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Season 2012 snow depth

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Gerg, May 31, 2012.

  1. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    <ol style="list-style-type: decimal"><li> Spencers Creek snow depth data is from Snowy Hydro Limited.</li><li> Depths are recorded on a measuring course north of the Kosciusko Road between the Spencers Creek crossing and Charlotte Pass, at about 1830m elevation. This is a relatively high-altitude, natural snow site (no snowmaking or grooming).</li><li> The measurement method is described here. Measurements are generally made every Thursday, but the series is far from uniformly sampled. One early year is poorly sampled (1954), while others are heavily sampled (as often as daily in parts of 1955-1960).</li><li> To produce a uniformly sampled series for analysis the data plotted here have been resampled every Thursday, by zero-filling at the start and end of each season's record and gap filling by linear interpolation.</li><li> The 7-day moving averages and moving medians are plotted centred, and are lightly Gaussian-smoothed (5-day FWHM). (The median is the middle value - where half the seasons are deeper, half thinner.)</li><li> The average and median of the annual peak depths exceed the peaks of the moving average and moving median depths because the annual peak depths do not all occur in the same week of the year.</li><li> The 2012 season peak depth prediction was made in April from a multiple linear regression model based on AAO, SOI, IOD and calendar year. The estimate is ± 53 cm at 1-sigma (~70% likelihood), assuming the parameter predictions are spot-on.</li></ol>
     
    #1 Gerg, May 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  2. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    The full record, updated:

    [​IMG]

    And anomalies from the mean curve:

    [​IMG]

    And the basic trends:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Season integral depth is my preferred index of season quality, because it incorporates the effects of season length as well as depth. It's the area beneath the annual snow depth curve, calculated by adding together the depths for each week of the year.

    G.
     
    #2 Gerg, May 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  3. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    And the decades (unchanged):

    [​IMG]
     
    #3 Gerg, May 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    And the cycles, by Fourier analysis (also unchanged). For context, I add background points derived from Fourier analysis of 10 randomly generated depth series with similar statistics to ours, but with no cycles.

    The real data plots well within the range that would be expected from random variation alone, except right at 2 years. So, to the extent that there is any cycle at all, it's a very weak 2 year one.

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Gerg, May 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  5. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    And the correlations (2011 in bold):

    [​IMG]

    Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the difference between Tahiti and Darwin surface atmospheric pressures expressed as monthly standard deviations x10. It is an indicator of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an east-west quasicycle in Pacific Ocean surface temperature and wind patterns which correlates with precipitation across much of Australia, including with alpine snow. A positive SOI is associated with more (and some say wetter) Australian snow.

    Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-cycle north-south variation in the western Pacific Ocean, closely related (but not equivalent) to yet another mode called the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It doesn't noticeably correlate with our snow depths.

    Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an ENSO-like variation in the smaller Indian Ocean, which correlates with precipitation across southern Australia, including with alpine snow.

    Antarctic Oscillation (AAO; also called &quot;Southern Annular Mode&quot;) is a measure of how tightly the circumpolar winds (&quot;polar vortex&quot; in one usage) blow around the pole. A loose pattern (negative AAO) leads to more polar storms reaching southern Australia, and more snow.
     
    #5 Gerg, May 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  6. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    I will go with a (guess) of 15.5cm for the first reading of the season at Spencers Creek. If I am right, everyone owes me two bucks.
     
  7. D_Dog

    D_Dog Hard Yards

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    great stuff gerg.
     
  8. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We bow before you oh Great Gerg.

    BTW I recently helped run a course of forecast verification and one of the attendees worked at Snowy Hydro. When I showed her some the analysis you do on the snow depth data she was quite amazed to the extents that you go to, as well as pleased that someone was so interested in the data.
     
  9. D-eye

    D-eye Photographer and skier Moderator

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    that sounds like it should be a sisfm question
     
    #9 D-eye, May 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  10. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    sis fm is that a lesbian radio station?
     
