Season 2012 snow depth

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Gerg, May 31, 2012.

  1. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Saw on channel 10 news a snow depth of snow185 reported but can't seem to find that anywhere else.
     
  2. snowMac

    snowMac Hard Yards

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    Perisher's website is saying 186.6cm at spencer's creek
     
  3. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Good enough. So do we have our peak?

    [​IMG]
     
    #203 Gerg, Sep 7, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  4. jgj

    jgj First Runs

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    do you think it will still be ok to ski at hotham in late sept?
     
  5. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Unless they measure tomorrow I would think yes.
     
    #205 loweee, Sep 7, 2012
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  6. Camelot

    Camelot One of Us

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    Nope,be fine for snowboards though........
     
    #206 Camelot, Sep 7, 2012
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #208 Claude Cat, Sep 7, 2012
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  9. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    On the matter of <a href="https://www.mso.anu.edu.au/~peterson/snowdepth.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Peterson</a>, here is prediction vs performance assuming last week was our 2012 peak:

    [​IMG]

    You can see that the good doctor's periodic model has fluked a few hits (as should be expected from any fitted model...), but on the whole is punching too high. The fundamental problem with a periodic model is that there <a href="https://www.ski.com.au/forums/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&amp;Board=6&amp;Number=1345513&amp;page=0&amp;fpart=3" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">are no regular cycles</a> in our snow depths.
     
    #209 Gerg, Sep 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  10. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The peak has peaked

    It's all downhill from here
     
  11. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Word on the hill is that the dust from last week is really eating away at the snow. Some holes now coming through at smiggins quite quickly.
     
    #211 loweee, Sep 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  12. JoeKing

    JoeKing Old n' Thrusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #212 JoeKing, Sep 10, 2012
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  13. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Incidentally, that makes two pre-season predictions in a row on target:

    2011 predicted 177 ± 50 cm; outcome 164.6
    2012 predicted 160 ± 53 cm; outcome 204.1

    On average this model should miss about one year in three, so next year I guess it's due.

    [Sorry it's such crap, but that really is the best that can be done ... err, except maybe with some bent fencing wire.]
     
  14. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    I would think a prediction of between 110 and 210cm you would get it right most years. It is a huge erring ratio of around 30% either way which actually means a nominal difference in your prediction of around 100% from the minimum
     
  15. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Yeah, it's a crap model; maybe I'll just give up on it.

    Note that in the last two decades we've had peak depths all the way from under 1m to over 3m. It's just a noisy series. Too much depends on whether that big system is 1 degree too warm, or peaks a little too early, or whatever.
     
  16. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    #216 BlueHue, Sep 11, 2012
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  17. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Please don't give it up Gerg. I look forward to the battle of the model vs nature each year. It keeps me coming back to this forum [​IMG]

    If for no other reason, if you set the bar low, it's exciting to watch the bar get broken [​IMG]
     
    #217 PowWow, Sep 11, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  18. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Same thing happened in 2009. There was some dust storm activity in South Australia recently and Alice Springs is on track to break its all-time stretch of days without rain (which is about 140 in a row).
     
    #218 Rush, Sep 11, 2012
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  19. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    213.5cm is today's updated reading.
     
  20. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You've just described skiing in Australia.

    BTW I love how you arrived at that conclusion, keep it up!
     
    #220 CarveMan, Sep 13, 2012
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  21. Fisher's Ghost

    Fisher's Ghost A Local

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    Gerg, finally got around to reading this thread in its entirety. It's a staple for me each year. Thanks for the effort again.
     
  22. phantomas

    phantomas Hard Yards

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    So what's the damage?
     
  23. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence another Ozi snow descriptor - ' you should have been here last week' (;-/
    (apologies to any fisherfolk!)
     
    #223 snowgum, Sep 20, 2012
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  24. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The snow pack up high seems to be holding up well, Spencer's 206cm. This time of year it has all compacted down and has crust layers, so it holds up surprisingly well.

