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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Gerg, May 31, 2012.
Still struggling with that fancy phone Vego?
Yeh Rabi, phat fingers.....
Stay on topic.
A tad surprising thinking it would only have gone up a few
Has there ever been a season so completely average?
overall a pretty average sort of winter so far..
- take note toddles.
Might be average for Spencers but disastrous for 3 Mile Dam aka Selwyn. Depth there is zero so if it weren't for snowmaking..... And Deep Creek at the 1600m level is barely over 30 cm hence all the grass on the Thredbo cams. IMO it's only average at the higher levels, the lower are woeful...W
Oh its pretty ordinary for Buller, Baw Baw, Lake Mountain as well.
The track of snowdepth vs the historical average is uncanny.
Yeah. No snow on the toboggan run other than a man-made strip surrounded by black mud at LM for the last 2.5 weeks. It had better start snowing, and snowing hard.
yeah agreed guys pattern need to change quick smart or its just going to be another poor/average season again.
There's still hope people. Compare 2003 to 2012 on the Snowy Hydro site for instance. Spencers is almost identical so far with Deep Creek and 3 Mile Dam very similar shapes with a slight timeshift(including 0cm flat line in July at 3 Mile).
Could be looking at some great September skiing yet
You don't judge the quality of a ski season by statistics alone. If you have been skiing perisher this season it's been consistently cold, lots of regular top ups, only warmed up for a few days and one smallish rain event. Snow making has improved, snow farming and grooming have all come a long way since 2003 and whatever other season you compare everything to. I judge a season by how early Mt.Perisher opens and if its still open closing weekend and the quality of snow that goes with it.
You could say the season has been good above 1700m.
Below that pretty dire.
I would say average season above 1700m- Along way from good....
Personally I have had a great season at Thredbo. 11 days on snow and a couple of good days with 15cm and lots of windblown.
Been a disaster in tas, Every front has Been pushed to the north, the lack of classic nw/sw fronts this winter particularly in July has been the problem
agreed squid. traditional sw blasts have been a non event so far this season,hence why baw baw & lake mountain have have suffered big time to date this season.hopefully august/sept make up some ground a little? still hope yet imo
September is almost a waste of time. Come the end of August (and the end of winter) peoples' thoughts turn to things other than snow. In past years when there has been good snow in September, nobody goes to Lake Mountain other than a few die hard skiers.
Without the classic nw/sw Systems I can't see the max snow depth reaching any great heights, IMO it will bounce around what it is now.
A trawl thru the stats for Deep Ck - elevation 1620m about that of Smiggins carpark or bottom of Roller Coaster. 25 years, 1988 to present. Call it August 1st depth. Average 61cm, median 59cm and 33cm on he ground now. 6 years worse, 18 better.
3 Mile Dam at 1460m and a few km from Selwyn. Highly variable readings so average meaningless at 19cm and median 12cm. 9 years 5cm or less and only 5 yrs over 40cm. 2012 is equal worst with '05,'97 and '92. Yes that 1992 in which the depth reached 78cm 7 weeks later. Dream on...W
It's striking how defined the higher snow line is this year in the Snowy Mts - at 1600 metres there are many places with nothing - at best the south facing slopes have a few patches left down to 1450 - there are just a few spots left at Wilson's Valley. Sponars Valley and Rennix Corner are eerily bare as.
But above 1650 the south slopes just get better and better - and at 1750 the north slopes and valleys are still all white despite many days of sunshine and little follow up snow falls.
Since early June - it's been consistently quite cold above 1800 metres - the clear sky sunny days are still cold more days than not - with only a few warm days and only one significant rain event and the SC chart shows no recorded loss in snow depth Thursday to Thursday - just a steady build - that as Gerg shows is right on average.
Looking back over the charts back to 1954 - the season could still go pretty much in any direction. There are plenty of years with more snow at this date - and plenty with less. And both can be found in any decade. Look at 54 itself then 56 and 58 - and then 65 66 67 and 69. 73 and 75 also bombed - and 71 and 77 were only saved from below average by single storms. And the numbers repeat decade after decade. The one missing element are big years to match the drought years.
