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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Feb 28, 2011.
I'm not convinced about the near tropical cyclone in the tasman either...so we'll see I guess.
It's interesting but ACCESS, GFS and EC all agree on this aspect. EC central pressure for that tasman low is 988 hPa.
As for snow Monday / Tuesday, IMO it's a borderline event, not much moisture and temps on the marginal side at this stage.
The system (now over near Perth) has lots of moisture pouring into it but the high we have here to our southeast may stuff this up. It could hold too strong and mean the system doesn't come through at its strongest.
Already over the weekend it is holding the rainband back only over the southwest and that strength may downgrade the cold outbreak early next week.
EC doesn't like it cold at all anymore, but ACCESS has flipped and loves it with a cut-off cold bubble.
Looks like some high level snow next Monday/Tuesday.... any thoughts? looks like a killer ECL as well
GFS now appears to like it moisture wise. Good two or three days of precipitation, exactly what I like to see.
GFS showing around 25mm for southern Victoria.
But I think it's almost all gone by the time the cold air arrives.
Certainly appears cold enough
EC is showing a princely total of 2mm for Melbourne for the same period.
I think GFS has those moisture values undervalued for NE VIC. Pressure will be very low and I dont think there will be a lack of moisture from the feed.
Its a 25 - 30cm system above 1600m, over 2 days. IMO.
Tasman Low 101:
With a Tasman Low on most models, reliably predicting any system to our west is difficult.
Could be blocked by stalled high pressure (which is blocked by said Low).
Im still not convinced here.
IMO general downgrade on both GFS and ACCESS this morning.
Now warmer and less moisture. GFS down to 5 & 10mm totals
EC closer to the others today showing around 12mm for Melbourne.
ACCESS hints of a secondary cold blast on Thursday, EC has some moisture around Friday (around 5mm)
I'm even less convinced than yesterday.
Looking at extended GFS currently showing a system for the 11th/12th of May. A long long way out but I am liking that they are popping up on the charts. I don't think it will be too long until we see some serious action and the passing of a front or 2 dropping some white stuff IMO.
Here is where I am seeing it at the moment. Caution will probably be gone tomorrow.
Next week it looks like the cold air is gone. Might get a little injection from that ECL and some nice rain totals but I don't think there will be any snow.
looks dead on tonights runs.
Yeah just died.
yep here today gone today.....
Highs have stuffed this one up big time. Nothing to see here... and I was so hopeful!
Tasman low is the prob IMO.
Rarely does a cold front link up with one over Vic/Nsw.
NZ on the other hand...
5-10mm out of this weekend, no snow anywhere to be seen though.
AXS likes the 7-8th, at this stage I am prepared to consider it, I dont like GFS's scenario I dont think it's going to happen. LWT is going to weaken a little bit but I cannot see the highs getting into a dominant state and blocking everything off.
Now is the time the ITCZ is moving north and everything is re-setting, give it a month and we'll be at the end of May, which is when I start to care about snow, and we'll see where we're at.
IMO I can't see any more than 5mm for the city from what comes through on Sunday.
EC also likes 7 & 8th, but at 240 hours out ....
Oh, on another note for those who follow cyclones, my gf went around Willis Island 2 weeks ago, and couldnt take any photos due to crap camera and not getting close enough, but it looks like it was flattened but there are buildings being built back up. It looks like the AWS is functioning somewhat, and that the accommodation might be re-instated. She said the island is barely above sea level, the cyclone would have drowned the whole island without a doubt.
Another glorious day here in Melbourne. Best time of the year for stable weather.
Models show zilch for the foreseeable short term future.
some monsterous high pressure systems on the models.
After a mid morning downpour the day turned out rather warm and sunny. The surf is short period with some random size.
Standard NSW day. In the real NSW our standard day for the past 2 months has been is fine, max in the low to mid 20's, cool but comfy night. Don't know why they bother puting us on the map on ABC news.
I can't see there being too much rain in May. All I see are gigantic highs on the forecast, and we don't tend to get massive systems this late in autumn.
Gigantic highs alright.
20mm in the city overnight, I had some rain, heavy at times but only 12mm in the gauge. Everything is absolutely soaked though, even with 5mm of rain the ground is so damp it puddles up everywhere.
Short and sharp front to come through Weds, then it looks like good weather for mothers day weekend (which sucks if you're a bloke). I can see some potential for troughy weather from next Monday onwards for a few days, but that's a week out so not too worried at this stage. LWT will begin to node-up this week, but the ITCZ is still not really moving northwards much, meaning these highs are having a more stabilising effect.
My rain gauge is full of spider webs again.
Judging by older catchment "gauge" I think we've had 10mm.
I'm not convinced we'll get any more than a shower or two on Wednesday, but it will be a bit cooler.
Windier too IMO.
GFS again showing something around 11,12 May with some type of wandering cold pool scenario.
Warning must be quick to look again as I am sure it will disappear. Access doesnt show it to the extent GFS does with the high belt remaining a bit more impenetrable on Access over the same period.
9pm run has it on the 13th of May now.
Very long way out though.
Looks nice... Fingers crossed.
I think it will be quick, windy, and possibly 5-10mm. Snow looked unlikely last night, not sure about this mornings runs.
I'm hoping it doesn't eventuate. The longer we go without a snow bearing system at this early point the better IMO......
But if it does come off, I'd expect another large round of S swell for the East Coast as well as a bit of snow for the Southern resorts.
AXS at 240 has a inland trough over adelaide... that could lead to some good rain by the look of the tropical in feed..
while GFS at 240 has a large high positioned south of Albany ...one might say "dominant"
EC looks good for the 12th too.
But it's still 240 hours out ..
Yeah it looks the best, that low is allowing the high to promote the colder air..
not very cold 850hPa temps though
Certainly marginal, but at 240 hours I'm only looking for potential rather than specifics as we all know it's going to change.
Yeah EC has a habit of banging the right drums at 240 IMO
see the low in the tasman, i like that
What does the ensemble say?
It resembles GFS
The positioning of the trailing high is promising at this stage.
EC is now more favorable on the 14th; either way it doesn't seem very strong.
Yes it has weakened significantly, and the high is in a poor position now.
Didnt get much rain yesterday but it was a nice solid change with some good showers. Everything is so wet the rainfall doesnt really matter at this time of year. I can see a lot of issues with moss and cool damp this winter.
Weaking by the day. Next possibly is just showing up around the 20th on GFS.
IMO, something else will pop up in the next few days.
BoM website model fetching a reasonable amount of rainfall over the next week... GFS is seeing weak fronts over the next week, ACCESS is still stubbornly refusing to see any activity.
that EC model shows some pretty good penetration of colder air
considering its the conservative model.
Yes, EC shows a tasman low forming and they are usually no good for bringing anything useful to the mainland. It's just sliding too far to the east, IMO
The 11th looks cold enough as you say, but I don't think there's going to be enough moisture to make it count.
I think thats just the progression of the low from south of tasmania. Its just between runs.
look at the wind maps. that is alot of energy ..
i call goodes