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SE AUS Autumn Weather: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 28, 2011.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well, after the summer that never was, we're starting Autumn in a similar vein.
    Looks to be a coolish week with odd showers in Melbourne. Perhaps moderately warm over the weekend. Look at the minimum temperatures - they've certainly cooled down!
    There doesn't appear to be any massive rain events in the pipeline on the models, but it doesn't look like we're going to get an Indian summer either!
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Looks like more of the same to me. Cant see a big high taking over, I can only see the monsoon ITCZ shifting north in a couple of months time and allowing more fronts (which have been absent all summer pretty much) to affect us. Depending on how far that shifts will depend on the amount of moisture available to us from the tropics over winter. I fear it will be significant and lead to rain events between the snow which will result in an average or below average snow season. I also believe the La Nina will continue and will not weaken significantly as some people are suggesting.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    IMO La Nina will continue until at least early winter, probably longer.
    We can hope it's strength drops off a little.
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    +7 is OK with me.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    It's around 22.4 (30 day value) at the moment!
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Too high for my liking. Been like that for a while too.
     
  7. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Should I expect snow for Queens Birthday weekend?
     
  8. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    currently 36 in Perth. want any of ours?
     
  9. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    35C for brissy tomorrow. Yuck.
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Sucks to be your balls in that heat!

    Looks like a little bit of thunder activity on the ranges and to the E this arvo, not a bad pickup for some areas.
     
  11. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Is there a good time to be balls?
     
  12. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    i can think of a few...

    [​IMG]
     
    #12 h2oskier, Feb 28, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    stay on topic.
     
  14. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    and in a turnaround of weather, after hitting a max of 39.2 in Perth today, we are currently experiencing torrential and horizontal rain and hail.

    its dark brown on the BoM radar which Ive never seen before.
     
  15. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    This is SE Aus weather... go to the Perth thread [​IMG]

    These weakish fronts can be somewhat surprising in their moisture content.
     
    #15 ice_man, Mar 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    What is everyones thoughts on the BOM's stance that La Nina will weaken in the coming months which will result in more average rainfall? I think it will weaken and I think it there will be more average rainfall (however with some large falls still around) but im not sure how well linked the 2 are going to be. I think the movement of the ITCZ northwards as the monsoon trough recedes will be the telling factor, not a drop in the SOI value. They also mention that the higher than normal tropical influence has produced the higher than average rainfall, which while I agree with I dont think it's the whole story. IIRC we have not had a proper cold front passage and associated rain system for a long time now, they can still bring serious moisture with them.

    I guess in the end ive never seen an autumn setup like this after such a wet summer since ive been following the weather so it is all learning for me and it will be interesting to see how close my predictions are to the actual.
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Oh, and I think the 9th/10th is a good chance for another good fall with some places >50mm on the Weds/Thurs and into Friday.
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Not SE Aus but Mornington Island in the Gulf just putting down >450mm in the last 24 hours. Not bad!
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    I expect the SOI to drop a bit, down from the 20s, but I still expect it to be strong positive for most of winter.
    Both ACCESS and EC have rain around 9th & 10th, but at 264 hours out, I'm still sitting this one out for a bit. Extended GFS doesn't share the love either.
     
  20. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #20 Rush, Mar 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #21 Stratus, Mar 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Not much change there to what we've seen in the past 6 months, for the SE anyways.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    EC and ACCESS firming up rain for Monday / Tuesday in Melbourne next week. Another trough.
    EC showing around 20mm (and has been consistent with this prediction for a couple of days now) and ACCESS is similar.
    GFS shows nothing, though.
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Very interesting in their divergence. Almost all summer all models have been similar and accurate. Either GFS has strayed so far on this one, or the other 2 have it wrong.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    So we get a break for a few days from tropical influences and troughs and we get brushed with cold front after cold front. Too bad if you like sunny and still mid 20's with low humidity this summer.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Decidedly chilly for this time of year.
     
  27. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Ground cooling [​IMG]
     
    #27 Stratus, Mar 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    [​IMG]
     
    #28 Claude Cat, Mar 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Looks like there might be rain from Tuesday for Melb. Possibly a fair bit.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Yeh, EC still going for around 20mm. ACCESS still on board, but GFS still not seeing much in it.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    GFS finally coming into line with EC

    [​IMG]
     
    #31 Claude Cat, Mar 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    I think 30mm will be about it. More on the ranges. Drove to Echuca this weekend and ive never seen it so wet and green.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    AXS also hinting at more rain Thursday week.
     
  34. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    excellent...i was nearly going to have to water my grass

    verdant is the only word i can think of to describe regional vic right now
     
  35. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    i am loving the charts for next weekend. In melbourne for a week for moomba ski event. hopefully we dont see a repeat of white water rafting down flinders st like last year!
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Yeah a good long weekend would be perfect for me too.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    EC now showing almost 50mm for Melbourne for Tuesday/Wedenday , GFS not far behind.
    EC also showing rainfall for Wednesday week.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    So EC and AXS now showing something good in a week's time too. Back to the old weekly rain events are we?
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    yup.
     
  40. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: SE AUS Autumn Weater: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

    Starting to use water from the tanks!

    Need rain

    [​IMG]
     
    #40 skiflat, Mar 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Need to change the thread title to the correct spelling too.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only took us what a week to see it!
     
  44. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes 3 fine days for longweekend please.
    Mulhe on sat night was still/starry and mild.A very pleasant weekend.
    Good to see that your keeping C/C focused!!

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] Thought that was reference to esky related activities!! [​IMG]
     
    #44 Ubiquitous Steve, Mar 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Leading to winter... where we see at least two per week!

    For whatever reason I can't see too much in this one besides in far western Victoria.
     
    #45 ice_man, Mar 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont want to see any rain events like this in winter! I want cold fronts not tropically-influenced deluges (sp?)!
     
  47. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah, I'm thinking / scared / being a murphyist that 2011 will be the year of the washout...certainly may be the year of the 'from the NW and above 1700m'.
     
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I'm waiting till the great high migration begins to see how / if the trough pattern continues like it roughly has been over the last 6 months.

    I'm struggling to remember what the patterns were like this time last year.
     
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    #49 Stratus, Mar 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    latest EC still showing 50mm (for Melbourne) for next two days. GFS is around 25mm, up to 50mm in the west.
    ACCESS is similar to EC.

    BOM's estimate for Wednesday after 1-5mm tomorrow.
    [​IMG]
     
    #50 Claude Cat, Mar 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013