Day to Day SA & Adelaide weather

[Robbie0404]

Unfortunately the warm/cold front that was expected to hit us has died out without slightest of a whimper but in its place for Friday is a nice cold front of 991hpa which should bring a breezy and soggy weekend but nothing in the way decent falls like what is going to be experienced once again in NSW but still some extra moisture to soften up the ground again

Looking ahead to next week WZ has the LSE penned in for 5-10 mms on Wednesday with a chance of Thunderstorms however its still 9 days out so plenty of time for that forecast to change before we go to a low chance of anywhere between 0-2 mms for start of June and temps in the mid teens

 

[FarmWeather]

 

[FarmWeather]

Guess it just shows current state of ridginess and highs to dominate in what I call transition month to more winter systems sometimes it’s April sometimes it may the transition month. Heaven help us sometimes june

 

[Robbie0404]

Guess it just shows current state of ridginess and highs to dominate in what I call transition month to more winter systems sometimes it’s April sometimes it may the transition month. Heaven help us sometimes june

At this stage i am tipping towards as you quoted "Heaven help us sometimes June " FarmWeather although going by wz rainfall outlook early June doesnt look too good for start of the month so fingers cross the transition doesnt extend over June and into July

 

[Robbie0404]

*Hello anyone in here ?* starting to get some reasonable but fairly light rainfall numbers here in the SE not exactly season breaking but nonetheless gives hope of a bumper growing season still expecting about 2-5 mms over the weekend before the new high becomes a dominant feature

I did however notice another cold/warm front as pictured in the screenshot below currently off the coast of WA it's also wrapping around itself unlike the one from last week of which pretty much died out however its still too early to say if it will have any direct impact on SA although wz is pointing to 10-20mms week after next on Tuesday 24/05/2022 so best to sit back and see what happens

 

[wernerk]

and another 6.5mm on Monday morning brings the May to date total to 24.3mm....
Meanwhile out at Ponde, probably pretty well stuff all I would think.

Don't need that 10-20mm during the week of 23/5 as I will be doing some astronomy during the week and will need clear, preferably dry skies. Murphy's Law will probably prevail....

 

[skifree]

Every day this week I’ve looked out the window and been hopeful to no avail. It’s all someone else’s weather going somewhere else.

 

[FarmWeather]

and another 6.5mm on Monday morning brings the May to date total to 24.3mm....
Meanwhile out at Ponde, probably pretty well stuff all I would think.

Don't need that 10-20mm during the week of 23/5 as I will be doing some astronomy during the week and will need clear, preferably dry skies. Murphy's Law will probably prevail....

Got friends north of mannumn and another spot copeville actually dryer in 22 than the horrid start to 21. We’re going ok with storms in jan feb and spotty patchy stuff Adelaide cup Monday southern mallee pinaroo etc going great

 

[FarmWeather]

Hard to find any excitement until maybe something 25/26th

 

[skifree]

We had rain overnight in Kent Town.

 

[Robbie0404]

Hard to find any excitement until maybe something 25/26th

You might be right about that FarmWeather although I am more leaning towards June when winter starts but at this stage we need a really solid and strong cold front to push these dominating high pressure systems away and keep them away for anything worth getting excited over happening

Going by the BOM 4 day synoptic chart even after this high pressure system of which will dominate our weather from late Tuesday until Sunday we've got another trough with moisture in it wz rainfall outlook is projecting at least 5-10 mms on the 24th after 2 days of nice/warm 20 degrees however there appears to be another high coming inbound so the pattern continues

A nice windstorm with gusts in excess of 120km/h at night or even a classic strong cutoff low would be nice right about now to break this monotonous cycle of boring as bat poop weather

 

[betsuin]

Drove to Encounter Bay this arvo .. a few light showers.
1mm in the gauge here at home in Magill on return.
Nothing huge obviously, Still feels nice and damp..

 

[skifree]

1&3/4mm in the Exeter gauge this morning, a few light showers today.

Getting nicely cold.

 

[wernerk]

Another 4.8mm in the last 5 days brings the May to date total to 29.1mm.

My partner thought she saw lightning to the northwest on our morning walk today. Would have been sheet lightning if it was there. I didn't see anything and it was a bit hard to see the cloud structure clearly but there appeared to have been a large cumulus cloud.

