Season 2008 (Observed Snow Depth)

warrie

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Jun 15, 2008
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Indeed we have, it's still 2 weeks till the end of August which is usually the peak depth at the Snowy Hydro sites. It's also difficult to correlate the two pix. Yes the extent is not there this year but who can say about the depth so far? Nice work though Gerg.
 

Gerg

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Sep 8, 2001
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I agree it's a dubious comparison, though I think I have the image registration close to right. It's likely that the lowish-res MODIS image wouldn't resolve snow beneath dense tree canopy, which would be a fair bit of the area below abt 1550m - especially in the south.

G.
 

Gerg

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So season peak will be 174.2cm baring a late September accident. Time to update the long term trends:

SpencersCreekSnowDepths.png
 
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Gerg

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One last graph for you. Here is the Spencers record plotted as weekly anomalies - the difference between the recorded depth and the mean depth for that day of the year.

Tell me there isn't less blue (+ve anomaly), more red (-ve anomaly), with time...

SpencersCreekAnomaly.png
 
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Taipan

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Jul 5, 2001
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Actually what i did find interesting was that the downward trend has flattened over the last 10 years.

If it had continued on we would be closer to a trend depth of about 80cm, as apposed to around the 1m mark.

It will be interesting to see the trend in about ten years time if the planet continues to cool.
 

Gerg

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Taipan said:
Actually what i did find interesting was that the downward trend has flattened over the last 10 years.

Correct. I said last graph, but ... if you extend the earlier "compare the halves" thing to thirds, you can see clear evidence of that. The reduction nearly all happens between the first and second thirds of the record.

This technique loses power the more times you cut the data. It becomes difficult to distinguish signal from the noise. Ditto for that current "cooling", IMO.

SpencersCreekThirdRecordMean.png
 
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WickedPowder

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Taipan said:
Actually what i did find interesting was that the downward trend has flattened over the last 10 years.

If it had continued on we would be closer to a trend depth of about 80cm, as apposed to around the 1m mark.

It will be interesting to see the trend in about ten years time if the planet continues to cool.

COOLING????

You guys must be smoking some great stuff.....please share!

Tiapan you say it with such conviction, do you have any soruces for your statement.

According to NASA's data 2005 was the hotest year ever on record and 2007 was the
2nd hotest while 1998 was the 3rd hotest. Doesnt apear to be a cooling trend.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

The main thing I see in that chart is a rapid decline in the number of above average days, that have almost disapeared. I dont see the trend flatenning or reversing in any way.
 
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Gerg

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Seems you haven't met our resident skeptic ("denier" would be way too harsh). The world is actually a little cooler this year; whether you look at the HADCRUT, NOAA or GISS series. It's called statistical noise, or, if you prefer, weather.

And the "thirds" analysis does seem to suggest that our snow depth reduction might have slowed over the last decade or two. The problem there is that Spencers is a very noisy series. Humans have an inherent tendency to see patterns in things - even completely random things. It's part of what made us what we are. But it makes us want to seriously over-analyse or "over fit" models to noisy data, which could be what's happening here. The antidote, of course, is statistical rigor, which I haven't applied.
 
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WickedPowder

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We have met, frankly I'm not into calling anyone a denier, Tiapan raises some good points and is able to reference his material.

We will always read the litrature that is on our side of the debate with a aim to agree with it, while we read those articles on the other side with an aim to discredit them.

For Taipan this is a rebutal to David Even's Hot Spot argument http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/The_Saturated_Greenhouse_Effect.htm

David also believes that the world has been cooling since 2001, I unfortunatly can not find any data to support the cooling statement.

This year has cooled a bit, albeit well inside many anomoallies that have occured on previous years. I think it is simply a blip from an la nina and will ultimatly continue to rise, lets hope im wrong...
 
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Gerg

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Steepest decline on record? Not quite. 1998 was similar - and earlier - but from a lower start. Coincidentally, 1998 was the hottest year on record according to the HadCRUT series (just pipped by 2005 on GISS).
 

BH

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Cooling please!!! Taipan its time to wake up and join the year 2008. Its getting hotter our winters are getting shorter. Its not all bleak though I think our small winters will generally become alot harsher with severe weather beating through the mountains from July and August.
 

Sandy

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BH said:
Cooling please!!! Taipan its time to wake up and join the year 2008. Its getting hotter our winters are getting shorter. Its not all bleak though I think our small winters will generally become alot harsher with severe weather beating through the mountains from July and August.

Before you pass judgment on Taipan's comment, please restrict you comments some supporting data, rather than opinion without data.
However, Taipan should have posted some supporting data.

There is reasonable evidence to suggest that the "rise in temperatures" has leveled off in the last 10 years. I'm not 100% convinced but the data is reasonable.
Read some of the threads in CV.

For example:
before-and-after.jpg
 
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Gerg

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Fair enough. But it's not at all clear what one blogger's mad obsession with Michael Mann and tree rings has to do with global temperature in the last decade?
 

Sandy

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Gerg said:
Fair enough. But it's not at all clear what one blogger's mad obsession with Michael Mann and tree rings has to do with global temperature in the last decade?

That's true. However, it pays to keep an open mind, and absorb all of the information, rather than reject only some of it out of hand.
 
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