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Predictions SE Aus Cold Outbreak 4-5th April

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 30, 2020.

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  1. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rolled up newspaper would do.
     
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  2. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a luxury
    Little blighter's lucky it's not hole in road
     
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  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  4. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    This system reminds me a bit of early-April 1995.
     
  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Maybe a 20 cent+ for the alps system. Sunday into Monday.
     
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  6. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Fair bit of instability on Friday night. EC 18Z
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Friday night could pop. But it looks very late at night.
     
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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    OMG don't tell me these things .FOMO!
     
  10. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why? Where are you?
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks wetter at the start... and better at the end today on the 4 dayer.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fear of Missing Out, or FOMO I think.
     
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  13. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am in confinement like all other people who want this bad dream to be over sooner than later. If we all stay at home then we can get through this sooner. Ordinarily I would be leaping at a chance to surf in autumn and XC ski on the op shop rock hoppers out of season . Now these things are big case of KAPUT and VERBOTEN until further notice. Hence the FOMO.
     
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  14. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    snowgum and Wavey like this.
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Diminished surface heat and a smaller contribution of latent heat release/ ascention by then i would have thought.
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is looking okay for a few cms.
    Surface pressure not looking incredible. But the uppers look like they are more logical now.​
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah not as exciting as a late arvo session.
     
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  18. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    31 March 2019.......


     

    Attached Files:

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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another day, another EC 00z downgrade after a solid 12z.



    Still a few cms or so out of it, which isn’t awful for Early April.


    Still, plenty of rainfall about:


    Lovely precipitation for Eyre, and much of NSW.
    Figures increasing for Eastern Subs of Melb for my personal interest.
    Generous falls for all of the Alps.
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    slip slipping away
     
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  21. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Temps and Dew Points are ok 1- 7 am Sunday but not much Precip on EPS Averages .
     
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    A Look @ what a blend of models are thinking atm.
    gem-all-aus-t500-6034000.png gem-all-aus-t700-6034000.png gem-all-aus-vort500_z500-6034000.png gfs-deterministic-newsouthwales-z500_anom-5990800.png ukmet-wmo-aus-z500_anom-6001600.png

    Self explanatory v/cold polar air mass.








    Ukmet




    Precip % for any 'probability'
     
    #73 stormkite2000, Apr 1, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be cold and windy..
    But no wu-tang when the air gets cold enough for snow
    IMO
    [​IMG]
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Try getting your head around 10pm tonight in the Bight.
     
    #75 POW_hungry, Apr 1, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cape Sorrell Buoy to cop a flogging Saturday PM.
     
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  27. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My head resembles that ...
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM going for snow above 1300m on Sunday in the Snowies.
    Fair call, going off this morning's EC run IMO.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z, not to be sneezed at.
    Remains fairly decent to me.
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will be happy with 25mm of clear.
    Lets hope we're allowed access to pow by EOFY.
     
  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Ukmet 00z Holding serve.

     
  32. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little bit of weather starting to build up on the hill. Any rain late tonight / early tomorrow will be welcome. Other than impacts on our current work installing cladding:rolleyes: at home..... but rain would be good for paddocks.

     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the big precip periods are:
    • Tonight/Tomorrow morning, potential for heavy rainfall.
    • Friday night/Saturday morning, potential for thunderstorms at night.
    • Another burst of showers on Saturday arvo/evening, potential for ~2-5cm of snowfall. 1600-1800m in the afternoon, down to 1200-1400m overnight. Chance for storms during the day.
    • Another burst of precip on Sunday afternoon/evening, chance for snowfall above 1800-2000m early on Monday.

    WATL multi-model ensemble for the next 8 days:
     
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS Uppers temps 500/700mb. Aching knee's weather.




     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    & AXS-R (1700hrs Saturday) 500mb temps for posterity.


    700mb temps AXS-R
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks decent.
     
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  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R 24 hr precip to 4am Sunday:
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looks like ~2-5cm above 1300-1500m on late Sat night/early Sunday morning. Chance of snowfall on Monday morning as well. Decent ground cooler.
     
  40. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Quite alot of speckled cloud in the wedge with this modeled anom @ lower WA.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Coupla coldies chillin' in the fridge.
     
  42. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The initial burst of rains arrived in the mountains early this morning. Just a few mm for Moonbah. PV has received a tic over 12mm since 9:00......





     
  43. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    No ski pants? No problem @CarveMan. With COVID-19 regulations, no-one will see you, no-one will know.

    Your secret will be safe with me.



    back on topic, currently watching speckled cloud that looks typical to bring good cold air with plenty of damp
     
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  44. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    The impending winter when it could be massive and nobody can go. Constant rain here in Canberra and I have sprung a leak above my workplace at home...
     
  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    rime noreason back on topic, currently watching speckled cloud that looks typical to bring good cold air with plenty of damp.

    Indeed it's a very unstable polar air mass.
     
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  46. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    SW tas should cop a snow nukage wont it?
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly looks very decent across much of the Western Tasmanian mountains:


    Translates to ~15-35cm over the next few days.
    Bureau saying snow levels down to 900m.
    Gonna be very chilly for parts of the state.
     
  48. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long and painful winter with not much skiing!
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    -31C (500mb) over NW Tas says it'll sneak under 900m IMO.
    -2C @ 850mb
    Albeit under the cover of darkness @ around 11pm-2am.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R going for sustained 35-40 knots for coastal Tas.
    Gusts exceeding a tonne IMO.
     
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