82
18
Hazelwood Park
Positive news is the potential for a negative IOD developing,
iod graphic.PNG
IOD legend.PNG
 

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
60
82
18
Hazelwood Park
12.5mm this morning taking system total to 22mm. Selfishly I was hoping the development over the Yorke Peninsula was going to happen a bit further east but a slow moving cloud burst over Yorkes is great for the state. As the low pressure trough moves to the North hopefully that can squeeze out another 10mm or so.

20210625_104901.gif
 
Jul 19, 2019
152
159
113
Reynella, South Australia
well here we sit deep in the bowels of winter.
certainly wern't no graceful slide.
more like a slam dunk, kick the door in and a
"hey folks i'm here, sorry im late" sort of introduction.
the sporadic drizzle from low broken cloud has set in.
last night was a fizzer, any vestiges of a southerly fetch
dissapeared over keith and gave them a (for want of a
better expression) 'convergence zone bollocking'
totals have been, for most, ordinary at best but this
wasn't supposed to be a biblical flood, more of a spread
it around and give everyone a bit type of event.
this is/was system number three, and bugger me dead
surprise surprise guess what's coming mid to late next
week, four on the floor and rain all round. my clock has lost
about 2.6 nonoseconds but hey all i have to do is wait for
the next system to come through to set it correct.
models are at odds with each other at the moment.
bom has another cutoff low, (why not, cutoff lows are in
fashion this season), gfs had a boring 'ol bog standard
garden variety cold front. good on ya gfs.
a cold but nice weekend again, weve been lucky so far,
how long before the weekends are crap and the weeks
are fine, the rot starts next weekend by the looks.

TH
( this rant is powered by ECO-RUM... more rum, more rant)
 
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wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
192
484
163
Flinders Park
Yeah I don't post much but lurk a lot ;)
Thanks for that mate much appreciated, It will be interesting to see how the day pans out
Hey Purnong, I remember your username from Wz days, which incidentally I joined 10 years ago. Good to see you on here.

22/6-25/6 I have received 10.4mm, a bit disappointing considering what was forecast a few days ago.

Ah well, you can't control where the lows go, they have minds of their own!

Was hoping for a bit of followup rain for east of the ranges, but didn't happen this time around.
 
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wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
192
484
163
Flinders Park
Total for 22/6-27/6 = 20.2mm. Fairly happy with that. :)

Tracking path of the showers in not conducive of rain east of the ranges though due to the rain shadow effect.

The Murray Mallee & Riverland regions could do with a decent drink to help with the crops (as well as the plantings on my property :))
 
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Jul 19, 2019
152
159
113
Reynella, South Australia
the first part of the system does the usual tripping
over it's shoelaces and falls away to the south but
it does pave the way for the second wave just a pity
the coldpool is not as penetrating as it could/should
be.
system no.1 was excellent for coldpool penetration,
i think theres a good chance we'll get another one or two
like that or better considering we've only just entered
the bowels of winter.

TH
 

wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
192
484
163
Flinders Park
Ok, the June 2021 rainfall figures are as follows :

At home, I recorded a total of 85.5mm over 20 rain days leading to a YTD total of 190.5mm. The monthly total is now the highest June total since I have been living in my current location (7 years) surpassing the previous June high of 83.5mm in 2014. In 2020 the total as at the end of June was 247.5mm courtesy of a wet April.

As a comparison, Adelaide Airport recorded 75.6mm for June vs a June average of 55.7mm. The YTD is sitting on 179.2mm. This compares with an average YTD of 201.6mm (adding up the monthly averages for Jan to Jun), so a reasonable quantity behind. In 2020 at the end of June, the total was sitting on 213.6mm.

We'll see what July brings. Last July, the airport recorded only 15.0mm vs the average of 55.7mm.

Unfortunately, I don't have any monthly rainfall figures for the airport during the period Mar 2014 to Oct 2019.

If anyone can tell me where I can find them, that would be much appreciated.
 

skifree

A disciple of the blessed avi giraffe
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 1998
33,798
35,475
1,063
Middle Oz
0.5mm in the Exeter gauge this morning. A little underwhelming so far.
 

wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
192
484
163
Flinders Park
Recorded 0.5, 4.4 & 7.5mm for the first 3 days of July = 12.4mm.

Yesterday's recording of 4.4mm is not an accurate recording as it was taken at 7:05am and it was still raining steadily for a while after that.

I have used an approximation based on the rainfall for Adelaide Airport for the last 2 days and an approximate total for yesterday would be 8.6mm & this morning 3.3mm.

Adelaide Airport's July to date is 11.0mm.

Anyway, it's a good start to July.
 

Parklife

Early Days
Jan 23, 2021
60
82
18
Hazelwood Park
20.5mm from July 2 event. Those systems impacting the West being impeded by those bloody Highs, hopefully next week there's enough grunt in the fronts to push past the coastline.
 
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betsuin

Hard Yards
Nov 28, 2020
83
135
33
Magill
20.5mm from July 2 event. Those systems impacting the West being impeded by those bloody Highs, hopefully next week there's enough grunt in the fronts to push past the coastline.
yes, very :-( we don't get a repeat this end of week.
Third Creek is at good flow!!
 
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Jul 19, 2019
152
159
113
Reynella, South Australia
ahh the blue screen of death, dontchalovit
ok so who threw the banana peels into the bight, everything
that 's coming at us is slipping arse over head and going
south as it gets to us, looks like we will only get pain in the
butt remnants, a real mish mash, hodge podge, dogs
breakfast of half baked systems that have smashed the
daylights out of w.a. and are well and truly stuffed by the
time they get here.
never mind, the break and fine weather... albeit cold, is easy
to get along with. just have to sit back and wait for round 2.

TH
 
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