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SE AUS Autumn Weather: lazy hazy days and ground coolers!

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Feb 28, 2011.

  1. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    17add 7 equals 24deg of variability!

    Definately r/c with weetbix to start the day!

    Wonder what min was a Consett Stephens Pass.??
    [​IMG]
     
    #351 Ubiquitous Steve, Apr 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 19, 2013
  2. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    sorry, got a bit excited, BOM are forecasting snow showers on Monday and Tuesday at Thredbo

    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/alpine.shtml

    Forecast for Monday
    Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 10 to 20 km/h.

    Thredbo Top Station Few snow showers. Min 0 Max 4
    Perisher Valley Few snow showers. Min 0 Max 7

    Forecast for Tuesday
    Cloudy. Scattered showers, falling as snow at times. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h.

    Thredbo Top Station Few snow showers. Min -1 Max 6
    Perisher Valley Few snow showers. Min 0 Max 8
     
    #352 gareth_oau, Apr 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  3. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lazy,hazy days and ground FREEZERS!!!

    Wombats/criters in for temp shock!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #353 Ubiquitous Steve, Apr 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    I now like a changing to snow on Sunday afternoon for the VIC resorts and staying just cold enough until about Tuesday morning.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I can only see snow for the very peaks Sunday evening, the 850mb temps still look a little high. Lets see what the models say tomorrow.
    To be sure it's going to be cool, windy and wintery. EC is suggesting the low won't be quite as deep as the other models.
     
  6. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    At this stage GFS thinks the low will move away by Wednesday. ACCESS has it hanging around the entire week.

    Snow or not, my home region looks like it will get a big drenching! I'm thinking minor flooding as much as snow right now...
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yes, looks like a nice drink for most of the south. Say goodbye to the warm weather tomorrow, I don't think we'll see too much after that.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC and GFS have gone off this system somewhat, IMO.
    Neither has the low developing as strongly as first predicted. Even so GFS is showing 25 to 50mm, EC is around the 10mm mark.
    ACCESS still thinks it will be strong.
     
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont know if we will get those rainfall totals progged last night, just looks like a change with some showers to me. Bit of a shame we havent had a drink for a while now.

    I reckon there is 1 more spell above 25C before we get to winter-mode.
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS has backed off the cold air somewhat, but should still be good for snow on the peaks. Very wet either way.

    Longwave looks good for Fri / Sat next week, so another system possible Sun / Mon week.
     
  11. Hobber

    Hobber A Local

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    NSW BoM is now calling snow above 1400:

    Forecast for Monday
    Cloudy with showers. Scattered snowfalls above 1400 metres. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 25 km/h.

    Thredbo Top StationShowers.Min-1Max4
    Perisher ValleyShowers.Min-1Max6

     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rainband is building, AFL decided to leave the roof at Etihad open, apparently it's 27C in there at the moment. Will they get rain within the hour? BOM says nothing in Melbourne until 6pm, I dont know if I believe that I think they will get wet in the last quarter. Tigers/Hawks game to be wet tonight too.

    Looks OK for me.
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eeery "lull before the storm" type feeling atm.
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still very windy here and dark cloud blowing across. You know it's coming.
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raining sideways!
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Smashing down in Canterbury now.
     
  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Holy moly, latest ACCESS R has 15 - 20mm for Melbourne from now to 10am tomorrow.

    Then

    [​IMG]

    From 10am Sunday to 10am Monday [​IMG]
     
    #367 Stratus, Apr 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS not quite as bullish for next 24 hours, but the 7 day accumulations have been ramped up significantly since last night.

    [​IMG]
     
    #368 Claude Cat, Apr 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    I think this means we will have an amazing season and we should all book accom now OMG OMG

    Will this help the snow stay on the ground?

    Will we have an early season from this?


    [​IMG]
     
    #369 Bugski, Apr 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nah, just a "ground-cooler"
     
  21. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    If the GFS scenario comes off we're looking at rather severe flooding.

