Event SE Aus Cut Off Low & Severe WX for 7-10th June

Jellybeans

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Here it comes (CBR):
ECD9FEFB-77C9-4DFA-AC5A-B458E024CC3E.jpeg
 

Snowmaker7

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Huge upgrades for snow levels on BOM:

ACT FORECAST - no snow level means all snow;) (obviously not going off GFS)

Wednesday 9 June​

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 3 with daytime temperatures reaching between 3 and 7.

CTs FORECAST - snow down to 500m !!

Wednesday 9 June​

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 500 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h early in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 4 and 10.
 

Wavey

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That is a bold forecast for BoM! I actually didn't think 850mb temps look quite cool enough for snow to that level but very interesting.
 
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Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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Box Hill, VIC
Huge upgrades for snow levels on BOM:

ACT FORECAST - no snow level means all snow;)

Wednesday 9 June​

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 3 with daytime temperatures reaching between 3 and 7.

CTs FORECAST - snow down to 500m !!

Wednesday 9 June​

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. Snow falling above 500 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h early in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 4 and 10.
Wednesday is 600m for Southern Tablelands
700m for Thursday.
So Canberra snow very possible based on that. It’ll be cold enough, just not sure whether there will be moisture.
 
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bas1

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Ec looking very interesting Late Thursday and Friday for the op
Looks like big accumulations ❄️❄️
 
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bas1

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I've been watching weather for 30 years as a punter.
I've never ever seen a cold pool behave like EC is progging.
Its incredible.
Indeed I’ve been waiting 15 years lol.
Could be a massive whiteout come Friday arvo Saturday am ❄️❄️❄️
 
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bas1

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The lowest snow level I have seen is 600 metres but was a long time ago
Never 500 metres though
 
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bas1

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Can someone calculate predicted snowfall over op from Thursday till Friday night
I’m seeing 70-80cm
But could be wrong
 
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Snowmaker7

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Can someone calculate predicted snowfall over op from Thursday till Friday night
I’m seeing 70-80cm
But could be wrong
Just curious, where are you seeing 70-80cm?

looking at layers on WZ I'm seeing 15-20cm at MOST Thursday evening. This is accumulated rainfall between now and 7pm Fri. Of which only about 10-15mm falls from 12pm Thurs
1623136088603.png
 
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bas1

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Just curious, where are you seeing 70-80cm?

looking at layers on WZ I'm seeing 15-20cm at MOST Thursday evening. This is accumulated rainfall between now and 7pm Fri. Of which only about 10-15mm falls from 12pm Thurs
1623136088603.png
I was checking the meteologix site for ec from Thursday morning through to Saturday morning . Lots of purple there
 
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Steve777

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The BOM forecast for tomorrow for the Central Tablelands includes “Snow falling above 500 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm”. That would imply snow in places like Bathurst, although the forecast there for tomorrow is for showers. Snow is forecast for Katoomba and Lithgow.

On Thursday, the snow level on the Central Tablelands rises to 800 metres.

 

Wally

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Franga

Jamestown​

Close Precis
Forecast issued at 5:15 am CST on Monday 7 June 2021.

Detailed Jamestown Forecast

Mon.7 JunTue.8 JunWed.9 JunThu.10 JunFri.11 JunSat.12 JunSun.13 Jun
Summary
showers.png
Windy. Showers developing.
showers.png
Showers. Wind easing.
partly-cloudy.png
Partly cloudy.
partly-cloudy.png
Partly cloudy.
partly-cloudy.png
Partly cloudy.
partly-cloudy.png
Partly cloudy.
partly-cloudy.png
Partly cloudy.
Max. Temperature19 °C7 °C10 °C11 °C14 °C15 °C15 °C
Min. Temperature3 °C3 °C1 °C1 °C5 °C5 °C


Yes, with a min of 3 in Jamestown it definitely smells like snow is on the cards for the Flinders Ranges tonight. Snow in strange places as they say...

Was in the Gammon Ranges 2 weeks ago, and IMO Mt Mckinlay and the Blue Range will have a dusting of the white stuff now!
 
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Flowin

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Can someone calculate predicted snowfall over op from Thursday till Friday night
I’m seeing 70-80cm
But could be wrong
May I ask for those of us not not in NSW or Vic and not knowledgeable on the jargon or lingo for geographical areas what do you mean by “the OP”?
I’ve guessed ST, CT, and NT are probably souther, centra, and northern tablelands but OP still confounds me.
 

Flowin

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EC’s Ensemble prediction 00z probability of snow depth over 2cm.
same caveats that @Ken Kato would probably state about assumptions of liquid solid ratio.
I do prefer ensemble systems forecasts over deterministic for locations guidance but one needs to appreciate that ensemble stats can underestimate higher amounts.
Also sorry but no equivalent plots available as far as I know for GEFS or Access ensembles

CB1D9C38-3450-46AD-9A3B-380664A0A6AF.png
 
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Steve777

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POW Hungry

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Windy is showing snow still on the ground in the NT's over the weekend. Thoughts? I am wondering whether I should attempt to go Friday after work.
Be able to find something in the NTs possibly beyond the weekend, me thinks. At high elevation it could see out the weekend, easily with accumulations/driftsof over a foot etc
 

Flowin

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The Oberon Plateau is a large upland area in the Central Tablelands West of the Blue Mountains and South of the Great Western Highway. It’s elevation is mostly mostly in the range 1,000 - 1,200 metres with a number of high points above 1,300 metres. It is a snow magnet.

Here’s a map: https://anero.id/weather-antiquities/image.html?other/gdr/oberon_plateau.jpg
Thanks for that. I took a back road thru Blue Mountains around 7 years ago when I was south of Sydney and wanted to avoid greater Sydney and stayed in Oberon. Beautiful area.
 

Flowin

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I cannot find any specific snow depth outputs for access C on WZ or weatherwatch sites. But FWIW here is latest access C 06z accumulated precipitation to 4am Thursday. (axs c Sydney domaiin)

346E356D-8055-42A3-B894-8E8F8A148AC3.jpeg
 
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Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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I cannot find any specific snow depth outputs for access C on WZ or weatherwatch sites. But FWIW here is latest access C 06z accumulated precipitation to 4am Thursday. (axs c Sydney domaiin)

346E356D-8055-42A3-B894-8E8F8A148AC3.jpeg
What about 850hPa/925hPa temp forecasts? Or snow levels?
Specifically for Tomorrow and Thurs morning.
 
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Flowin

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This trough streaming up through Western Vic is the moisture injection that really gets the NT snow going.
Watch it hook in there this AM.
A6A53DF9-E38E-460C-AE4F-A0065F2101C4.jpeg

I must say I have held a bit of skepticism watching forecasts in the lead up as to to whether the moisture could really wrap that far around the low to feed into the NT. But the forecasts have held solid now for several days.
EC's relative IVT map (Extreme forecast index) and GFS actual IVT maps.

EC IVT EFI.png


IVT_conv_64.png
 
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