Day to Day SA & Adelaide weather

Jul 19, 2019
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Reynella, South Australia
overcast with light drizzle on and off, enough to
dampen the concrete but can still walk on it without
getting socks wet. still a desert in the bottom of
the gauge. mate at meadows has had 7mm so far.
one can be forgiven we're in an early autumn,
all this does is soften us up for another heat shock
later on down the track.

TH
 

FarmWeather

Hard Yards
Nov 26, 2020
41
52
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A20F07A4-AC73-42A6-A4C8-BE08463B3153.png
 

Parklife

Hard Yards
Jan 23, 2021
86
133
83
Hazelwood Park
Well happy new year to you all; for my new years eve I was presented with a positive covid test and 10 days quarantine to start 2022; not much fun I can tell you.

Last year my gauge beat the local Burnside station average, with both June and July particularly impressive.

2021.PNG
 
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Parklife

Hard Yards
Jan 23, 2021
86
133
83
Hazelwood Park
Below average temp and above average rain for Southern Australia they said. I take it SA is not included in Southern SA given we are on average for Temp and way below average on rainfall for December.
Yes the forecast for the last qtr of 21 SA wise was not totally on the mark;
lower temperatures and a wetter October and November - tick,
lower temperature December - tick, lower than average rain - cross.

On the bright side they were on the mark for the Murray Darling basin, and the inflows to SA reflect this with the highest inflows to SA late December 2021 since Dec 21 2016.

I am just a mug punter with the forecasts, but with LaNina there always seems to be caveats regards SA, particularly regarding rainfall. In my experience (with the aid of the stack of information available via meteorological sites) the main driver for us folks in the driest state in the driest continent is the IOD - Indian Ocean Dipole. Negative IOD tends to be positive for us, if you like rainfall that is. The following is the BoM actual and predicted for the last couple/coming months.
iod Jan 22.PNG
 
Jul 19, 2019
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Reynella, South Australia
the main driver-s affecting us are, IOD, SAM, SOI and IOR
the eastern states la nina enhanced longwave trough is set
to finally retrograde enough to affect us.
this is shaping up to be trophy class stormchasing material.
at this stage we may get some dribblle starting tueesday
but the big stuff will come from wed on.
shaping up to be a nice little extended tropical interlude, its
touch and go as to whether it rolls over to saturday or not.
hopefully it does.
situation too volatile atm worry about specifics, go into it a
few days down the track.

TH
 
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Jul 19, 2019
192
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Reynella, South Australia
my lawn had a nice drink too but not anything from the sky.
only had 4.5mm from the cool spell.
mate up at meadows had 36mm from fog and drizzle over
the few days it lasted.
the potential for any tropical interlude and associated
storms has evaporated with the heat. should have known
it was too good to be true.
meanwhile the east coast continues to get bollocked.
 
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wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
246
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263
Flinders Park
my lawn had a nice drink too but not anything from the sky.
only had 4.5mm from the cool spell.
mate up at meadows had 36mm from fog and drizzle over
the few days it lasted.
the potential for any tropical interlude and associated
storms has evaporated with the heat. should have known
it was too good to be true.
meanwhile the east coast continues to get bollocked.
think yourself lucky with that 4.5mm as I only recorded 0.7mm to open 2022 rainfall account!
 
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Peli89

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 12, 2015
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Adelaide West Terrace current maximum temp of 25.7, while mount lofty is sitting over 30 degrees. It's not very often you would see a temperature difference with Mt Lofty being warmer.

The westerly winds must be keeping temps nice and low...

It's also quite humid outside at the moment with dewpoints around 18 degrees.
 

Parklife

Hard Yards
Jan 23, 2021
86
133
83
Hazelwood Park
BoM updated their forecast at midday, forecasted high now 31 and Slight (20%) chance of a shower this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms about the hills later this afternoon and evening, with possible gusty winds, heavy rainfall and hail.
 
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Bluestorm

First Runs
Jan 12, 2022
2
6
3
Had my first proper Adelaide chase today.

My first stop was Nuriootpa thinking I could take a break at McDonalds and decide my next step. Well by the time I got there and refreshed the radar the storms had already formed and were on the move.

