Predictions SE Aus Cold Outbreak 4-5th April

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 30, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tidy little April set-up thanks to a good Rossby Wave pulse in the region - which will also go on to liven up the TD in the Coral Sea.

    This cold pool looks to form a cut off scenario West of Tas with good polar jet bulls-eying Vic.

    EC:
    [​IMG]

    EC progging falls of 30-50mm over the 4th/5th April in upper mountain areas. Equating to potentially 10-15cm of snow on Vic Alps/Main Range above 1200m.
    With snow down as low as 1000m at times.


    This system is supported by EC & The Canadian, with GFS trending positively towards a similar outbreak.

    Still quite a fluid set-up as the position of the closed low will determine cold air delivered throughout regions, i.e. the closed low may inhibit low level snow in Tas as it projects the cold air through Vic and Bass Strait.

    NB. still pretty quite in here, but if it get's busy we'll forge this thread into a Predictions & Obs Thread.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Worth noting is that ahead of this system is a big draw in of inland moisture (thanks to a moisture laden Eastern IO).
    Associated with the polar push is good falls ahead of the outbreak, on Thursday/Friday delivering falls of 40-80mm through Southern NSW and Northern Vic.
     
    #2 POW_hungry, Mar 30, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  3. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like AXS set-up also.
    Hopefully the high remains west of the bight, to allow this thing of beauty to deliver in spades!
     
  4. Tweekin

    Tweekin One of Us

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    This sounds more fun than talking about the beer - bring it on
     
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  5. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note the new WZ app has 10 day town forecasts. The ACT region is forecasting 18s and 19s next Sun/Mon (and beyond). I'd like to see 16 or below to be called 'cold'. :)
     
  6. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now THIS is a corona distraction
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    By Sunday morning, Canberrans will be firing up heaters.
     
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  8. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    TWC has defo picked-up on it now:

    [​IMG]

    Pretty nice for a +2 AAO anomaly.
     
  9. Interruptedbyfireworks

    Interruptedbyfireworks One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Finally, I hope so. It has been way too unseasonably warm lately

    WZ app predicting 90% chance of 20-40mm for Canberra region on Friday :love:
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting you mention this because that index will shrink to near-neutral by the end of the week, Negative-bound.
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is trying for 20-30cm for the MR on its latest modelling.
    15-25cm for Falls/Hotham. Will probably downgrade a bit as the models go up and down and due to the season, but the figures for this time of year are pretty positive.

     
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  12. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off topic but bought first load of wood last Friday.
    Careful what you wish for @Interruptedbyfireworks it's going to be a looooong winter.
     
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  13. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z falling into line with EC's 12Z this arvo. Small timings differences, otherwise singing from the same hymn sheet now.
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday 2200hrs chart is a thing of beauty @Donzah
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z starts out nice as it comes in, but is pushed south just as it head towards the Alps.


    Another way at looking at it through 500mb temps:


    Now we are looking at a few cms as modelled by latest EC. Hopefully the downgrade doesn’t prevail as a trend, but also kind of inevitable.

    Still plenty of precipitation with it for the NE of VIC and the Snowy region.
     
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  18. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Cbr forecast has corrected (or I missed it), 5-13 for Sunday, brrrrrr. Every other day is 18+ though.
     
  19. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    BOM now on board. This far out, that's normally a good sign.
     
  20. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    BoM (Meteye) showing 1° / 5° C for Sunday here, vs. TWC's 2° / 6° C. Very rare for BoM to show the colder forecast (it's usually the other way around, and by a long shot).
     
  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    15 cms above 1200 M is op shop XC skis rock hopper able. I am sure I will have almost fatally increasing FOMO as these systems come through in the current context well into winter. These systems are also good for surfing too(double FOMO). They bring new swells to the coast line.
     
