Predictions SE Aus Cold Outbreak 4-5th April

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Mar 30, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM pumping up the tyres of precip figures on Saturday (20-35mm for Thredbo). Most of which will come through circa Saturday evening.
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That ain’t gonna be fun, wow.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you have access to OCF's output?
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nope, using WATL. Not sure what happened to it on Stormcast. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe WATL is the latest multi-model ensemble standard from the Bureau anyway.

    There is some OCF output available by weather station in a written format.

    IIRC @stormkite2000 has access to some current OCF maps. I would have thought WZ Pro would have them though?
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You may be right there! I used to find it very useful for model cross-checking.
    Cheers, never seen that.
     
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  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    UKmet/00z is still solid holding serve.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am into it.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF averaging 15-20mm for the resorts to Sunday 9am
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    P.S. Right now, OCF is bang-on the money for Sydney basin total falls, for what it's worth.
     
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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like snowfall from 4-7pm on Saturday for most of the resorts.

    I am thinking ~5cm of snowfall for the mainland resorts, heading towards 10cm possibly, chance for even more for the MR peaks, per EC.

    Bureau is talking about snow down to 1100m on Sunday morning. I’m not quite so sure about that, more like ~1300-1500m.
     
  11. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    XC skiing is what makes winter fun and most of all bearable. With no XC skiing or surfing during the autumn and winter period I will start to go insane :-0 and possibly descend into a brown study :-(.
     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  13. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    alright, I'll bite - WTF is a brown study?!
     
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  15. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did I see a sheep graziers alert via the WZ app (new synoptics user interface not working for me grrrr)?
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup.
     
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  17. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    ^I wouldn't put a Sheep Graziers Warning for the C Tablelands, not even for the S Tablelands (apart from the pine plantation areas just south of Burrinjuck, which are basically the SW Slopes). Quite the misleading advice on Weatherzone's part!

    There's just no moisture on the forecast up north to have any adverse effect on livestock, not to mention it'd be much more tame up there—e.g. Porters Retreat at 1,200+ m forecast a max of 11° C at its coldest, but with no rain whatsoever, and that's in the extreme south of the CT region.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The warning is issued by BoM, not WeatherZone. WeatherZone merely re-publish:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/sheep.shtml

    The warning is a result of a number of variables, particularly with regard to cold temperatures & winds, with CT's expecting sub-8ºC temps & up to 20 knots Saturday night.

    Wind chill will be unexpected for April.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF 24 hours precip. (thanks @stormkite2000 for the link).
    Healthy up tick.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can't argue with BoM's outlook for Thredbo Tomorrow.
    Siding with OCF/AXS IMO.
     
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