I blasted to Blanchetown and just caught up to the cell outside of the town but called it quits there.

I visually did not see much lighting but the inflow of wind of was very nice. Learnt heaps for next time.

chase120122.png
20220112_184847.jpg

20220112_171714.jpg
 
Jul 19, 2019
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Reynella, South Australia
sorry skifree, bit late on that one, yer good
chance east of the ranges....lol.
i came within a hairs breath of chasing yeaterday.
i'm so over work, there were some amazing cells out
there, ifi had gone out i would have done my usual
park at murray bridge and when the Lake Alexandrina
cell went up would have been all over it like flies on
shit all the way to the border.
although the riverland system may have been more
widespread and overall better it was way too busy with
multiple cells doing crazy stuff everywhere and
bordering on rainout... not that i as there to worry about
it anyway.
tuesday was pretty good too not that far behind yeaterday
especially riverland area.
looking forward (probably too far) all 3 models have us
(the gulf area and EP) on the bottom of the longwave trough
and sets us up for a somewhat interesting scenario to say the
least late next week/sat.
it also appears the indian ocean/bight ridge may be backing
off a bit, for the short term future anyway, and allowing
the northern heat trough and associated tropical moisture
pool to penetrate down to us, fingers crossed.
if it does we should be able to get a taste of the bollocking
storms westerm NSW and NW vi.c (and eastern s.a.) have
been getting..
im not a superstitious person but having said all they i've
probably gone and put the moccas on the whole bloody lot....

TH
 
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Jul 19, 2019
192
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Reynella, South Australia
great pics FW, nice to have something here to look at other
than text.
looking at the radar you not the only one that got smashed,
u at wynarka if i remember rightly,
as far as latest saturday 12z model runs for next weekend
goes ec and gfs are comatose and access has overdosed
on crack. if access comes off its going to be the mega
stormchase from hell.
things should settle well before then.

TH
 
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Jul 19, 2019
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Reynella, South Australia
latest 12z run...
it appears that EC and GFS have awoken from their slumber,
ACCESS is still hyperventilating on its pipe and handed it to
EC by the looks.
the mottled nature of the red areas indicates some seriously
widespread HP storms.
gfs is somewhat more conservative and seemingly realistic.
it shows 45+ pwats and gobs of lowlevel moisture which
confirms HP storms tending to rainout.
forecast soundings for the mid north show bugger all cap,
(which means early risers), AAANND a bloody low LCL of 3000'.
i could go on and on, i think by posting here im trying to
convince myself more than anyone else, this is seriously
droolable stuff and although east of the ranges has seen
some action already this seems to be more widespread.
the best part is its shaping up for next weekend which
means locked and loaded for a chase.
BRING..................IT...............ONNNNNN!!!!!

TH
 
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wernerk

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
246
665
263
Flinders Park
latest 12z run...
it appears that EC and GFS have awoken from their slumber,
ACCESS is still hyperventilating on its pipe and handed it to
EC by the looks.
the mottled nature of the red areas indicates some seriously
widespread HP storms.
gfs is somewhat more conservative and seemingly realistic.
it shows 45+ pwats and gobs of lowlevel moisture which
confirms HP storms tending to rainout.
forecast soundings for the mid north show bugger all cap,
(which means early risers), AAANND a bloody low LCL of 3000'.
i could go on and on, i think by posting here im trying to
convince myself more than anyone else, this is seriously
droolable stuff and although east of the ranges has seen
some action already this seems to be more widespread.
the best part is its shaping up for next weekend which
means locked and loaded for a chase.
BRING..................IT...............ONNNNNN!!!!!

TH
Was just about going to comment on next weekend as I've just had a look at Access G3, GFS & EC rainfall predictions for then. All seem to have something for central SA (longitudinally speaking) Fri/Sat.
My knowledge about the technical aspects of the weather is fairly limited so I do the best I can in trying to understand them.

Re the storms during last week, I received 15.8mm at Ponde which, judging from the soil being washed downhill and the loose gravel debris on the road, must have been quite heavy. The vegetation this year is looking pretty good with periodic top ups of moisture and not too extreme heat. The downside of summer rainfall is that it sends the caltrop into overdrive :(

There must have been some strong winds around as there were some broken branches but thankfully no trees blown over.