The planets were visible during gaps in the clouds. Saturn is now almost overhead (6am), while the distance visually between Jupiter and Venus is increasing with Venus speeding towards the horizon. The gap between Mars and Jupiter seems to be decreasing somewhat, but I need a few more observations to be sure.

 

[FarmWeather]

 

[skifree]

Hmmm, just looked at the charts, regular programming for the next week. Bugger.

Leave the irrigation on, proceed with external painting, wash the car, do the washing every day should all be pretty safe.

 

[Robbie0404]

Checked wz rainfall outlook for next week down this way earlier I'm pretty sure BOM is huffing the green stuff again as they are projecting 20-40 mms for the LSE next Friday followed up by 5-10 on Saturday now watch that drop down like always unless there's something we don't know yet

 

[FarmWeather]

This was this morning I’m actually half keen but dust or dust storms even will check when I get home

 

[skifree]

Just a riffle.

 

[FarmWeather]

Think I got multiple uploads there fix when I get home

 

[Robbie0404]

Late next week does look interesting that's for sure FarmWeather it will all come down to how strong this event is its timing in terms of arrival to each part of the state one can guess it is going to be very blowy if dust storms up north are a possibility

I can recall we had a similar weather set up during early August 2019 only difference on that occasion is that the event was purely a windstorm with minimal rainfall whereas this instance 20-40 mms is projected so at this stage its best to wait and see what happens next

 

[Robbie0404]

Murphy's law strikes again with the 20-40 next Friday downgraded to 5-10 mms although given it's still early days there's a chance it will be upgraded again just wait and see game at present

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

nice set of charts there FW
not referring to what they are showing but the actual charts themselves,
you went to a bit of trouble to put them up... good stuff.
as to what they are showing well that's good too.
robbie sometimes one needs to huff the green when looking at
those bloody models, their favourite pieces of playground
equipment are the see saw and swing.
GFS used to be the one that always had the hots for a bollocking
but now is the conservative one. now latley EC is the one getting
carried away... looks like EC has raided GFSs stash while ACCESS
just sits on the fence taking the middle road.
it seems the days of a possible indian summer are gone. IMO an
indian summer is the fine mild spell that occours after the initial
major break of the season. anywhere from a couple of days to a
couple of weeks.
of course we havnt had a major break... yet. so that still may come.
all we have had is dribs and drabs so far and thinking back there
may have been some assembelance of an indian summer but i
may have blincked and missed it.
which ever way you look at it next weekend is looking to be crap
weatherwise. ec has us for a good penetrating coldpool which
should give us the usual pattern of embedded shotgun showers.
but the usual thing occuring is the lack of significant NW baroclinic
infeeds. what does come through to us is as weak as piss and has
little effect on the systems coming up from the south. the IOD
really needs to step up to the mark and lift its game and at the
moment according to one reliable forecaster this is starting to occur
now but its going to take time to wind up and get cranking so dont be
expecting too much before the second half of this year.
that will also give time for the highs to bugger off up north so the
polar pulses (diferent from the SAM) can push further and harder north.
just like waves come in sets at a certain point on the beach so the polar
pulses occur at certain points along the aus. coastline, looking at the
charts the next set is looking to start around wednesday and last for
the best part of more than a week.
my cumulative totals for the last "set" was 7.5mm, not spectacular but
better than nothing.
jeeze look how much i've written... i need to get a life.

TH

 

[FarmWeather]

Great write up mate

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

thanks FW...
looking at the latest run EC still has the hots for a decent coldpool,
i hope it holds, at least if were going to get crap weather it will be decent crap weather rather than some of the crap crap weather we've been getting
although that last decent coldpool was certainly something to be sneezed at
that's for sure.
on a lighter note, WTF is with this weekend, is this our indian summer?
if its not an indian summer what could we call it?...
maybe we could call it the mid system S.A.P.S. (South Australian Pusedo
Summer).or even the inter-set SAPS. whatever it is it needs to be enjoyed.
robbie don't you have a 2 day outdoor CFS training exercise next
weekend

TH

 

