Event SE Aus Cut Off Low & Severe WX for 7-10th June

Steve777

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
The cold front has passed through but it looks like nothing much has happened so far. It’s early days yet, however.

In Sydney, it’s just cleared to a sunny, blue-sky morning, not particularly cold but with a bit of a wind chill. There was about 4-10 mm across Sydney overnight, mostly falling before midnight.

We’ll see what develops.
 

Snowmaker7

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Jul 25, 2013
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Bowral, NSW
The way the media has been banging this system up this morning (and the last week), I think there'll be a lot of disappointed people that they didn't wake up to a foot of snow tomorrow. The weather channel still saying 5-20cm for Canberra! Marginally possible at the lower end but highly unlikely imo
 

Billy Bob

Hard Yards
Nov 23, 2020
96
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Bungendore
There's a solid blob of moisture slowly tracking its way towards the Oberon Plateau at the moment. Missing Bungendore/Canberra (what else is new) but there should be some snow about the higher parts of the OP shortly I reckon.

The forecast of snow down to 600 for the STs/Canberra is a sick joke. I don't know what BOM were smoking last night. Their temperature forecasts for the STs were unchanged yet they lowered the snow level from 900 m. It's a tough event to forecast but this forecast is illogical.

Karl was banging on about a potential Snowmaggedon for the region; although these points were qualified if you read his full analysis, I can't help wondering if he has succumbed to the 'clickbait' culture of social media. Meteoblue- the most reliable forecast on Windy.com- had a bit of moisture coinciding with low temps for tonight, but has completely dropped it in its last run. I was hopeful for a dusting in the hills above Captains Flat (1200 m) but even this doesn't look likely now. Meteoblue is an ensemble run by the Swiss meteorological agency; I'm assuming it gives more weight to the European models.

Unfortunately I don't have time to go up to Porters Retreat/Gurnang tomorrow. The Meteoblue forecast for Shooters Hill Cemetery (yes, it has that) shows some snow tomorrow.


If you put in Gurnang or Porters Retreat though, it changes to a mix of snow and rain. I think it all depends how much warmth is pumped in from the SE, which of course depends on the final position of the low. There is some pretty warm air further south as the Melbourne forecast indicates, and it's all rain for places like Nimmitabel.
 
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Billy Bob

Hard Yards
Nov 23, 2020
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Bungendore
The Moss Vale forecast on Windy.com (Meteoblue) suggests not. Actually all models remain fairly dry for Moss Vale overnight. It does still have some snow for Captains Flat however around midnight tonight...so there's still hope.
 
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Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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Wollongong, NSW
The Moss Vale forecast on Windy.com (Meteoblue) suggests not. Actually all models remain fairly dry for Moss Vale overnight. It does still have some snow for Captains Flat however around midnight tonight...so there's still hope.
Yeah the models don't say it will but just based on being pretty familiar with the weather patterns around the SH and Wollongong, I'd be surprised if there isn't precip of some form tonight.
 
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1000m

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Apr 19, 2015
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Re Crookwell - Radar showing we have got a fair bit more of this coming, temps may be marginal for it to settle, will post more pics during the day if it accumulates. Will go for a drive later to Redground, Roslyn etc (higher parts). I suspect Oberon plateau would be getting hit as well.
 
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Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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Wollongong, NSW
It's fairly dry across most of the CT's through today and tomorrow IMO. Some areas will get lucky IMO. But overall, nothing major like the media is hyping.

TBH it's playing out pretty much as predicted.

EDIT: Happy to be wrong ;)
Agree. NTs are still a different story IMO- should be pretty good snowfall wise up there.

I actually think Friday morning will be best for the CT, when winds turn more SW again, but still not a lot in it- maybe 5cm at best.
 
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Billy Bob

Hard Yards
Nov 23, 2020
96
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Bungendore
Yes the media will do what it does; even Weatherzone happily regurgitate some of the crap. The only source that never over hypes snow events is Blizz/Blackheath Weather.

Agree with the NTs snow potential; nice to see them get the best of it for once. They don't really get much moisture from traditional cold outbreaks these days.
 

SnowBound

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Jul 7, 2007
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Northern Beaches, Sydney
Yes the media will do what it does; even Weatherzone happily regurgitate some of the crap. The only source that never over hypes snow events is Blizz/Blackheath Weather.

Agree with the NTs snow potential; nice to see them get the best of it for once. They don't really get much moisture from traditional cold outbreaks these days.
Haven't paid the piper to follow Blackheath Weather this year.

I can only assume he's predicting what's already been said here.
 
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Billy Bob

Hard Yards
Nov 23, 2020
96
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Bungendore
I don't subscribe to him but he still posts general updates on his Twitter feed.

I'm not sure if this is common knowledge but there's now a webcam in Oberon:


It's on the golf course in town, so lower elevation than the usual haunts. But if there's a settling here then you can guarantee that there's more at higher elevations.
 

1000m

Hard Yards
Apr 19, 2015
77
143
83
Starting to settle settle in Crookwell, hills turning white

20210609_094435.jpg
 

Trail Blazer

Part of the Furniture
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Jimi on Weatherzone. Pymble, Sydney
I don't subscribe to him but he still posts general updates on his Twitter feed.

