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SE AUS Autumn Weather: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Feb 28, 2011.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like fine weather through this week with a change on the weekend. Undecided on when and how strong this change will be, but it better stay away until after im in from fishing Saturday arvo if it knows what's good for it.
     
  2. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    2.5 mm overnight, in the northern burbs of Melbourne, wasn't expecting that much as I poisoned a heap of weeds in the morning.

    Hopefully they still die!!! [​IMG]
     
    #302 skiflat, Apr 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Morning EC run shows something brewing for Tuesday / Wednesday next week.
    No agreement from ACCESS or GFS, so at this stage I wouldn't put it at a high probability.
     
  4. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Change for weekend better come late sunday as Westons getting final workover.

    Models better not deliver a deluge please!!
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can't see a deluge on any model until atleast early next week.
     
  6. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Models aren't showing any wind either, bummer
     
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind forecast for Saturday, it better disappear quick.
     
  8. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I think today's the first time in months I looked at the Victorian BoM section and noticed no weather warnings.
     
  9. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    [​IMG] some people want wind. Others want no wind. Some want rain, others want no rain. Some people want heat, others want cool.

    I think there's one thing we want we can all agree on though!
     
    #309 ice_man, Apr 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Right now, no wind, mid to low 20s. Done.
     
  11. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs is now coming into line again with this.

    Looks like we might have a burst of cold air Sunday arvo...dusting on the peaks a possibility. Looking fairly dry however.

    [​IMG]
     
    #311 Stratus, Apr 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Wake me when there is a season starter with no FIZZ. Heck even a season starter for NZ...

    In the meantime I emptied one of the water tanks on the weekend, garden beds were VERY dry!

    1 x 22500 tank empty

     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you live in a furnace anddee? My garden is still wet and I water it once a week and it doesnt even need it. I havent watered the lawn since it was put in and knitting down, that was 8 months ago! You must have a water thief, id speak to Mayor Adam West.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Even EC has gone off that system next week. Nice big fat blocking tasman highs.
    De rigueur for Autumn.
     
    #314 Claude Cat, Apr 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's waiting isnt it? Like it's going to go one way or another, just not sure where right now.
     
  16. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Well I would be happy with 15-20 knots of wind,15-20ml of rain or 15-20cm of snow. I don't ask for much.
     
    #316 ratherb@thesnow, Apr 4, 2011
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  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    batman is your mayor? skidown
    [​IMG]
    anways, moist onshore flow and mid 16s here in the gong, showers embeded in scrubby low cumulus
    feels like autumn
     
    #317 Donza, Apr 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #318 Vermillion, Apr 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Verm fishing not looking to good for the weekend, runs this morning have Northerlies coming up quite strong from mid morning up to 20-25 before turning westerly later in the afternoon. You might have to tuck up high in Westernport Bay to escape them.
     
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    High up gives me no relief there is nowhere to hide from Notherlies or westerlies up there, especially if it's wind against tide (which it will be sat arvo). I was planning on being in the channels so the only wind I would be able to tolerate would be a slight S wind.

    Always next weekend...i guess.
     
  21. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Models are thinking about it... GFS looking great this evening for a nice cut-off scenario. Not cold though.

    Conversely, ACCESS going for a cold front scenario. Dusting up high but not much moisture. Still has another system progged later on.
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS being a little stupid way out tonight, that's for sure. Although I have to think twice these days when it progs massive moisture.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC and ACCESS now showing some rain Saturday though Monday.
    EC showing 30mm or there abouts for Melbourne, GFS 25mm and more to the east.
    A nice little cut-off low scenario.

    [​IMG]
     
    #323 Claude Cat, Apr 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    I think Autumn is my favourite season in Melbourne

    Nice mid 20's during the day, and chilly at night

    Then again I love all seasons in Melbourne [​IMG]
     
    #324 skiflat, Apr 5, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    even 45C summer?
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    hehe - Doesn't happen that often and the A/C just churns away
     
  27. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS is still holding onto a nice SW feed for Sunday (mini weak cut off scenario). If it happened we would see a dusting to 1500m or there abouts IMO.

    EC and GFS show a similar path for the low but with no cold injection, and are a bit bearish with that cut-off.

