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SE AUS Autumn Weather: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 28, 2011.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I think a possibility of snow over the Easter weekend as a low and front slide past. (Looking like Easter Sunday and / or Monday). Both GFS and Access are showing this potential. However, A trailing ridging high might cut that chance short.

    Looks cold SW'ly none the less at this stage.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Doesn't look so great today. Perhaps peaking a bit early

    [​IMG]

    EC still showing a potential for a little rain for the Wed 20th.

    [​IMG]
     
    #452 Claude Cat, Apr 15, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Good Friday might be a chance. - caveat 180hours out.

    [​IMG]

    GFS also dreaming of a few possible scenarios the following week (26th and 30th), but far to far out to give credible predictions at this early stage.
     
    #453 Claude Cat, Apr 15, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Latest runs shows a ridging high blocking any feed from the low. The low is still there, but it looks to be pushed down south.

    But who knows, - still a week away.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yes, not a lot of interest at this stage. Looks like isolated showers for Melbourne for the best part of next week, but nothing substantial.
     
  6. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I think we might need the time to dry out a little bit... driving to my Gippsland home last night there were a few nice lakes around with the flooding. Apparently the Morwell River was twice as high the day before I drove through [​IMG]

    121mm for the month so far. Third month in a row above 100mm.
     
    #456 ice_man, Apr 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Interesting weather this week.

    A very weak belt of high pressure over Australia is being forecast by the models, allowing passing fronts to clip the southern areas perhaps. Cold westerly weather for Melbourn possibility till Easter.

    Looks like it might be "wet and wild" the following week (24th onwards) - all models showing some big systems in the vicinity. [​IMG]
     
    #457 Stratus, Apr 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, Tuesday 26th looks interesting on GFS IMO. but long, long way out.
     
  9. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    [​IMG]
     
    #459 skiflat, Apr 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    06z (8pm) run:

    [​IMG]
     
    #460 Claude Cat, Apr 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    ACCESS is still hungover from the weekend. Gah
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    at 200+ hours out, you know it's all going to change. [​IMG]
     
    #462 Claude Cat, Apr 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As I suspected, this morning GFS runs are completely different for next week.
     
  14. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    The potential is there for high alpine snow in the last bit of the front on Friday. The last part of the shower band and then in the showers that follow. Clears out quickly though early Saturday.
     
  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Nearly 24 hours later and still looking interesting

    I like
     
    #465 skiflat, Apr 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    gees AXS and GFS at odds after friday

    could be interesting
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still suggesting some snow late Friday, but moisture content doesn't seem high, IMO.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This morning's ACCESS and GFS runs have the moisture and cold a little too far south on Friday, IMO
    Tasmania should see some highland snow though.
     
  19. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Exten GFS liking May 1st.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    276 hours out ...
     
    #470 Claude Cat, Apr 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Now that's throwing a very distant line... wake me up in a few days' time.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Agreed. Only slightly better than a guess!
     
    #472 Claude Cat, Apr 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Borderline Friday. Only a little wet snow on the highest parts. All models have 540 in Tassie, and 544 just into Bass Strait.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nice band of showers coming through Melbourne now. I wasn't expecting quite as much.
     
  25. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well i be driving out to Sunbury and it was looking a bit suss atmospherically at 9am.
    And yes rain fell heavily for awhile producing puddles this morning.

    And BOM was saying like scattered showers??

    Have models made a boo boo or has something unexpected been added to mix. [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #475 Ubiquitous Steve, Apr 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Had some good rain in Dande South over lunch, but most of it has been drizzle type today. Still I think up to 5mm not out of the question.
     
    #476 Vermillion, Apr 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    WOW
    AXS is on crack for next week for NSW

    massive low bearing down from Vanuatu

    GFS has a bit of a sniff..but .man its pretty wild looking.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nothing much on GFS until Friday (29th), which we've already commented on.

    [​IMG]
     
    #478 Claude Cat, Apr 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Bucketing down in Northern Burbs of Melbourne

    Bloody spiders nest in my rain gauge again have meant no readings today [​IMG]

    Up the ladder tomororw again to clean the gauge out
     
    #479 skiflat, Apr 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I might have the same problem. Only 0.5mm recorded here, and I'm sure it's more than that.
     
    #480 Claude Cat, Apr 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Melb Airport 9.2mm since 9am
    Viewbank 7.4mm since 9am
    CBD 12.8mm since 9am, with 8mm in the past 30 mins.
    skidown 1.5mm since 9am.....

    My station was reading 0.0 until the downpour here which lasted about 15 mins, now reading 1.5mm

    Melb CBD 12.8mm in an hour!



     
  32. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another beautiful autumn day on the Real CC.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mine was full of spiderwebs too.

    Looking at what I collected elsewhere, it looks like just over 14mm overnight.
     
    #483 Claude Cat, Apr 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Yes agree looks to be the next thing brewing especially if that low preassure system out near Vanuatu slides down and squashes the high preassure out over NZ allowing the cold front to push on through.

    Very optimistic though. IMO
     
    #484 loweee, Apr 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    2mm overnight here in Canterbury.
    Looking reasonably stable for the next 7 to 10 days; all models have gone off the 29th.
     
  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Highs ruining the party. But its very very good to see the systems developing in the area.
     
  37. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A stunningly beautiful day in the Jindabyne farm country
     
  38. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    EC and US look very nice early next week, but ACCESS is quite different.

    If EC is right (which I usually have the most confidence in this far out) that's a fair bit of snow...
     
  39. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    That does look good at the moment on the maps for a bit of snow early next week. I will be watching in anticipation for the roller coaster as the forecast and maps change 3 or 4 times in the lead up.

    On a side note they do say snow before May will never stay....... This looks to hit early May season starter [​IMG]
     
    #489 loweee, Apr 26, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    More interested in the ECL that's expected to form, could well be looking at a HUGE swell for the east coast!!!
     
  41. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    The NSW mountains are primed for snow. Moist and green. Thredbo and PB are pastures of soft green, almost lawn like.
     
  42. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Yep, Sa-know is back on the charts (GFS) for next Sunday night through Tuesday.

    We'll see what EC and ACCESS have to say in the next few hours. ACCESS was initially hinting this a few days back if i recall correctly?


     
  43. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC suggesting high to ruin the party on Tuesday
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS Monday & Tuesday next week.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    EC perhaps not quite as excited as earlier in the day

    [​IMG]
     
    #494 Claude Cat, Apr 26, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    NOGAPS looks ok too

    [​IMG]
     
    #495 Claude Cat, Apr 26, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    EC is still showing a snowy set up - very similar to GFS. I think they will come futhur in line.

    All models showing a 1028ish trailing high west of Perth Sunday / Monday which is an ideal set up I think.
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Time to start a thread? I was going to start one last night...
     
  48. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I think a surprise is in store next week. Not a lot of moisture being progged but I can see upgrades happening.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    ACCESS seems on board, but GFS has downgraded overnight. Still a chance of a dusting.
    EC is still very borderline too, IMO
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im not convinced in any way as yet.