    I just looked and compared it to 1992, when I skiied late into the season to the closing weekend. At this time that year Spencer's had 316cm.

    The interesting difference is the lower elevations. This year deep creek has 52cm now, in 92 it had 190cm.

    This year has been an awesome consistent season up high, 1600m+, but poor below that.
     
    #224 robbo mcs, Sep 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2013
  25. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Yeah, snow is really hanging on up high; must be dense. Expect an epic spring out on main range. (Quiet warning: Aus really does have avalanches ... big wet ones ... take care.)

    [​IMG]
     
    #225 Gerg, Sep 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Hey Gerg, does your model take into account the trend of olympic year 4 yr good season cycles?
     
  27. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    168.5cm is the update.
     
  28. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Now officially below average, for first time in two months. An outstanding season by today's standards.
     
  29. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Yes 105.2cm on Thursday morning but a dump is in progress with 30mm in the gauge at PB to 9am. However cams show lots of bare patches and windblown stashes. Should put a bit of a blip in the curve tho'...W
     
  30. JimH

    JimH Hard Yards

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    #230 JimH, Oct 19, 2012
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  31. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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  32. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Interesting how consistent that decline rate is, year to year. (The average curve is biased high by a few big seasons; the median gives a better idea.)

    [​IMG]
     
    #232 Gerg, Oct 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    day lengthening led ablation??
     
  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Definitely about day length. Sum up at 6am at the moment and down after 8pm. That's 14 hours compared to 10 in mid winter. Not only more direct heating of the snow surface but more heating of the landmass in general so all of a sudden a north westerly can blow in at 20 degrees C instead of near 0 degrees C that you get in winter when the interior of the continent is colder than the ocean.
     
    #234 Snow Blowey, Oct 22, 2012
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  35. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Ah Maj, ablation leading to suncups? Anyway the depth is down to 25.8cm on 25/10 and has been losing 7cm/day so it's as good as gone at the snowdepth course....W
     
  36. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    0 cm today
     
  37. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #237 Gerg, Nov 4, 2012
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  38. jontsy

    jontsy Hard Yards

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    this was a good season. can't help but observe what seems to be a trend to lower snow amounts.
     
  39. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good for NSW &amp; northern Vic. Not so good for southern Vic.
     
  40. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    was terrible in WA
     
  41. D_Dog

    D_Dog Hard Yards

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    if you close one eye and most of the other so you can only see from 2006 onwards, the graph looks pretty good and trending upwards...
     
  42. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #242 Gerg, Nov 5, 2012
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  43. jontsy

    jontsy Hard Yards

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    6 years isn't long enough to observe a reliable trend. My geoscience lecturer told us that a sample of about 30 years is needed to analyse climate. which works pretty well here
     
    #243 jontsy, Nov 5, 2012
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  44. person s

    person s Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    1960 must have been fantastic.
    I remember 1964, also great, and the poor 1999 followed by excellent 2000.
    Per the late starter thread, 2000 was the year I started taking skiing seriously.
     
  45. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    I think a wink may have been involved jontsy [​IMG]

    It's a noisy series so trends tend to hide. The interesting trend is in the metre.weeks, which includes effects from season length as well as depth. And the interesting thing about the metre.weeks trend is that (by eye), it appears to be partly due to variance compression (less and less really big seasons over time). A nice undergrad research project in that, maybe.
     
    #245 Gerg, Nov 5, 2012
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  46. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    I noticed that too. Perhaps global cooling is imminent?
     
    #246 Rush, Nov 5, 2012
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  47. JoeKing

    JoeKing Old n' Thrusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like the sound of that!
     
    #247 JoeKing, Nov 5, 2012
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  48. jontsy

    jontsy Hard Yards

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    Woops, I think you're right.

    That is interesting, would love to do some more research on Australia's alpine climate. It's a shame Sydney Uni doesn't offer any courses in meterology or climate (they teach it a bit under geology)
     
    #248 jontsy, Nov 6, 2012
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