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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Gerg, May 31, 2012.
Saw on channel 10 news a snow depth of snow185 reported but can't seem to find that anywhere else.
Perisher's website is saying 186.6cm at spencer's creek
Good enough. So do we have our peak?
do you think it will still be ok to ski at hotham in late sept?
Unless they measure tomorrow I would think yes.
Nope,be fine for snowboards though........
Stay on topic.
Ask in the Hotham forum.
Perhaps this topic ...
On the matter of <a href="https://www.mso.anu.edu.au/~peterson/snowdepth.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Peterson</a>, here is prediction vs performance assuming last week was our 2012 peak:
You can see that the good doctor's periodic model has fluked a few hits (as should be expected from any fitted model...), but on the whole is punching too high. The fundamental problem with a periodic model is that there <a href="https://www.ski.com.au/forums/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Board=6&Number=1345513&page=0&fpart=3" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">are no regular cycles</a> in our snow depths.
The peak has peaked
It's all downhill from here
Word on the hill is that the dust from last week is really eating away at the snow. Some holes now coming through at smiggins quite quickly.
Incidentally, that makes two pre-season predictions in a row on target:
2011 predicted 177 Â± 50 cm; outcome 164.6
2012 predicted 160 Â± 53 cm; outcome 204.1
On average this model should miss about one year in three, so next year I guess it's due.
[Sorry it's such crap, but that really is the best that can be done ... err, except maybe with some bent fencing wire.]
I would think a prediction of between 110 and 210cm you would get it right most years. It is a huge erring ratio of around 30% either way which actually means a nominal difference in your prediction of around 100% from the minimum
Yeah, it's a crap model; maybe I'll just give up on it.
Note that in the last two decades we've had peak depths all the way from under 1m to over 3m. It's just a noisy series. Too much depends on whether that big system is 1 degree too warm, or peaks a little too early, or whatever.
Perisher reporting 215.5cm in todays report.
Seems Snowy Hydro may have done another sneaky Monday update and given us what will probably be the peak of the season (unless Thursday mornings front comes on stronger than forecast).
Also looks like Gergs model for the year has been blown (just).
Please don't give it up Gerg. I look forward to the battle of the model vs nature each year. It keeps me coming back to this forum
If for no other reason, if you set the bar low, it's exciting to watch the bar get broken
Same thing happened in 2009. There was some dust storm activity in South Australia recently and Alice Springs is on track to break its all-time stretch of days without rain (which is about 140 in a row).
213.5cm is today's updated reading.
You've just described skiing in Australia.
BTW I love how you arrived at that conclusion, keep it up!
Gerg, finally got around to reading this thread in its entirety. It's a staple for me each year. Thanks for the effort again.
So what's the damage?
Hence another Ozi snow descriptor - ' you should have been here last week' (;-/
(apologies to any fisherfolk!)
The snow pack up high seems to be holding up well, Spencer's 206cm. This time of year it has all compacted down and has crust layers, so it holds up surprisingly well.
I just looked and compared it to 1992, when I skiied late into the season to the closing weekend. At this time that year Spencer's had 316cm.
The interesting difference is the lower elevations. This year deep creek has 52cm now, in 92 it had 190cm.
This year has been an awesome consistent season up high, 1600m+, but poor below that.
Yeah, snow is really hanging on up high; must be dense. Expect an epic spring out on main range. (Quiet warning: Aus really does have avalanches ... big wet ones ... take care.)
Hey Gerg, does your model take into account the trend of olympic year 4 yr good season cycles?
168.5cm is the update.
Now officially below average, for first time in two months. An outstanding season by today's standards.
Yes 105.2cm on Thursday morning but a dump is in progress with 30mm in the gauge at PB to 9am. However cams show lots of bare patches and windblown stashes. Should put a bit of a blip in the curve tho'...W
Did you factor in cloud seeding ?
How can they say how it adds 14% snow fall ?
Cloud Seeding get green light by NSW Gov
Interesting how consistent that decline rate is, year to year. (The average curve is biased high by a few big seasons; the median gives a better idea.)
day lengthening led ablation??
Definitely about day length. Sum up at 6am at the moment and down after 8pm. That's 14 hours compared to 10 in mid winter. Not only more direct heating of the snow surface but more heating of the landmass in general so all of a sudden a north westerly can blow in at 20 degrees C instead of near 0 degrees C that you get in winter when the interior of the continent is colder than the ocean.
Ah Maj, ablation leading to suncups? Anyway the depth is down to 25.8cm on 25/10 and has been losing 7cm/day so it's as good as gone at the snowdepth course....W
0 cm today
this was a good season. can't help but observe what seems to be a trend to lower snow amounts.
Good for NSW & northern Vic. Not so good for southern Vic.
was terrible in WA
if you close one eye and most of the other so you can only see from 2006 onwards, the graph looks pretty good and trending upwards...
6 years isn't long enough to observe a reliable trend. My geoscience lecturer told us that a sample of about 30 years is needed to analyse climate. which works pretty well here
1960 must have been fantastic.
I remember 1964, also great, and the poor 1999 followed by excellent 2000.
Per the late starter thread, 2000 was the year I started taking skiing seriously.
I think a wink may have been involved jontsy
It's a noisy series so trends tend to hide. The interesting trend is in the metre.weeks, which includes effects from season length as well as depth. And the interesting thing about the metre.weeks trend is that (by eye), it appears to be partly due to variance compression (less and less really big seasons over time). A nice undergrad research project in that, maybe.
I noticed that too. Perhaps global cooling is imminent?
Like the sound of that!
Woops, I think you're right.
That is interesting, would love to do some more research on Australia's alpine climate. It's a shame Sydney Uni doesn't offer any courses in meterology or climate (they teach it a bit under geology)