Thickest branch that I could see was ca 6cm in diameter - was of a eucalypt which was loaded with flower buds and I had been waiting for nearly 2 years for the buds to open. It's still attached and the flowers have just started to open, so will see how much of the buds will open.

The property has got away lightly judging from what FW has posted.

I remember from the radar at the time that it was only a short sharp shower, but the cell was red-black in colour. Must have developed a bit more on its way east.

So, for 2022, home rainfall 0.7mm, Ponde 15.8mm, something you don't see very often at all.
 

Bluestorm

First Runs
Jan 12, 2022
2
6
3
Next week is looking very interesting for sure. The next question is where and when?

I think the GFS & EC are showing Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with widespread activity. I've got my eye on the Riverland's again but will see what the next few model runs show.
 
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Jul 19, 2019
192
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Reynella, South Australia
latest gfs 00z high res has storm max over eastern
riverland down to my 'ol stomping ground, if it
comes off there the way it shows at the moment
it should be pretty good. lots of pre rain on fri sat
to wet the atmosphere, timing is a bit off atm
with max on sunday but the way its shaping up
work will have to play second fiddle.

TH
 
Jul 19, 2019
192
203
113
Reynella, South Australia
i'm pretty much over it
the best is shifting to the west and ep.
well get some rain but i wont be holding my breath
for anything spectacular in the way of storms.
and its going later with every run, nothing now
until sunday, as it gets closer our cop will probably
move into early next week until right up to the
point where its nothing now period.

TH
 
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Jul 19, 2019
192
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Reynella, South Australia
looks nice PL but the problem is models are swinging
wildly betweeen 00z and 12z runs, not a good sign,
it really is a lucky dip as to what really eventuates in
the final analysis, the bottom line comes down to the
point that somewhere it's going to rain in sa over the
weekend, exactly where, when, and how much is any
ones guess and the way the models are handling this
only the final analysis will reveal the truth.
west of YP is the current flavour of the run.

TH
 
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Parklife

Hard Yards
Jan 23, 2021
86
133
83
Hazelwood Park
heres a classic example of ECs tripe,
that's about as screwed up as i've ever seen.
notwithstanding the bs rainfall amount look
at the trace of the 576 line.
id love to see forecast soundings for this.

TH
Yes I take your point about the wild swing between runs.

As for the 576 line, you will definitely need to help this novice, I'm pretty sure its a contour of the 500 hPa pressure i.e. ht above Mean sea level at which atmospheric pressure is 500 hPa, but its shape (cant really tell on your graphic) and relevance? Here's an image I have for ECMWF at same forecast time.

18-1 1030am 500hPa 28-1.PNG
 
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Parklife

Hard Yards
Jan 23, 2021
86
133
83
Hazelwood Park
ECMWF moving out to Sunday morning, GFS not arriving at all and staying out west with Access G the same. Various other models with scenarios in between. The Murdoch press reporting a tropical deluge, which will probably put the mockers on it.
23-1 emcwf.PNG
 
Jul 19, 2019
192
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113
Reynella, South Australia
it's a thickness line PL.
A thickness line is the vertical distance in meters between
two pressure levels. On these models the line denotes the
thickness in meters of the atmosphere between 1000 and
500 millibars. The 1000 to 500 mb thickness is a function
of two properties, (1) the average temperature of the air
between 1000 and 500 millibars and (2) the average moisture
content of the air between 1000 and 500 millibars. These

two properties are combined together to produce the virtual
temperature Therefore, thickness is a function of the average
virtual temperature between 1000 and 500 millibars. So the
less the thickness the overall cooler the atmosphere is and
vice versa. the lines are normally faint black lines but there's
a 'HOT' line and a 'COLD' line. As a rule if thumb the hot
line in clear conditions will give us high 30s to 40 and the
cold purple line is good for snow at sea level and is 520 i think.
Many other factors integrate with this parameter to form an
accurate overview of a current forecast.
in relation to the chart that's posted, trace the red line, it cuts
right down through the low and moisture pool.....URK.

TH
 
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