[Robbie0404]

robbie don't you have a 2 day outdoor CFS training exercise next
weekend

Unfortunately I had to let that side of my life go over 3 years ago due to political bs on brigade level as one member who held a grudge against me for no reason aside from that I wasn't a farmer got the whole brigade to gang up on me Thunda but had a good run of 20 years I'm becoming more busier with coast guard radio monitoring and plan on shaking up the local council landscape later this year by taking another shot at sorby adams ward councilor position again

Looking ahead the weather situation is shaping up to be an interesting one late this week and early next week could see anything between 10-15 or 20-40 mms although we should keep a close eye on the unfolding weather over in WA as Perth has been given a severe thunderstorm warning for destructive winds and heavy rain

There's an off chance providing no high pressures sneak in suddenly that we may see a strong cold front with potentially destructive winds early next week although this will probably change like the weather has done lately

the IOD
really needs to step up to the mark and lift its game and at the
moment according to one reliable forecaster this is starting to occur
now but its going to take time to wind up and get cranking so dont be
expecting too much before the second half of this year.

I am leaning towards week 2 or 3 of June for the IOD to start cranking up then shift from Go-Woah resulting in SA getting smashed by strong cutoff lows and toppling windstorms

 

[skifree]

Dunno about this late this week forecast, the blocking highs just look so solid.

 

[Homer]

Dunno about this late this week forecast, the blocking highs just look so solid.

Follow this thread. Snow based but might give some decent info.

Predictions - 29th May - 2nd June Polar Opener

Let's get this party started. I think there's enough in this that we have a system on our hands, now. Speculation, forecasts and detailed discussion only. Stay on topic. Backed (w/ trend) on EC Ensembles (00z): EC (00Z) suggesting the IOD's IVT (moisture) feed is on standby:

www.ski.com.au

 

[FarmWeather]

Look ok to me 12mm plus by next Tuesday will take It.Totals depend on penetration of next weekends cold air and associated shhowers

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

sorry to hear about that robbie, i know u liked cfs.
good to see u looking at other stuff.
models have changed a bit now. still in for a swipe on wed
but backing off till next week with a fine...ish next weekend
things are looking somewhat... well wet would be one way
to describe it for mid next week,
ec has a plain cutoff low that gives good rainfall totals but
the usual coastal penetration only with inland doing
the miss out.
access has a bollicking nw infeed interacting with a cutoff low
moving in from the west to give good rainfall totals penetrating
further inland. and higher rainfall totals overall.
gfs along the lines of ec with a sniff of nw infeed and a snort
of coldpool thrown in for good measure to increase totals and
penetration.
the general trend seems to be increasing levels of moisture as
we progress further into winter. if the weathermans observations
are on the mark then we may very well be looking at a very wet
end to winter and hopefully a wet and stormy spring.
it appears this current system approaching us peaks out west
and falls in the usual heap as it goes past us.....

TH

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

FW this weekend is looking finer by the run, hell its only
tuesday now, by the time we get there the weather will
probably end up like last weekend...
whats your subsoil moisture situation at the moment?
nice big fat juicy blob of cloud in the bight full of water
and lightning going to the south of us dumping all of its
fresh water and electrocuting all those fish out in the bight
similar to those ones earlier on in the year that went east
west and north of us.

TH

 

[FarmWeather]

FW this weekend is looking finer by the run, hell its only
tuesday now, by the time we get there the weather will
probably end up like last weekend...
whats your subsoil moisture situation at the moment?
nice big fat juicy blob of cloud in the bight full of water
and lightning going to the south of us dumping all of its
fresh water and electrocuting all those fish out in the bight
similar to those ones earlier on in the year that went east
west and north of us.

TH

We are half done seeding marginal moisture but still is moisture green paddocks. Only have to go 16 kms east Karoonda dry as a dingos donger and north the same bowhill and north north of mannumn crap shoot as well as bad as same time as last year. I’m still hanging predicting 15 mm by this time next week. The complainers will be out by Friday wheres the rain it’s sun Monday you buffoons not today tonight tommorow any in the time period will be bonus points 2 to 5 max for me

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

gfs, ec and access all have sunday on as a major player in
the rainfall stakes with most areas up for 1-2 inches.
ec has a cutoff low with a slingshot coldpool and best
rainfall hugging the coast.
access aggrees with ec but woth a bit more rainall in the
upper mid north and flinders.
gfs has a broader coldpool and much better rainall penetration.
gunna be interesting thats 4 sure.

