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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 30, 2020.
Rolled up newspaper would do.
It's a luxury
Little blighter's lucky it's not hole in road
This system reminds me a bit of early-April 1995.
Maybe a 20 cent+ for the alps system. Sunday into Monday.
Fair bit of instability on Friday night. EC 18Z
Yeah Friday night could pop. But it looks very late at night.
OMG don't tell me these things .FOMO!
Why? Where are you?
Looks wetter at the start... and better at the end today on the 4 dayer.
Fear of Missing Out, or FOMO I think.
I am in confinement like all other people who want this bad dream to be over sooner than later. If we all stay at home then we can get through this sooner. Ordinarily I would be leaping at a chance to surf in autumn and XC ski on the op shop rock hoppers out of season . Now these things are big case of KAPUT and VERBOTEN until further notice. Hence the FOMO.
This cold front is going to look funky on the new BOM radar at Rainbow:
Diminished surface heat and a smaller contribution of latent heat release/ ascention by then i would have thought.
GFS is looking okay for a few cms.
Surface pressure not looking incredible. But the uppers look like they are more logical now.
Yeah not as exciting as a late arvo session.
31 March 2019.......
Another day, another EC 00z downgrade after a solid 12z.
Still a few cms or so out of it, which isn’t awful for Early April.
Still, plenty of rainfall about:
Lovely precipitation for Eyre, and much of NSW.
Figures increasing for Eastern Subs of Melb for my personal interest.
Generous falls for all of the Alps.
slip slipping away
Temps and Dew Points are ok 1- 7 am Sunday but not much Precip on EPS Averages .
A Look @ what a blend of models are thinking atm.
Self explanatory v/cold polar air mass.
Precip % for any 'probability'
Will be cold and windy..
But no wu-tang when the air gets cold enough for snow
Try getting your head around 10pm tonight in the Bight.
Cape Sorrell Buoy to cop a flogging Saturday PM.
My head resembles that ...
BoM going for snow above 1300m on Sunday in the Snowies.
Fair call, going off this morning's EC run IMO.
EC 00z, not to be sneezed at.
Remains fairly decent to me.
I will be happy with 25mm of clear.
Lets hope we're allowed access to pow by EOFY.
Ukmet 00z Holding serve.
A little bit of weather starting to build up on the hill. Any rain late tonight / early tomorrow will be welcome. Other than impacts on our current work installing cladding at home..... but rain would be good for paddocks.
Looks like the big precip periods are:
Tonight/Tomorrow morning, potential for heavy rainfall.
Friday night/Saturday morning, potential for thunderstorms at night.
Another burst of showers on Saturday arvo/evening, potential for ~2-5cm of snowfall. 1600-1800m in the afternoon, down to 1200-1400m overnight. Chance for storms during the day.
Another burst of precip on Sunday afternoon/evening, chance for snowfall above 1800-2000m early on Monday.
WATL multi-model ensemble for the next 8 days:
GFS Uppers temps 500/700mb. Aching knee's weather.
& AXS-R (1700hrs Saturday) 500mb temps for posterity.
700mb temps AXS-R
AXS-R 24 hr precip to 4am Sunday:
Still looks like ~2-5cm above 1300-1500m on late Sat night/early Sunday morning. Chance of snowfall on Monday morning as well. Decent ground cooler.
Quite alot of speckled cloud in the wedge with this modeled anom @ lower WA.
Coupla coldies chillin' in the fridge.
The initial burst of rains arrived in the mountains early this morning. Just a few mm for Moonbah. PV has received a tic over 12mm since 9:00......
No ski pants? No problem @CarveMan. With COVID-19 regulations, no-one will see you, no-one will know.
Your secret will be safe with me.
back on topic, currently watching speckled cloud that looks typical to bring good cold air with plenty of damp
The impending winter when it could be massive and nobody can go. Constant rain here in Canberra and I have sprung a leak above my workplace at home...
rime noreason back on topic, currently watching speckled cloud that looks typical to bring good cold air with plenty of damp.
Indeed it's a very unstable polar air mass.
SW tas should cop a snow nukage wont it?
Certainly looks very decent across much of the Western Tasmanian mountains:
Translates to ~15-35cm over the next few days.
Bureau saying snow levels down to 900m.
Gonna be very chilly for parts of the state.
Long and painful winter with not much skiing!
-31C (500mb) over NW Tas says it'll sneak under 900m IMO.
-2C @ 850mb
Albeit under the cover of darkness @ around 11pm-2am.
AXS-R going for sustained 35-40 knots for coastal Tas.
Gusts exceeding a tonne IMO.