Overall the season this year in NSW is traveling ok - there's a "metre plus" in place and the nights and days are cold enough to keep it in good condition for the next day. And keep the snow makers humming night after night. Compared to two weeks ago Perisher looks fine for a marginal year - and this applies to artificial and natural snow areas. Eyre and Mt P were great today.
Meanwhile, the main range at 2000 meters up is nicely covered in near pure white and there is no rain gully damage on the surface after the recent top ups.
Will it now peak with a warmer August like it did last year - that's the big question. There are plenty of examples of such in the SC records.
The next significant system will have a major impact on how this season turns out IMO. The base at the majors is adequate but still a little on the low side. If the next big system ends up being warm/rain things will look a quite dodgey for a while and by the time enough new snow falls to fix it up much of peak season will be gone. On the other hand we are due for a big fall as its unusual to go through a whole season without at least one. If that does happen next the majors will have a handy base that will see them through to September and it would kick start the little resorts for peak season.
Of course for now neither looks too likely and it will just simmer along doing not much. I don't belive that will happen for too much longer though. The troughs that come with late winter/early spring will start to appear soon and trigger something off.
So on averages, 50% of years have a big dump between now and end of season?
Going by Gergs graph the w/e 04 Aug (thats this week)is a fizzer with only 1 "dump" in 58 years. Even the weeks either side are only 7 in 58 which is worse than once in 8 years. Meanwhile a consistent southerly flow over eastern Oz is keeping temps cold and as Rocketboy elucidates, there's minimal snowmelt. Oh and the complete absence of NW cloudbands, lows peaking over SW WA and blocking lows over NZ are making 2012 interesting....W
You could look at Gregs graph and say there is a 65.5% chance of a dump by the end of the week,fingers crossed.
Can't see any significant cold outbreaks for the next two weeks at this stage, that is a worry. Things could pick up though.
Its probably the worst I've ever seen in the Blue Mountains for snow, our snowfalls are disappearing for sure. Lower level snow is becoming rarer.
Lets hope mid to late August kicks on.
I guess there's some double-ups there (years with more than one late-season dump in the count), but near enough right. Interesting, no?
Week-to-week variations are just noise ... I'm sure there's nothing special about that first week of August.
112.7 cm, first downgrade of the season
That's a nice 53cm increase for Spencers Creek - 165.5cm
Gerg's prediction of 160cm max snow depth.... demolished. Happily.
Assuming we get some good falls through to Saturday, and the 16th-18th system comes off next week... could hit the magic 2M mark by next Thursday! Cross your bits people!
p.s. Gerg, Can we please get the new projection chart based on 165cm 9th August? Just for giggles
p.p.s Charts are looking very 2003 like now across the 3 measuring areas. Still waiting for 3 Mile to be updated though.
So, a 53 cm increase at Spencers puts 2012 a grey dot width above average and a tad above the median. By my reading of Gerg's graph of dump frequency this is a one in eight year event. Selwyn, a la Deep Ck, still came in at 0.0 cm since depth was measured this morning and dumpage began mid pm... W
240cm by 15th of Sept.... The year of the August and early September Dumpos
Happy to be wrong ... but not, yet:
3-month AAO has turned the wrong way:
So with my very limited knowledge of the AAO index positive shift means a reduction in precipitation/moisture values? and the emergence of spring like weather patterns??
Just the first of those, but the effect is slight (AAO "explains" about 10-15% of the observed variation).
There will be no reading this Thursday.
So no real reason to get excited about the AAO if it's only 10 to 15% of variation in precipitation. Take the downpour over the Snowy Mtns which filled Lake Jindabyne in the first week of March. A record breaker but due to the other 85 -90% of factors. Just noticed on the BoM a new chart and text explaining climate influences on Oz. SAM is there but not AAO 'cos they're the one and same. And agent BM do you mean no Snowy Hydro readings?.. W
No he reads short stories to a group of elderly women at the nursing home each thursday and wont be able to make it this week
I said that because I was thinking it will be far too snowy for them to get anywhere near Spencers Creek.
They're tough lads ... used to avoid snowy days, but long time since they've missed now.
Believe it or not, but we could surpass the equivalent reading for year 2000 if it goes up 31cm from last week.
With compaction. IMO we may see little + or little - last weeks reading, even with the top ups we've been getting.