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SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Dec 1, 2010.

  1. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Not really. Dry in Adelaide and Woomera, average to above average rainfall everywhere else.
     
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    That's actually a relatively old forecast, expect a newer one in about a week.

    The temperature forecast said a very high chance of above average temps over Victoria, and look what we're getting [​IMG]
     
    #1052 ice_man, Feb 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    As i have expressed previously those seasonal outlooks really are a waste of time.
     
    #1053 Snow Blowey, Feb 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It seems not to have panned out right this time.

    [​IMG]

    Clearly Mildura has most of it's ytd rainfall in late January!! Although this map is for Feb onwards. Melbourne pretty much exceeded Feb averages within the first week!
     
    #1054 Claude Cat, Feb 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Hmmm, some models are suggesting a return to El Nino conditions later in the year. I personally dont see it but recent rapid warming of the waters of the coast of Peru are a little worrying. [​IMG]

    Hopefully the massive amount of cooler subsurface water left over from the current La Nina Event can counteract the current warming. The next few weeks will be pretty crucial i reckon. At best i think we will see cool/neutral conditions by mid winter/spring.

    As it stands this Lanina has been a bit of a flop as far as summer rainfall goes for the East coast of NSW and Vic. I guess it was inlands turn after such a long drought. Currently sitting on about 25% of our average thus far for most of the Sydney, Illawara and Hunter regions.
     
    #1055 davidg, Feb 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Next 7 days is starting to shape up on GFS too.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1056 Claude Cat, Feb 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Both EC and GFS have downgraded this weekend's rains - but we still could be in for 25mm, and that moisture isn't going away.
     
  8. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Wow, i cant beleive the regular heavy rain events Central Vic and NSW have been receiving this summer. Ballarat already 300mm YTD with more to come later this week. Liking the look of the Bullseye over the Nowra/Woolongong/Sydney area. We'll gladly take some the rainfall off your hands.

    Lake levels across the Snowy are looking good as well, Lake Eucumbene is just up over 30% for only the second time in 5 years! Made even more impressive by the fact that its only February. Would be great to see it return to its pre 2006 levels.
     
  9. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well bath tub still full at Camp Mulhe!!

    Minor flooding level of Snowy Ck again on Saturday and indications of heavy flash flooding(Floodway damaged near Harkerway Prop)last farm property beside Omeo Highway as leave farmland of Mitta Mitta/Granite Flat Plains.

    Mt Wills Ck has been consistantly high for best part of 3mths!

    How much water does Dartmouth have at moment? Cos other side of Mt Wills(Big River Catchment) must be running hard too.

    Them white water kyakers must be loving this turn of events.

    Am starting to wonder if this trough/tropical moisture feed will stop at all!!
    Fire season for Nth East may come late but most dangerous warmer months are just about gone!!
    And Kiewa just out from Bandianna is high still.Must have cut highway in recent days to Tallangatta ;Hume appears full too.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Well it looks like the north of Vic will have plenty of TS activity right through till Saturday.
    GFS 9am jumped back on board with rainfall for week-end, lets see what the next couple of runs and EC say.
    Dartmouth was about 58% last time I looked.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Latest BOM charts look very interesting.
    Another bombing low on Friday night / Saturday morning.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1061 Claude Cat, Feb 15, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    looking juicy again
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Stormcast suggesting a possibility of storms in Melbourne this afternoon. Western Victoria looks set to be hammered.
     
  14. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    solid drenching rain in wagga for the last 3 hours. About 20mm so far at my place and continuing.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Yeh, radar image shows a solid block of rain in all directions around that way.
     
  16. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Going to lunch while going is good!!

    Will monitor reports as day progresses.

    Is Wagga Wagga the new rain capital of Sthn Hemisphere?? It seems to be raining all time up there!!

    Good to see Dartmouth on way up.Thanks C/C for figure.
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Cheers for your updates Claude, over in Japan I didnt bring my computer so I dont have my weather links saved, nor the time to forecast, so it's good someone is writing it up here, looks wet back there, hopefully it all continues for the next 9 months now [​IMG]
     
    #1067 Vermillion, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    PS - I reckon you can delete the 'heatwaves' part from this thread title [​IMG]
     
    #1068 Vermillion, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    [​IMG]

    STW up for southern Vic. Will update.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1069 Claude Cat, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Should have called the SE AUS Summer Epic floods thread?
     