  11. D-eye

    D-eye Photographer and skier Moderator

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    #11 D-eye, May 31, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  12. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Welcome to 2012 Gerg. All that 44 unit Maths and the prediction of 160 cm is =+ or - 53 cm! Ouch. So it could be as low as 107 cm or crack the 2m barrier - for which we are overdue. It's an Olympics year and all those since 1980 not ending in an 8 have been OK. 2012 could be a good one... W
     
  13. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Olympics ... got a chart for that one w ... can't manage without ... brain locks up.
     
  14. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    I see Thredders have 20cm up. Hope they're not just running with my guess.
     
    #14 Gerg, Jun 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  15. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    34.8cm reading at Spencers
    17.8cm at Deep Creek

    glad I was almost 20cm short for Spencers
     
  16. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    37 this coming thursday IMO
     
  17. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Wow Spencers and Deep creek must have got some windblown.
    I'm going for 52cm for Spencers and 23cm for DC by next Thursday.
     
  18. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Surprise, surprise for PB with 16cm overnight and rising as I type. So the 52 cm level has been attained by Sunday morning and no-ones complaining that it's arrived early!! But poor old Selwyn has missed out. Cabramurra next to Selwyn at 1500 metres gets 15mm as r##n while at 1700metres it falls as snow at PB. Yet Friday Flat at 1390m has snow. You can't fight that adiabatic lapse rate but there's something strange going on here. Go figure!...W
     
  19. canestocks

    canestocks Hard Yards

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    Wow up to 50cm already. Is that Gergs +50 so now we start counting? A good season.. 50 1m days at Three Mile Dam!
     
  20. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Best start to Spencers Ck depth to this date since 2000. It's the Olympic year factor at work again - maybe... W
     
  21. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

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    37.5cm as at 7th June.
     
  22. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Looking at the cam's I would've guessed a touch more than that, at least we know it is 37.5cm of thick, compacted ice with all the frozen rain that's in it. It'll probably melt a lot more slowly than a normal early season dump.
     
  23. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Interestingly that's very close to the long term average ... somehow feels better than that. I'll repost the chart at intervals so we don't have to wade back to the top of the thread.
     
    #23 Gerg, Jun 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Long AAO has updated. Looking a touch better, maybe? (Remember we want negative, esp for July and August.)

    [​IMG]
     
    #24 Gerg, Jun 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. freedom

    freedom Hard Yards

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    Great info to read as always guys, ty :)

    It occured to me reading this that the average taken over the past 60 odd years reflects both sides of the decline in conditions over the years.. so I was thinking it's probably fair to say it does feel better than the average we've become accustomed to in the latter half of the decline.

    Or in easier to digest words, being close to the long term average also seems to me to be a good thing against today's expectations.

     
  26. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's Friday..where is the update? [​IMG]
     
    #27 Rush, Jun 15, 2012
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  28. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    My thoughts too. C'mon Snowy Hydro, hurry up!
     
  29. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Only 2.2cm increase at 1830 m for Spencers but a 6cm decrease at Deep Creek at the approx.1600m level. No wonder Smiggins is looking so poorly. Still Gerg's graph should have its dot right on the lurid deep pink line which is average so we aren't behind the pack yet and the next few days look promising....W
     
  30. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Issues ... anyone know why Fireftp doesn't like .png files? Only get partial transfer??
     
  31. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Spencers at 46.4, a gain of 8.7cm. This should put Gerg's grey dot on the blue median line and just a tad below average. But we know what's coming [​IMG] ..........W
     
    #31 warrie, Jun 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  32. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Have you gone into settings and set it to automatic instead of binary or asci? Works for me.

    Still no strong fronts across the Central Tablelands of NSW this season. Its now seven years since we've had snow at Wentworth Falls, on the ground snow that is. This is a record, from what we can tell, in at least the last forty years but more like the last century or more, from what we can see in the records...
     