    2 models on 1
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    General downgrade overnight for the weekend. 10mm or less for Melbourne IMO.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Models are still a little in disagreement with what's happening this weekend.
    EC has ramped up moisture for Sunday Monday (for Melbourne) with a bombing low forming in east Bass Strait. Currently it's showing 30+mm over the two days.
    [​IMG]
    GFS is similar except the EC low is forming on Tuesday.
    GFS is also showing a cold pool for Sunday night which could result in a dusting across the alps.
    [​IMG]
    ACCESS is much colder but less moist - there would be widespread snowfalls in the alps if that comes off.
    Nice one to watch at this time of year!
     
    #329 Claude Cat, Apr 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Mountain watch has jumped right on board this morning with snow above 2000m for NSW. Does anyone know what forecast model they use?
     
  31. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The FIZZ model
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  33. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still showing this and has basically been suggesting it for the last 4 days or so.

    Access is superior to GFS now IMO.
     
    #333 Stratus, Apr 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we'll see 5cm on peaks and a dusting at resorts come Monday morning. Fingers crossed.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    off topic; [​IMG] I have seen nothing to suggest that ACCESS is superior to GFS or EC. I still rank them EC, then GFS then ACCESS. Although the difference between ACCESS and GFS is not much.
     
    #335 Claude Cat, Apr 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting opinion. From memory, Access was outperforming GFS on most systems last winter. I dont think of GFS as a very "stable" model in comparison. But we'll see how it goes for this system and for this season more importantly [​IMG]
     
    #336 Stratus, Apr 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    This evening's ACCESS-R update confirming ACCESS-G's throughts of this system on Sunday.

    A SW change around midnight Saturday night, and 850hpa temps over the alps are forecast to be negatives by early Sunday morning. There doesn't appear to be much moisture following - pressure up and beyond 1016hpa by the time its cold enough for snow. Negative temps at resort level just before mid-day Sunday IMO.
     
  38. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I could almost rate ACCESS ahead of GFS. GFS smokes some funny stuff sometimes. [​IMG]

    I think this weekend's good to go. Probably snow to only about 1600 metres or so, and I think there's a surprise in store moisture wise. Around 15mm over the south of Vic, all up.
     
    #338 ice_man, Apr 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is still the most reliable for my forecasting.

    Now, what do people reckon will happen wind-wise over the weekend? Im thinking decent N/NW Saturday at about 20-30kts, and about the same with the change Sunday.
     
  40. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    BOM has backed off on tonites run, now going for 15-20 NW with lighter SW winds on Sunday. Where as Seabreeze is still going for the stronger stuff on both days. Interestingly the BOM has freshening N'lys for tomorrow so maybe its coming thru a little earlier and we may end up with a less windier day on Sunday.

    Still reckon your fishing is off for the weekend Vern.
     
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's ready to go, let's see how it all unfolds [​IMG]
     
    #341 Vermillion, Apr 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    EC is pumping for 60mm for Monday / Tuesday (with a little bit over the weekend).
    ACCESS has backed off on the cold and is much more in line with GFS now, so I'm not entirely sure there will be much (if any) snow.
     
    #342 Claude Cat, Apr 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    The cold air has backed off but we still have the 544 here through most of the models. Looking at what they had for yesterday and today, and comparing that to the satellite, there is cold air there.

    We should all get a rainband, then the wrap around the low. My feeling is this one will give a big surge of showers to most of southern Victoria (gradually from west to east), but central areas and up into the eastern ranges should see the most.

    Its a fair chance to be as snow on the highest parts from Sunday morning until the colder air disappears on Monday. Hard to put a figure on it as they are showery (hit and miss) but 15 cm is possible (melting onto warm ground).

    More details, as always, at my site.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Great to have you here Jane, I've always liked (& recommended) your website.
     
  45. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Jane - A big welcome to you [​IMG]

    I hope to see you here during Winter and of course I'll be reading your website every day as I did last Winter.

    Your forecasts were accurate and very easy to read!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #345 skiflat, Apr 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. timonearth

    timonearth Hard Yards

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    ^ ditto! [​IMG]
     
    #346 timonearth, Apr 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Frost here in Jindabyne for the first time this year this morning. Also looking forward to Janes input this season.
     
  48. shadow1

    shadow1 Hard Yards

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    -7.4 C at Perisher this morning to 17C
     
  49. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Thankyou very much everyone.

    Thought I should get more conversational about the weather - not just stating what I think [​IMG]
     
    #349 janesweather, Apr 8, 2011
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  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    love your input Jane
    though a wee bit of NSW love would go along way.