    #1070 Claude Cat, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    It would have been more accurate!
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Incoming. (will update)

    [​IMG]
     
    #1072 Claude Cat, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  23. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Had some serious rumbles and some heavy drops here in Brighton. Looks like an interesting arvo if the storms over yarra valley keep building and moving this way. Should be a fun night, not so fun at footy training however.
     
  24. ians 158

    ians 158 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard core rain in Boronia.Just started.
    Thunder as well.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Nothing here in Canterbury. Didn't see anything in St Kilda either.
     
  26. ians 158

    ians 158 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Still going here,the missus just got home and said in some of the dips in Boronia rd the water was up to the bottom of her doors.
     
  27. pezza

    pezza First Runs

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Bayswater got absolutely smashed in that storm. water in the bend in my street was well over 2 feet deep with 1 car having to get a tow out from a forbie. i literally boogie borded in my backyard but all the water had mostly destroyed the vegie/herb patch [​IMG]
     
    #1077 pezza, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Just had a quick look at the radar and it looks like you guys have been smashed! 30mm in my rain gauge in Rowville.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    We've had 10mm in the last hour, but I think there's a bit to come, plenty of rumbles.
    Looks like the SE and outer East got pretty smashed in the first storm.
     
  30. ians 158

    ians 158 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raining lightly now at Boronia,still got a bit to go looking a the radar.Scorseby is showing 44.4 mm since 6pm.
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    It looks like there is a LOT of lightning on the radar, you lucky buggers I always miss the good lightning shows! Oh well we're due for 30cms+ here tomorrow so it's something a least.
     
  32. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Heh not even a spot at my place in Pt Cook
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Kilsyth & Boronia reporting more than 80mm!
     
  34. ians 158

    ians 158 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Couldn't see it through he rain,big fat drops.
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Storms have no time for the west side.
     
    #1085 Vermillion, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Holy batdroppings! The creeks will be smashed.
     
    #1086 Vermillion, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. ians 158

    ians 158 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Damm,gotta get a rain gauge,i usually just go off Scoresby.
     
    #1087 ians 158, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    I used to for a long time but found that even Rowville which is less than 5km from the Scoresby gauge can be off by a long way (usually I get more than Scoresby). Crazy how such little distances can make such a difference.
     
    #1088 Vermillion, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Knoxfield 50mm+
    Dandy similar numbers.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Looks like the cell is headed your way.
     
    #1090 Claude Cat, Feb 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Spits at my place, but I think that's all we'll see. This line of showers is almost stationary.
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    OS skiing and still posting. Ridiculous.
    around 30mm in my gauge.
     
    #1092 The Plowking, Feb 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    20mm all up in Canterbury.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    9am GFS has ramped up rainfall expectations through till Sunday. Now showing 75mm+ for Melbourne and 100mm+ for central and lower ranges.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Looks like a good chance of storms right through the SE and Tasmania today.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1095 Claude Cat, Feb 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    GFS has gone a little over the top with this one IMO.
     
    #1096 ice_man, Feb 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Wouldn't be surprised cat. I work on the 20th floor of a building in Sydney CBD and looking out towards the Blue Mountains is getting a classic summer soupy pre-storm haze.

    Blackening further out towards the hills.
     
  48. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    Judging by the size of the cumulus clouds growing over the bay at the moment, I'd say that Melbourne's SE suburbs were going to get rained on again this evening.
     
  49. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: SE AUS Summer Weather: Heatwaves & Storms thread

    There is a big cell forming over the flinders area on the radar tracking that way PG so I think your 100% correct. I live in Brighton and I'm excited for that to happen again. Last night I was at footy training when the storm hit, at least today I'll be inside to keep dry
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And so it starts for today.
    [​IMG]
    (will update)
     
    #1100 Claude Cat, Feb 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013