    #32 BlueMountains, Jun 26, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  33. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    a look at three mile and deep creek data looks to be pointing to this year struggling at low altitudes and/or anything north
     
  34. canestocks

    canestocks Hard Yards

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    Readings looking very similar to 1990 - good year that. Interesting numbers tomorrow and then projections for this weekend.
     
  35. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    82cm update from snowy Hydro
     
  36. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    For comparison so far:

    [​IMG]

    Looks like 1990 had much more snow than now [​IMG] 108cm more to be exact.
     
    #36 badabing, Jun 28, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes but at least the line is pointing the right direction!
     
  38. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1990 is pretty analogous for deep creek as well, just a tad behind.
     
  39. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Not that it matters too much but I'm pretty sure the equivalent reading for the 1990 depth is 97.2 cm which isn't too much more compared to our 82 cm. There's no chance this system over the weekend will deliver 108 cm to get us equal with the 190 cm in the 1990 chart but we could potentially hit 110 cm by next Thursday which is pretty outstanding for June.
     
  40. canestocks

    canestocks Hard Yards

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    Actually only 15cm more than on today's, the bulk of the 1990 fall was in the first few days of July. Forecast not looking so good to follow this.

    Snap just saw Dacer.
     
  41. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    1990 was due to 2 major snow storms... i.e. 2 great weeks of snowfall. Not out of the question, but will need some bigger events than the ones on the program at the moment.

    Personally, I think we're looking at something like 1995, but a little bit bigger. That was a 215cm maximum in first week of August. I'm going for 230cm maximum with a similar shape.

    Check it out - http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowDepth.asp?pageID=46&amp;parentID=6
     
    #41 PowWow, Jun 28, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  42. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Gerg, Are you having issues putting up an updated snow depth prediction? Been hanging for the latest...
     
    #42 PowWow, Jun 29, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  43. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    With 8 cm overnight PB should be at 90 cm and rising. Another 10 in the next 24 hrs and the magic metre mark materialises. With 1990 being before many were alive/cogent look back to just last year on Snowy Hydro site. The first week of NSW school hols gave a 1 m accumulation going from 60 to 160 cm. Today we're going neck and neck with 2011 and the next few days should match that then peter out. So it's happy days with the link open and sunny icons for next w/e crowds..... W
     
  44. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Think it's a good year? You're right! A bit of back of the envelope stuff - looking at those tiny pale blue dots on Gerg's graph as of today - July 1st, there's only 9 years in 59 years of records above the 105 centimetre mark. This is the depth at Spencers Creek this morning extrapolating from 23 cm in two days at PB added to 82 at SC. 2012 is beating every year since 1990,except 2004 where we are 25cm less.
    Of course picking a convenient date means nothing if a big dump started on this date like last year. Still, the next 48 hours look promising and will give some of those other years a run for the money. Whatever way it goes, 2012 is up there with the best (so far).....W
     
  45. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    After passing Spencer's today I think next reading should come in at around 1.2 -1.3 metre's.
    May even be higher looking at some of the drifts.
    Any other estimates??
     
  46. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    [​IMG]
     
    #46 Gerg, Jul 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  47. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love being ahead of the curve
     
  48. badabing

    badabing Hard Yards

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    This season's looking good so far. This Thursday I think the 1m mark will be cracked.
     
  49. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    This Friday we will see 2012 fall behind 2011 and be waaaaay behind 1990. Still confident that we can hit the 1995 mark though with some consistent falls through to August (and possibly a big bopper around the 13th July).

    p.s. Thanks Gerg for the updated predictions. Funny that we are still only looking at 160cm when we're ahead of the curve this year. I'll never understand stats [​IMG]
     
    #49 PowWow, Jul 3, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  50. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    With several 10cm falls and a few further top ups over the last week the Spencers reading should be approaching 120cm. Subtract sublimation and compaction at say 20% to arrive at 110cm for this afternoons Snowy Hydro reading. That's the good news for higher elevations. As for 3 Mile Dam near Selwyn the natural cover is skimpy at best.....W