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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Gerg, May 31, 2012.
160 Â± 53 cm ....
WTF!? It went down....162.4cm
Not surprising at all.
I thought there was a bit of a dump last thursday / friday and cold weather since. Oh well, at least I get there 8am Saturday...this weekend....sure there will be plenty.
That would have packed down since then.
There is often a decrease the week after a big snowfall I've noticed. I assume it is just the snowpack consolidating which leads to reduced depth.
Most of the 10-15cm reported last Friday morning I thought came mostly from snowfalls during the day Thursday so it may have been captured in last Thursday reading depending what time they measured.
All of the above, and noting that often the compaction isn't so obvious in readings when the snowfall happens a few days before the reading, whereas it was completely fresh last week.
Horse not quite dead?
Compaction, PLUS a lot of melt. I was skiing Sunday and Monday at Perisher and it was 5C plus for most of the day. You could actually see the snow "wilting" throughout the day.
I'm happy with only 3cm loss since the big dump based on the above. If tonight / tomorrow comes off as expected we will probably go over 2 metres this weekend. But I think there will be some hot days before the next reading so we won't see the real peak.
It's never to snowy on Thursdays!!!!!
Extra reading taken today apparently, 183.2cm.
Could / should break 200cm if the systems coming through late this week come off.
A reading of 183 cm appearing on Spencers Ck. An early reading and not as much as expected.
Just read above posts
given what folk have reported about the weather and snow conditions of the weekend that figure is no great surprise.
Holy dooly... just did a comparison with '92 on the snowy hydro calculator... so far the pattern is uncanny! Hope it continues the same trend
Pre-season multiple regression model probability of exceeding 2m was 22%; 3m about 0.4%. Would have improved a touch based on YTD depth. Original model parameters have barely moved.
The really interesting part of that graph series is the lack of snow at lower levels, compared to 1992 ie 3 mile dam. Thinking global warming ;-)
Stay on topic - global warming discussions to CV please.
I was there during that 92 dump.....bloody awesome. Progged for up to about its current level if the rain happens.....some loss then build up.
the Mt Perisher triple chair seemed to be pretty close to the ground on the weekend, seemed to be not a lot of clearance between skier's heads and skis passing overhead. probably well over 2m on the ground up there.
You should have seen base of Summit chair at Blue cow on Saturday morning, the lifties had to dig a massive hole out so your boards / skis didn't get stuck just after loading!
1992 had the heavy Pinatubo eruption influence, while anything is possible I'd say a repeat of 92 would be very unlikely.
There are signs of more cold outbreaks over the next few weeks so we'll see how we are looking come September 1st....
I'm thinking a peak of between 200 & 250cm will be likely at SC
Just thinking about recent seasons.
2007 - early but rubbish finish.
2008 - late but great
2009 - early but rubbish finish.
2010 - late but great
2011 - early but rubbish finish.
2012 - late but great
Ok I'm being a bit simplistic here, and mainly thinking from a Victorian viewpoint. But it seems that every second year we have had 'big Augusts' following average (or worse) June and Julys.
Whilst in the odd-numbered years..we've had good starts (average or above) which have faded rapidly due to warm/wet Augusts.
2012??? Late?? June was a cracker...July and early August was rubbish,
Like PG said... from a VIC (and most of NSW) point of view, June was pretty shit.
From a Perisher POV (above 1600m) this has been a very solid season. Almost spot on average until recently when it has gone into the better than average (great?) realm.
It'd be nice if the "late but great" spreads some of the love to the rest of the resorts over the rest of August and September. Cross your fingers kids
It's been very dry in the interior of Australia this month and the August-to-date daytime maximum temperature anomaly for Australia is +0.68 (that's warm).
So I'd suggest that the potential for a few 'hair dryer' days in the next month is high.
Down a touch at 171.1cm:
2m for next week?
The obs are interesting but at the end of the day Ive been skiing since June, not complaining one bit. Some real sh*tty days but you get that. Some crackers too. Just saying.
Talking from a NSW perspective the good days have far outweighed the bad days- While up until recently the snow depth hasnt been there especially at the lower levels but the quality of the snow has been very good with very few rain days.
Had a ski at Perisher yesterday- first ski since the dumps, In some places the depth had increased dramatically but in other places it was very similar- Every year I have a few rocks which are my indicator of season depth and there is also a ruler on Burnum Burnum which said 80cm...My rocks were still no where near the snow level of what they were in 2004- I would guestimate somewhere around the 1.5m mark- not complaining though bloody quality 1.5m of snow
I noticed anything exposed to the sun has decreased in depth dramatically
I also notice there was a huge amount of windblown from the main range came in to perisher on last saturday, and spencers tends to get benefit from this as well. I would be surprised if there was a big loss tomorrow
First 2m season for nearly a decade (8 years, actually).
Ummm, 2m used to be the average peak depth...
Nice thing about this season is that (unlike last year) there's been regular falls, with a depth gain most weeks. Means lots get to ski a reasonable quality surface.
What is so different about this year's weather? It's not in the AAO.
I was just trying to explain this the other day, in seasons gone past, we have had system after system bringing snow. In the past 10 or so years, it seems that there are less fronts peaking over SE Australia, so we get a big dump then have to wait another 2 or 3 weeks for the next snow bearing system! This season has been quite good for cold fronts peaking at just the right spot!
Except at Buller!
also its been surprising how many systems have been arriving thurs/friday, meaning reasonably good topups for the weekends?
Unfortunately for the weekend warriors the 'day' has always been the Friday.
Skied last Friday at Hotham which was the pick of the bunch, but missed the Friday before at Buller, currently contemplating tomorrow....
I concur this will be the 4th friday in a row for fresh snow for me.
Congratulations everyone we did it 2m season
I am stoked we got to 2m!
I am sad to be leaving OS for 6 weeks
What chance we can knock off 2004s 225cm peak? A fair bit left in this system and another front next wednesday looks likely. I don't think so since they won't be big falls and a fair bit of warm/rain looks likely next Tuesday/wednesday. Then aain ECM/GFS both indicating a follow up front for next week around Friday so that might give it a chance but that would still mean almost a week of compaction before the next reading.
Either way looks like a late season to go with the early start, with maybe an early or even mid September peak and as much if not more snow on the ground then in sep 2004 since the thaw was on in earnest from late august 2004.
Check this out:
Yes 404, Petersons post appeared a few months ago. You could say it's uncannily on the mark. But then he admits that the 2005 to 2011 data set of predictions were a little generous so to speak compared to the actual observations. Anyway it's whet my appetite for his 2013 prediction.
As for lower level snow depths such as 3 Mile Dam aka Selwyn the Snowy Hydro site has not got the reading for today but it was only 4.4cm last week. The disparity between the 1500m level and 1700m is still enormous and has been all season.....W
think the warm temps and the rain in the next front will do more harm than than good if the current forecast plays out
Full moon tomorrow as well, that always bodes well for snowfall.
it's been fridays since march.... started every fourth friday, then every second now every week.
Nearly every system that has looked too warm this far out has been good above 1700m this year. Expect this will come into line, but this is for predictions thread. There are a few systems programmed out to 12th September. IMO we will stay over 2M for a couple of weeks into September.
Looking very 2003 on the Snowy Hydro comparisons...
I've been waiting all season for someone to trot out the old "Full moon brings snow" thing.
I particularly like the way those people are eerily silent whenever the full moon doesn't bring snow!