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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Oct 3, 2010.
A beautiful day in Dorrigo today.
Storms all FIZZED out over Sunbury/Melton
there was good seabreeze today maybe the cool air killed them
Looks like another bust of heavy rain coming in to the northern suburbs.
GFS showing 50mm+ for Melbourne over the next 48 hours.
EC has gone crazy and is showing 76mm over the same period. It's showing up heavier rain for Sunday.
UKMet is also 50mm+ by the looks of it, perhaps the bulk arriving late tomorrow early Sunday.
This is another system that's going to be hard to prog - the location of the low and the speed it travels will make the difference from a 20mm fall and 80mm fall.
GFS, next 48 hours
Should i even hope that cricket will be on Tomorrow in Benalla! That should mean a complete washout depends on when it comes through i spose
Depends upon what time it comes through. I expect it to be pretty wild here in Melbourne late in the afternoon and right through to Sunday morning.
Judging by GFS it should start developing around 5pm on Saturday, access looks like early hours of Sunday morning
Looks very wet on the radar, could be an interesting afternoon and night tonight.
Just starting to get very wet outside.
BOM starting to issue the usual warnings.
I expect road weather alerts shortly, and some more floodwatches.
Coming hard and fast here in the SE subs, the trip home in an hour or so could be interesting. Windy too and there are heaps of inbedded thunderstorms.
Lots and lots of thunder around now, cant see the lightning but it's there.
Another glorious day here in Sydney. Today will be the 5th beach day in a row. Hellllloooooooooo summer!!
Saturated driving a bobcat today.
Look forward to the same tomorrow.
At least today was warm.
The bulk of the moisture will fall East of Melbourne tonight. A good storm just went through me.
IMO a little bit of a fizzer so far, only 3mm today since 9am.
Hopefully the expected rain late this afternoon and tonight makes up for it.
Mind you for the entire event we're around 35mm which isn't too shabby.
22mm in the last 24 hours here and 2mm since 9am...
Mostly a fizzer so far today, got some gardening done had to stop a few times for heavy showers though and some thunder....
Mostly missing Melbourne most of the afternoon really watching back on the radar!
FIZZES out around Melton again
GFS/ACCESSR still saying 20-40mm to come..
Its hit and miss really. Some places have got lots, others nothing much at all.
GFS next 24 hours:
Storms forming NW of Melbourne inbedded in the rainband and heading towards Melbourne, could be a very wet night.
Swan Hill closing in on 50mm, and other areas surrounding the Murray getting some good totals too. Im wondering how this is going to affect the river towns should the NE get ~100mm in the next 24 hours. Everything is already soaked.
Another nice day on the North Coast. Strong NE sea breeze keeping things cool but sensational tucked away in the lee of the headland. Sawtell looking beautiful.
Major flooding in sunday creek catchment near tallarook. will be heading up tomorrow to check out if our roads are left intact
Good luck, looks messy. At least it's not too windy.
Thanks it should be ok, its mostly deep granitic soils up there and they wash out easily. Nothing the landcrusher cant handle!
well actually there are areas it cant handle
this was our 'driveway' after first big rain
i expect it to be worse tomorrer
did i say it got really soft, too?
Get some tracks for the cruiser, that'll sort it out.
GFS now progging another considerable rain system in a weeks time, this is great.
Not doing my fishing trips any favours though.
No definitely not, plus ive only got 1 week left at my current job and 27 days leave to use, when I start the new job no leave accumulated which is going to make going out fishing very difficult midweek. And these fronts/troughs on the weekend are very annoying, how's about rain all week and a nice weekend for once???
You might be in luck for the next week... this rain isn't going away until next Saturday, according to ACCESS.
Flew home from Queensland today (hence my absence )... was a very rough ride from about Tamworth onwards.
Your areas has had good rain last night and today ice man you should be happy. Yarram getting some good totals, im just looking up Mirboo and they have done well too.
All extended charts looking very complex. Tropical SE for a week or 2 more
Sure is looking wet. Maybe we have just begun...
Close to 100mm for Buller over event.
Rivers will be firing fishing wise this summer.
around 60mm for the event here. Last night was a bit of a fizzer, 17mm overnight, but overall a nice system.
EC has another 40mm spread over the next 10 days.
65mm at Rowville, not too bad. Some areas have caned it in the last 3 days.
Lingering trough by the looks of things for the rest of the week.
this was the dabyminga creek on the way to our property near tallarook this morning. there's a fun alternative 4wd way also fortunately
just looking at some rainfall stats. Albury is 3mm off its wettest november on record. looking at the next few days it could easily happen.
I saw some photos from bridgewater on the loddon taken this morning. the river is back up a few metres and flooding big time.
I've been camping up at Watch Lake since thurs, emptied gauge and 85mm out of this event here in Bendigo. Had to detour around flood waters adding 200km to a 190km on home trip, still had to go through a lot of water over roads.
Eppalock is full(up about 15% this event)and thundering over the spillway... at least 15years since that happened
That's pretty sensational to seeEppalock full. Bendigo must be rejoicing? It was only 7.7% full at the same time last year!
I'm wondering if we'll see Eildon get to 70%.
Looks like more troughy rain Wednesday onwards.
Weekend has the possibility of wet again too. Sunday EC and ACCESS have it wet and getting wetter the following week. Will I ever get out in the boat this year?
You gotta take the plunge and go out if it's raining but not too windy. Surely the centre console can hack some wet weather?
this morning 10 day access chart is a Noah's ark job.
The rain is not good news for anyone trying to harvest a cereal crop. If the predicted rain for the next week happens anyone who hadn't harvested before last saturday will be stuffed. I guess the positive is that more rain will load up the profile for next year, but that won't pay the outlay for this years crop.
I was speaking to a landscaper mate probably a month or so ago now about drainage for gardens. I still vaguely remember the high rainfall years in the 90's and when designing my garden this year put down heaps of drainage away from the house to the storm water breather, and made sure the garden beds and turf were adequately drained. I wonder how many other people who have built homes in the past 10 years have thought about over-flowing and drainage etc, with the dry weather and lack of consistent big rain systems there could be some serious issues with house foundations as well as gardens now that were are getting average/above average rainfall.
Rain I can deal with.
Mind you ACCESS looks like a monsoon for that period!
I had my whole garden landscaped when I moved in, plans were set and work had started on the job.
About a week into it, we had a massive deluge of rain, heavy heavy rain for about an hour... Showed me a few areas which were going to cause a problem.
Addition of LOTS more drainage and all is good now