TH

 

[betsuin]

Bring on the rain! I'm waiting!! BSCH GFS looks promising
Third Creek is yet to flow, fingers crossed this will wet the upper catchments.

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

WOOOOOOW...
check out the split in the storms as they approach adelaide...
it reminds me of moses and the parting of the waters...
how cool is that!

TH

 

[FarmWeather]

Someone’s gotta be getting 4 to 8 mm from that lot. Predictive radar which I reckon is cool just has me getting dregs around midday 2 to 3 touch wood. Entree till sun mon

 

[skifree]

Nice steady rain here in Kent Town this morning.

 

[Robbie0404]

WOOOOOOW...
check out the split in the storms as they approach adelaide...
it reminds me of moses and the parting of the waters...
how cool is that!

TH

Bring on the IOD change to negative Thunda that's when we'll be sitting back and wondering what just hit us like a cat involved in a hit and run with another cat and sits there thinking did someone catch the license plate of the cat that just hit me

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

double WOOOOOOW...
got the rainband this morning (which was seriously freakin
noice) and expected bugger all after the back edge but...
then i got blobbed... big time,
a nice little follow up behind the back edge and heavy too,
so far up to now, 5pm, 12.6mm for me... very noice.
after a pew forts i'm happy as a shig in pit.

TH

 

[FarmWeather]

7 mm a hour ago

 

[betsuin]

Well it rained - I didn't cycle.
May I not cycle the rest of the week!
6.5mm in the rain gauge this evening

 

[FarmWeather]

Snow near me yeah right but means it’s gonna be brass monkey weather if nothing else

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

well aint this just a fine kettle of fish!
4 days out and these charts are falling into seriously savage alignment.
i think if there's going to be a break to the season then this is gunna be it.
at the moment models have me for 2+inches in a 24 hr period...
my bottom lip is beginning to quiver at the sight of these models.
every time iv'e looked at these models for the last few days they
have upgraded a smidgen.
timing of arrival is a bit variable ranging from sundown to midnight
sunday and extending through monday.
the presence of a coldpool will increase the misery factor.
next run please...

TH

 

[Robbie0404]

well aint this just a fine kettle of fish!
4 days out and these charts are falling into seriously savage alignment.
i think if there's going to be a break to the season then this is gunna be it.
at the moment models have me for 2+inches in a 24 hr period...
my bottom lip is beginning to quiver at the sight of these models.
every time iv'e looked at these models for the last few days they
have upgraded a smidgen.
timing of arrival is a bit variable ranging from sundown to midnight
sunday and extending through monday.
the presence of a coldpool will increase the misery factor.
next run please...

TH

Yes it is looking particularly savage indeed Thunda I had to do a 2 part announcement for the current weather situation as part of my marine weather forecasting on VHF 22 this is what I had to read out

A high pressure system over the northern Bight will move slowly eastwards over the north of South Australia later in the week and to the east early Sunday. Weak fronts will move over the south of the State on Friday and Saturday, and then a more significant cold front will move over the west of the State later Sunday and the remainder of the State on Monday. This cold front will bring colder conditions with freshening northerly winds ahead of the front, shifting fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly in its wake

If the words fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly winds doesn't put a chill down anyone's spine then the possibility of a severe weather warning for damaging winds will

 

[betsuin]

15mm in my gauge now.
With a bit of luck the creeks will start flowing after this next system.

 

[ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ]

according to the news tonight...
WE'RE ALL DOOMED.
all i can say is "about time, bring it on"...

TH

 

[betsuin]

WE'RE ALL DOOMED.

Bloody Hell - 2012 and it is already 2022 - I don't really wanna say better late than never!!

 

[skifree]

according to the news tonight...
WE'RE ALL DOOMED.
all i can say is "about time, bring it on"...

TH

Looks quite nice outside the window at present.

But should i not do the washing & breakout a jigsaw?

 

[skifree]

Hmmm, showers, lucky I have lotsa car port jobs on standby for damp days.

Some lovely cu build up over to the West at lunch gathering time.

 

[skifree]

PS 4mm in the Exeter gauge this morning.