  22. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This will be a nice surf coast swell. Especially Sunday under the NW winds.
    Current tracking shows way to much west in the swell for the peninsula, and the old period variable being way to short, might get a small wave on the high tide but I wouldn’t be getting to excited.
    Probably won’t be allowed to surf then anyway so best interest to hybernate this one
     
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  23. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not Anzac Day yet.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Turn the Telly on, ANZAC day is cancelled.
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Olde rule of thumb in Cbr.
    turn heaters n Anzac day.
    turn them off October LWE.

    oh and this system is looking interesting.
    dare we say it "ground cooling "
     
  26. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it snows in the mountains but nobody is allowed to ski it, did it actually snow at all?
     
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  27. teleroo

    teleroo Lincoln Turns at the Pass Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has been consistently looping warm air around Tassie on Saturday last few runs, any snow likely to be marginal slop. Now following with a colder surge for Tassie only on Monday. My gut feeling is GFS is overcooking the low west of Tassie (central pressure of 966 seems too low) so this may not eventuate.

     
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  28. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ill just take the rain thanks!
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenny there.
    Thurs/Fri Rainfall, ahead of this system on Saturday.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *gfs
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC even keel.
    Still looks like 10-15cm fall above 1300m on EC IMO.
    With snow down to ~1100m, early Sunday.
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    YR NO - MT. Kosciuszko Saturday04/04/2020 23:00–05:00
    Heavy rain.
    11.6 mm [​IMG]Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northwest
    05:00–11:00
    Heavy rain.
    5.2 mm [​IMG]Fresh breeze, 8 m/s from northwest
    11:00–17:00
    Sleet showers.
    1.2 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from northwest
    17:00–23:00
    Snow showers.
    2.3 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from northwest
    Sunday05/04/2020 23:00–05:00
    Snow.
    -3° 1.7 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from northwest
    05:00–11:00
    Heavy snow.
    -5° 5.9 mm [​IMG]Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from northwest
    11:00–16:00
    Heavy snow.
    -3° 5.5 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northwest
    16:00–22:00
    Snow showers.
    -3° 2.1 mm Gentle breeze, 5[​IMG]
     
  33. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    very similar rule to the CT’s as well.
    Some heaters may be test run a little earlier than usual
     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the 6 hr EC charts ...I'm not that bullish
    5-10cm at most
    But a good drink of 40-60mm for some areas
     
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  35. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Base builder
     
  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    This white season if we are not allowed to go out and ski then I will be actually hoping for the clear non skiable version of snow instead . Since it is not actually the ski season yet I shall mention the word. RAIN. There , I said it.
     
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  37. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meh
    If I'm confined still I'll happily watch the flakes fly on a cam or charts, gives me hope and I can dream of better times in pointer places
     
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  38. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We all know what is going to happen. We will be stuck inside and the snow will fall and fall, Murphys law at its best going to be tested.


    Anyway ill quote CC "stay on topic".
    Melbourne forecast max of 15 Sunday. Going to be nice to rug up properly for the first time this year.
     
  39. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good footy weather

    Oh **** it
     
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  42. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not only will it snow like never before this white season , the surf conditions will be amazing too ( i.e WAAAAAAAAAAAAY better than the Urban surf wave pool) .
     
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  43. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My touring gear is in Melb as we had to drag a cot up, but I’ve got my XC skis. Don’t think I have ski pants here tho.
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS 10pm Sat. Looking at the general likelihood of Dendritic Growth at 650hPa - the temp is still a tad high. Generaly a Temp at -12 or below is desired for solid growth.
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    XC skis... just wear your MTB gear with tights
    fit right in
     
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  46. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Essentials
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Lycra pics will be nuked.
     
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Skew T for Buller at 1 am looks quite good though. PW is a tad low but very good DL Shear and some nice Helicity in the mix
     
  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like ~5-10cm for Buller, ~10-15cm for Falls/Hotham, ~15-25cm for the MR, as per latest EC.

    Very decent.
     
  50. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kid could have slept in a drawer #welshminer
    Priorities mate
     
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