I'm not sure if this is common knowledge but there's now a webcam in Oberon:


It's on the golf course in town, so lower elevation than the usual haunts. But if there's a settling here then you can guarantee that there's more at higher elevations.
It’s turned white now
 
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Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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aeetegeg.png


Haven't had much time to look at this thread since a couple of days ago and probably won't for the next couple of days, but some of my latest thoughts on snowfall potential on the QLD side of the border (note that there were some recent downgrades in the northern limit of the snowfalls although some tiny upgrades this morning):

Reasonably low (but not impossible) potential between about midday and 5pm this afternoon
(soundings and ACCESS-C precip try to move some localised wintry showers up just across the border but moisture looks really marginal and it’d have to battle the odds to extend just high enough to try and tap into the dendritic growth zone…. the airmass in general is cold but the 1000-850hpa thicknesses look very marginal).

Reasonably low (but not impossible) potential between about 3pm and midnight Thursday
(moisture looks much better than today, even to the point of being a bit rainy in the big blob of showery/rainy/wintry stuff pivoting up from NSW but may be a close call if only its northern edge skirts the region….. airmass in general is still cold but 1000-850hpa thicknesses look marginal again).

P.S. Beautiful looking cold front and low in the satpic above. As at midday in SE QLD, it was 7.7C at Applethorpe, 9.9C in Toowoomba, 15.7C in Archerfield, and 16.3C in Brisbane. Feels-like values lower than those obviously.
 

Billy Bob

Hard Yards
Nov 23, 2020
96
241
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Bungendore
They are the hills behind Googong, around 1000 m ASL. Must have copped one of those coldies overhead. Plenty of sunshine around Canberra before then though with a warm 8.6 max here in Bungendore and a boiling 11 at Braidwood. That makes a mockery of the BOM forecasts for today and exceeded even my own forecast.

Just went down to Cooma to have a look...huge fat flakes just out of town around 900 m ASL. Road was quickly getting covered so headed back. Looks like they may have closed the road down there; the snow was certainly coming down thick and fast. Would have liked to have stayed the night at Nimmitabel but couldn't do so.

Picture of Nimmitabel around midday, courtesy of the Royal Arms Hotel. I must admit I got it wrong for down there; I thought the SE stream would be too warm.

190908848_4122392944494253_9211823718006660938_n.jpg
 

Snowmaker7

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Jul 25, 2013
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Bowral, NSW
Meanwhile with the Foehn effect it's sunny and 9 degrees in the Highlands at 700m asl. Hoping the wrap around of moisture will trickle over the divide later. Nice to see a little cell near Picton.

Edit: more cells popping up in western Sydney.
Opticast predicting a low of -5°C (and a top of 6) for Bowral tomorrow which I have never seen before. Impressive for 650m. Very possible before the cloud moves in at around 7am. Not a breath of wind atm
 

Winterwolf

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Jun 2, 2019
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Opticast predicting a low of -5°C (and a top of 6) for Bowral tomorrow which I have never seen before. Impressive for 650m. Very possible before the cloud moves in at around 7am. Not a breath of wind atm
I think the best chance we have is in the mid to late afternoon. with an easterly and plenty of precip, might just score wet snow. GFS has a max of three, which is ridiculous, but at least provides a bit of hope. Unless there's a random cloud overnight, we are stuck in middle of the precipitation donut!
 

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
It looks like the snow event has got going. Great pictures posted above.

No snow here, of course. After a sunny morning and middle part of the day in Sydney, it clouded over for a chilly afternoon. Most Sydney sites maxed close to the forecast, around 15-16°. It’s now down to around 12-13° at most Sydney sites. A couple of shower cells crossed Sydney’s North earlier this afternoon. It looked quite ominous for a while but nothing much came of it.

Here’s Sydney’s sky mid-afternoon:

004-A4-FFE-0-BAB-4-DBF-9164-7477-A4-F37398.jpg
 

Westerly Wind

Hard Yards
Jul 12, 2019
38
214
83
Orange NSW (885 m a.s.l.)
Hi WW, did Orange get much snow out of this event?
Thank you Equ1nox for you interest. It snowed pretty well for about 40 min around mid morning with big flakes. It’s didn’t really settle in the CBD as you can see in the picture of my back yard in the SW corner of Orange there was about 1 cm on the ground. Few more flakes continued on and off most of the day including now it is snowing quite well in CBD Current temp at Orange Ap is 1.1 deg. Can’t wait to get home soon!

7C657DB1-8EE7-4377-BF1E-1D56C705F03B.jpeg
 

Equ1nox

First Runs
Jun 9, 2021
2
2
3
Thank you Equ1nox for you interest. It snowed pretty well for about 40 min around mid morning with big flakes. It’s didn’t really settle in the CBD as you can see in the picture of my back yard in the SW corner of Orange there was about 1 cm on the ground. Few more flakes continued on and off most of the day including now it is snowing quite well in CBD Current temp at Orange Ap is 1.1 deg. Can’t wait to get home soon!

7C657DB1-8EE7-4377-BF1E-1D56C705F03B.jpeg
Nice, thanks for the pic! We have a house in Orange that has 2 security cameras and both stopped working a week ago so I missed seeing the first snow :-(
 
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