    Each model appears to suggest a big dump of rain at some point along the south. How big, and where, varies. (Compare the ACCESS-R scenario to the GFS scenario). Somewhere is going to cop it.
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This rainband clearing the metro area, but falls of around 10mm being recorded. Sounds about right.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, I'm sitting on 11mm at the moment.
     
  24. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is that an accurate forecast for when I go skiing on July 30th? And is that fact?
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    depends on the glacial worms
     
  26. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and the vibe?
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    btw its looking good for the 3rd may
    epic
     
  29. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are we going to get snow tomorrow or tomorrow night?
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    21.5mm in 4 hours so far.
     
  32. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #382 smitty484, Apr 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    I observe that Perisher has had about 5mm in last hour, temps dropping (currently 2C on the mountain and heading south) and wind clocking above 60km/h.
     
  34. glug1

    glug1 Addicted

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    18mm in my gauge here in Bendigo.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Up to 25mm this morning. I don't expect much more today. Perhaps the odd shower or two.
    Looks like things re-develop later Monday, Tuesday looks quite wet again as the moisture rotates around.

    Mount William is down to 2C, usually a good indicator of cold air moving up.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Buller and Hotham just in to the negatives.
    Looks like a dusting at Hotham.
     
  37. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Baw Baw right on zero but no precipitation around.

    23mm last night, filling the tanks nicely!
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tuesday still shaping as the wet day out of this system.
     
  39. dossa5

    dossa5 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    looking out the bedroom window Feathers has had a dusting of snow. Ooooh yeah.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The sat pic looks really good IMO this morning. Nice symmetrical low over the land, the bottom half sucking up moisture. This should hit Gippsland this morning, and depending on how far west it penetrates, Melbourne in the afternoon. Going to be weird seeing rain coming from the SE though.
     
  41. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes interesting early sunday morning on Bogong High Plains!

    Needed submarine!!

    And a little snow falling as i left about 4.30pm.

    Now what are models/factors predicting in next couple months.
    Was this system an isolated occurence or are we to see more over next couple months.

    Cos very strange having very warm conditions and wham a cold(heavy duty) frontal system with cold conditions continuing for what the week?? [​IMG]
     
    #391 Ubiquitous Steve, Apr 11, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    We have a complex low that has been affecting us this weekend and will be in the vicinity for the first half of this week.

    It was cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow from yesterday afternoon through to this morning. It is heading just above freezing for the day but should go back below for tonight through to tomorrow morning. After that, no more snow.

    The precipitation wraps around the low in a clockwise way. If a stream can line up over a particular area, that spot has the potential to pick up very big falls. This happened near Warrnambool so far (75 mm). Today these potential areas include the southwest, Gippsland coast and up across the northern plains into the northeast ranges. This shifts overnight to be central parts (Melbourne), west Gippsland and up into the northeast and on Wednesday it is just west Gippsland.

    So, there is the potential for big snow falls tonight into tomorrow morning.
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Center of the low has barely moved in the past few hours.
     
  44. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    One needs lots rum and coke to deal with such a complex low system."Barely moving outside and staying close to fire"
    I tend to walk around in anti clockwise fashion myself to inject more drama into system!!
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You cant do that steve you'll rip a hole in space!

    back on topic - Not doing much so far today.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Low seems to be rotating around Echuca (looking at the radar), no huge moisture showing up yet.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM have issued a flood watch for Greater Melbourne (11am)
    Interesting is their thoughts on how much we'll get.

     
    #397 Claude Cat, Apr 11, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They certainly are bullish. These sorts of things can go either way IMO and at the moment im not seeing these heavy totals. I had 25mm over the weekend so not in desperate need of more rain, although the neighbours would probably enjoy it as I put down a heap of chicken shit manure and even though I watered it in pretty well it needs another soaking to sink in and stop smelling.
     
  49. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Verm what's the wind going to do this weekend? are you fishing or am I kiting? I noticed the fresh SE originally forecasted for Sat have disappeared on todays 3pm run
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bom have issued a SWW for flash flooding.

     
    #400 Claude Cat, Apr 11, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013