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SE AUS Spring Weather/Storms thread.

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Vermillion, Oct 3, 2010.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like VIC could be looking at the first set of storms this spring tomorrow night and into Tuesday, dependant on a trough.

    This is the time of year i love weather-wise, possibility of storms, fronts, cold weather including possible hail/snow, hot humid weather, a bit of everything. I heard the BoM suggest it could be a good storm season this year so we'll wait and see.
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Epic Rules?

    its 8/8 cloud here in the gong and mizzle.

    great for the GF watching at the pub [​IMG]

    go the dragons
     
    #2 Donza, Oct 3, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Thursday 7th October now looks epic on GFS and ACCESS

    [​IMG]

    20cm+ IMO if it comes off.

    [​IMG]
     
    #3 Claude Cat, Oct 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    The last hurrah.

    Oo yeah.
     
  5. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Good system to kick off October's rainfall [​IMG] Pity we don't have the storage space for it!
     
    #5 ice_man, Oct 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks even better on the 18Z GFS run, IMO
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not looking as cold on this morning's runs, but plenty of moisture - up to 50mm, IMO
     
  8. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Moisture appears to have come out of nowhere! Only a few days ago it wasn't looking like much. Now it looks like a good decent soaking.
     
  9. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Hello Nina, you beautiful thing. [​IMG]
     
    #9 h2oskier, Oct 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    The first storm of the season in Melbourne, here tomorrow.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup it looks like it could be good too, with a nice cold change afterwards. Let me check the charts then come back...
     
    #11 Vermillion, Oct 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK TotalTotals, LI, CAPE, PWat all show good indications of significant thunderstorms in the central parts of VIC tomorrow, from about lunchtime. Ill be watching and hoping for some downpours.
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Yep values look great. Geelong to Ballarat should have the closest developments to Melbourne possibly.

    Time to head off to the nutters at the WZ forums.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks juicy. 2-8pm is ripe, IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #14 Claude Cat, Oct 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Victorian radar starting to light up all over the state.
    Looks like a line of storms heading towards Melbourne from Stawell to Macedon ...
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit further east than i thought it would be, but from the radar it looks like some good totals today.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just approaching Melbourne Airport now ...
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/wea...1006-16710.html

    [​IMG]

     
    #18 Claude Cat, Oct 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pouring in St Kilda. Plenty of lightning strikes around the CBD.
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    awesome...the inlaws will be complaining again about too much rain [​IMG]

    "it always rains in Bayswater"..
     
    #20 Donza, Oct 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Boom! Party time.
     
  22. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Hail big time in SE burbs of Melb.
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chucked work in for day. Very heavy Mt Eliza way
     
  24. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Nothing too interesting in Clayton. Moderate to heavy rain, one flash of lightning when it started... that's it. No hail, nothing flood worthy.
     
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    next lot about to hit Melb. WSW behind it so probably end of it
     
  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Blardy hell look at that intense line of storms from Lorne to Beufort!
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some good totals starting to spring up. The storms will only intensify ahead of the cool change, there could be close to 50mm in some places.
     
  28. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Most models predicted 20+ mm for my home region in South Gippsland for today. Looking at the radar images I'll be surprised if we get anything significant down there.
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Serious storms to the SW of Geelong, ive just clicked over 10mm in Cranbourne, no hail as yet, it looks like the blob on Melbourne at the moment will produce good falls for an hour or so.
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those storms to the SW of Geelong are now on the move slowly eastwards, they might end up being pushed into Melbourne as the front crosses. Distinct lines of storms right through the central areas, i count 4 on the 128km Melbourne radar alone.
     
  31. VSG

    VSG Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As a young tacker living nr Werribee, I'd see all sorts of frontal weather ... massive dark fronts hammering in on us... colliding with warm air from the interior... fun. [​IMG]
     
    #31 VSG, Oct 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very heavy weather hitting the mornington peninsula, Melbourne could get a good whack in an hour.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind shifted SW here now, SE subs of Melbourne, looks like this final line of storms could be nasty.
     
  34. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Seeing lots of red in this band on the radar! Looking at the direction it's travelling, this could be the one to fill the tanks at home. If it doesn't die out.

    It's just started raining lightly at Clayton again. Can hear the thunder.
     
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Here we go!
     
  36. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    absolutely belting down in brunswick
     
  37. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    verm your prediction above was 1 minute out ...tsk tsk
     
  38. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Indeed... absolutely pelted down for about 5 minutes. Monsoon like... now it's eased back a fair bit.
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My aporragies!

    25mm at my parents place in Rowville, just under that here in Cranbourne but that will crack 30mm by the time it's over. Lots of lightning around.
     
    #39 Vermillion, Oct 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    been pouring in Canterbury last 20 minutes too.
     
  41. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    calm at newborough in gippsland at the moment. no real rain as yet just some light stuff.
    could see some lightning in the far distance back toward meld.
    looks like the only real chance of rain down here is that band passing through melb now??
    if it hold intensity,which it doesnt usually!!!!!
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    27.4mm at morrabin. 28.5 in my mordi gauge.
    Mordi winning atm
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cracked 30mm in Cranbourne.
     
  44. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    pooring in gippsland now. no thunder or lightning tho
     
  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup 31.2 mm here. But all over now
     
  46. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Farking spiders nest in my farking rain guage! [​IMG]

    No data for today's rain as a result [​IMG]

    Time to clear out the spiders nest again!
     
    #46 skiflat, Oct 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    [​IMG] will leave mine until morning.
    at a guess we have probably had about 5 or 6mm to date in gippsland
     
    #47 doogasnow, Oct 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That was a good start to storm season!

    Ok, ACCESS is predicting EPIC wet starting from the 13th right through to the 16th, may be even later.
    GFS shows good rains on the 13th but that's it. EC 13th & 14th only at this stage.

    update: 06z GFS run shows totals 25 to 50mm for Victoria for this date range.
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS suggests the high will ridge in from the west and spoilt most of the party, i think this is likely as there is quite a sizeable 'hole' going to be left for it to swing into. This would put totals closer to 20-30mm instead of well over 50mm. However, if the tropical influence/jetstream gets it's act together we may see a scenario such as AXS is predicting, with 2 very strong cold fronts combining for serious moisture.

    Big wait and see at the moment, but good signs ahead.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps a discussion for another thread, but how does everyone think the ACCESS model is performing? IMO a lot better than GASP but I tend to favour EC and GFS over it.